India-China Relations are Marked by Strategic Stability, Tactical Aggressiveness

Gurmeet Kanwal

Visiting Fellow, VIF

Relations between India and China have been fairly stable at the strategic level. Economic relations are much better now than these have been in the past. Mutual economic dependence is growing rapidly even though the balance of trade is skewed in China’s favour. 

The two countries have been cooperating in international fora like WTO talks and climate change negotiations. There has even been some cooperation in energy security. However, at the tactical level, China has been exhibiting a markedly assertive political, diplomatic and military attitude. Instability in the security relationship, in particular, has the potential to act as a spoiler; and, it is this relationship that will ultimately determine whether the two Asian giants will clash or cooperate for mutual gains. The major cause for instability in the China-India relationship is the half-century old territorial and boundary dispute over which the two countries fought a border war in 1962.

The pointers to the future are not particularly positive. China continues to be in physical occupation of large areas of Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir. On the Aksai Chin plateau in Ladakh in J&K, China is in possession of approximately 38,000 square kilometres of territory since the mid-1950s. In addition, Pakistan illegally ceded 5,180 sq km of Indian territory to China in 1963 in the Shaksgam Valley of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir under a bilateral boundary agreement that India does not recognise. Close to this area, the Chinese built the Karakoram highway that now provides a strategic land link between Xinjiang, Tibet and Pakistan. China continues to stake its claim to about 96,000 sq km of Indian territory in the eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls Southern Tibet. 

Chinese interlocutors have repeatedly claimed that the Tawang Tract, in particular, is part of Tibet and that the merger of this area with Tibet is non-negotiable. In 2005, India and China had agreed on “guiding principles and parameters” for a political solution to the territorial dispute. One important parameter was that “settled populations will not be disturbed”. In the case of Tawang, the Chinese have gone back on their commitment. If such errant behavior continues, India will find it difficult to accept Chinese assurances of peaceful resolution of the territorial dispute at face value.

The Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China is yet to be physically demarcated on the ground and delineated on military maps. In fact, despite the Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (BPTA) signed with the Chinese in 1993 and the agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field signed in 1996, border guards of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have transgressed the LAC repeatedly to intrude into Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. They have even objected to Indian road construction efforts and the presence of Indian graziers at their traditional grazing grounds. To be fair to the Chinese, they too claim similar transgressions by Indian patrols.

Patrol face-offs are commonplace and usually end with both the sides warning each other to go back to their own territory. While no such incident has resulted in a violent clash so far, the probability of such an occurrence is high. Demarcation of the LAC without prejudice to each other’s position on the territorial dispute would be an excellent confidence building measure but little progress has been made in 15 rounds of talks between the two Special Representatives, including the January 2012 meting at New Delhi. Under the circumstances, China’s intransigence in exchanging maps showing the alignment of the LAC in the western and the eastern sectors is difficult to understand. 

The military gap between Indian and China is growing steadily as the PLA is modernising at a rapid pace due to the double-digit annual growth in the Chinese defence budget while India’s military modernisation plans continue to remain mired in red tape. China’s negotiating strategy is to stall resolution of the dispute till the Chinese are in a much stronger position in terms of comprehensive national strength so that they can then dictate terms. The rapidly blossoming strategic partnership between China and Pakistan is also a major cause for concern. Chinese leaders have proclaimed that their friendship with Pakistan is “higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans.” China has also guaranteed Pakistan’s territorial integrity.

During any future conflict with either China or Pakistan – even though the probability is low, India will have to contend with a two-front situation as each is likely to collude militarily with the other – a situation for which the Indian armed forces are not prepared. Hence, it is in India’s interest to strive for the early resolution of the territorial dispute with China so that India has only one major military adversary to contend with.

Tense But Together

Kanwal Sibal
Member Advisory Board, VIF

To assess the outcome of the fourth BRICS summit at New Delhi on March 29, a look is required at the genesis of this grouping, its value for its members and the extent to which it can influence international decision-making.

The origin of BRICS lies in the RIC (Russia-India-China) group set up formally at Russia’s initiative in 2002 to promote multipolarity at a peak moment of American unilateralism and to give Russia a platform to exercise its great power role diminished by the Soviet Union’s collapse and Western geo-political pressures on its periphery.

Around 2006, Russia concluded that RIC had internal limitations because of India-China differences, and that the BRIC concept, with Brazil’s inclusion, would better subsume them, besides strengthening even more the political as well as the economic base of multipolarity. The inclusion of Brazil, the largest South American country and the fourth emerging economy identified by Goldman Sachs in 2001, gave a certain coherence to the group. It also facilitated Russia’s political re-entry into South America from where it had retreated after the Soviet collapse.

China, with its diplomatic and economic offensive in Africa and especially its expanded engagement with South Africa, put its imprint on the BRIC group by successfully pushing for the latter’s inclusion in December 2010. This has given greater geographical representation to the group and strengthened further its multipolar, non-Western character.

Russia’s interest in RIC/BRIC/ BRICS has been more political than economic. It lacks, in any case, the capacity to carve out an economic and commercial sphere of influence in these emerging economies. On the financial side, though, it has since 2006 spoken against the dollar as the principal international reserve currency as it gives the United States of America excessive influence in global affairs, besides inflicting on others the consequences of its consumer profligacy and financial mismanagement.

India’s approach has been practical. Initially, it too was perturbed by US unilateralist tendencies and felt pressure on nuclear and Pakistan related matters, and consequently supported Russian advocacy of multipolarity. The RIC format also enhanced India’s international stature in general and vis a vis China in particular. Its membership of a non-Western group with the potential to bring about a better global balance was consistent with its independent approach to international affairs. However, with its improved relationship with the US, especially after the nuclear deal transformed it strategically, India is sensitive to any undue anti-US/ Western thrust of the group.

India was not initially enthusiastic about RIC’s extension to BRIC politically as it lacked then its present profile. India had no issue with BRIC existing separately as an economic group to focus on World Trade Organisation matters and headed by commerce or trade ministers, rather than by foreign ministers as Russia wanted and succeeded in eventually bringing about. India had reservations about South Africa’s inclusion in order to preserve IBSA’s salience as a South-South grouping. While India benefits from RIC/BRIC politics that reduces Western domination, it has sought to de-emphasize the perceived anti-Western political logic of these groups by putting the accent on their economic agenda.

China was tentative towards RIC to begin with, but after the first meeting became more confident about its participation. It might not have wanted, initially, to play second fiddle to Russia or play into Russian hands against the US, or it might have been uncomfortable with India gaining an enhanced stature. The Chinese were even unresponsive to Indian moves to boost the economic content of RIC. But with its own outreach to India later and its economic penetration of South America and Africa that followed, it now participates actively within the group.

Now that China is the foremost economic power within BRICS, and is headed towards surpassing the US in economic size, its preponderance in the economic and financial agenda of the group will keep increasing. The internal equations within BRICS will inevitably move in China’s favour, principally at Russia’s expense, in great power terms. Even though both countries need each other strategically to counter US hegemony, and China’s economic stakes in the US being incomparably greater than those of Russia, it will be interesting to watch the eventual internal balance in the group on how far to challenge the West.

Western reaction to BRICS has moved from some strategic concern to a touch of indifference to renewed attention. The RIC seemed an embryonic strategic challenge to the West, but as its impact proved limited and as it was assumed that the relations of each member with the US surpassed in importance intra-BRIC relations, it ceased evoking much interest even with Brazil’s addition and the emergence of the overlapping BRIC group.

Today, with financial turmoil and economic difficulties sapping the self-confidence of Western countries, healthy growth rates in China and India aiding global economic recovery, and Brazil at last beginning to realize its potential, BRICS cannot be ignored. Western sceptics point, though, to intra-BRIC differences, especially between India and China, and the undercurrents of strategic discomfort between Russia and China, as an obstacle to any broad range genuine partnership between these countries.

Yet, what the BRICS countries collectively represent is impressive. They account for 43 per cent of the world’s population, more than 26 per cent of the global gross domestic product and the world’s land area, and hold four trillion dollars in combined foreign reserves. China and India are expected to become the first and the third largest economies by 2050, with Brazil and Russia in the fifth and sixth positions.

More concerted deliberations by them will influence the way in which the international community addresses the present imbalance in international political and economic governance. With every summit the BRICS agenda is becoming more substantive.

At the New Delhi summit the five countries called for greater representation of emerging and developing countries in global governance and expressed concern about the economic and financial policies of developed countries spilling over negatively into the emerging market economies. They lectured on the need to adopt responsible macroeconomic and financial policies, the need to avoid creating excessive global liquidity and the need to undertake structural reforms of their own. They criticized the slow pace of International Monetary Fund quota reforms and welcomed, without agreeing on any one in particular, the candidatures from the developing world for the World Bank presidency. They discussed the creation of a new development bank for infrastructure projects in BRICS and other developing economies, a project on which a joint working group will report to the next summit. An agreement on extending credits in local currency under the BRICS Interbank Cooperation mechanism has been reached.

All these are initial steps to obtain greater say in managing the global financial system and diluting the supremacy of the dollar, even as it is clear that progress on this will be slow and the biggest beneficiary will be China.

On political issues, the BRICS position on Iran challenges Western policy by clearly opposing military action against Iran, but the cautious formulation on Syria does not ignore Western and Arab concerns while rejecting regime change. Regrettably, Chinese reticence explains the absence of support from this group for India’s and Brazil’s candidature for permanent United Nations security council membership. This reflects the as yet unsettled political equations within the group that will detract from its global impact.

Vivekananda International Foundation & the Heritage Foundation: A Bilateral Initiative

A Seminar on “Perspectives on Cooperation in the Asia Pacific Region” was held between 30^th April and 1^st May 2012 in New Delhi. The Heritage Foundation was represented by Mr. Walter Lohman, Director, Asian Studies Center, Ms. Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center and Mr. Dean Cheng, Research Fellow, Chinese Political & Security Affairs. The focus of the Seminar centered primarily on the India-U.S., India-China and India-U.S. – China relationships in the 21^st Century.

The Director of the Vivekananda International Foundation, Mr. Ajit K. Doval initiated the proceedings and emphasized the global shift in power towards Asia, and India in particular, that could be described as a swing state in global international affairs. Walter Lohman on his part reiterated the status of the U.S. as a resident power in Asia marked by a strategic outplay in the Asia Pacific owing primarily to China’s spectacular rise and Asia’s response to it.

Emerging Global Strategic & Economic Environment in the Asia Pacific was the theme of Session I with presentations made by Ambassador P.P. Shukla, Joint Director, Vivekananda International Foundation, Mr. Walter Lohman, and Ambassador Rajiv Sikri, former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs. India-China and India-U.S Relations was the theme for Session II that included presentation by Mr. Walter Lohman, Prof. Sujit Dutta, Gandhi Chair, Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Jamia Milia Islamia, Ms. Lisa Curtis and Brig. (Retd.) Gurmeet Kanwal, Adjunct Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington. Session III focussed on the theme of China’s Military Modernization Programme that was chaired by General N.C. Vij, former Chief of Army Staff, followed by presentations by Mr. Dean Cheng, Brig. (Retd.) Arun Sahgal, Joint Director, Institute of National Security Studies and also Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli, Center for Chinese Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Session IV dealt with the theme Maritime Security and Military Space Concerns chaired by Vice Admiral (Retd.) Raman Puri, former Chief of Integrated Defence Staff and the session was marked by presentations by Vice Admiral (Retd.) Barry Barathan, Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda Foundation, Mr. Dean Cheng and Brig. (Retd.) Rahul Bhonsle, of Security Risks.com.

The second day of the proceedings focused on the Salience of Tibet, Af-Pak and Myanmar in Indian and U.S. foreign and strategic policies and chaired by Ms. Lisa Curtis. Mr. Thubten Samphel, Director, Tibet Policy Institute, Dharamshala, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Ravi Sawhney, Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda Foundation, Mr. Dean Cheng, and Mr. Walter Lohman made the presentations on the issues delineated above. The final session of the Seminar was on Indo-U.S. Relations and the Way Forward and Chaired by Ambassador P.P. Shukla followed by presentations by Ms. Lisa Curtis and Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary. The concluding remarks were made by Ambassador Satish Chandra, former Deputy National Security Advisor and currently, Distinguished Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation.

He noted that the seminar had promoted a better understanding of the situation in the Asia Pacific and also a better appreciation of the U.S. and Indian perspectives in this regard. Hopefully, this initiative would serve as the first of many such bilateral endeavours between the two organizations. The deliberations during the course of the seminar were distinctive by the high level of convergence in the perspectives of the Indian and U.S. proponents with a desire for more effective cooperation.

Report prepared by Nidhi Bhatnagar

Iran, Israel and India's Interests

Barry Bharathan
Distinguished Fellow, VIF & Former Vice Chief, Indian Navy

Geo Politics of Civilisations and Culture

Two civilisations, India and Iran and a very ancient culture consecrated in the creation of Israel are in an enigmatic triangle. India is involuntarily at the apex with inimical, Iran and Israel at the two distanced points of this triangle.

India has managed relations on an “Iran & Israel” approach. Iran supplies nearly 12% of oil and the promise of gas though a pipeline is also a critical consideration. An agreement on this pipeline would also perhaps bring down the confrontationist temperature existing in the region. This may be also a pipe dream in the present context of India-Pakistan-China geo-political intransigence. Many also believe that India and Iran enjoy a civilisational relationship that endures periodic differences. Israel and India cooperation that began in the early 90's has progressively evolved into a robust engagement across the span of defense, agriculture, science, technology and research. In many ways, over the last two decades India has successfully responded to “Shalom and Salaam ale kum” of both Israel and Iran. The 13th February attack on an Israeli diplomat's car, the American led Western isolation of Iran has triggered of a reaction asking for India to choose a Iran or Israel approach. The house is divided on this as is expected in our democracy. Pressure from USA too is a significant factor. The media, information highway is full of articles assuming polarised positions. Whatever be the views, India's Interests come first and foremost.

Never a Zero Sum Game

International relationship is never a zero sum game. This self evident truth shows up in all the "Geo Political and Military" happening in the South Asian, Central Asian, Gulf; land and ocean Mass over the last two decades. Most critically, this entire swathe has been subject to cross currents of International interests, inter and intra country upheavals. Artificial divisions of the region by the British also spawned regional tensions. Israeli - Arab animosity, the Iran - Iraq war, the Cold War between the super powers, the, then unique Iraq- Soviet Union engagement and the incessant quest for energy has scarred this swathe into being a land of constant violence, conflict, radical ethnicity and geo-political instability. In effect whatever path India chooses, would be irrelevant in the background of a much larger and simmering volcano of visceral distrust and misperceptions. Even on this single factor India would perhaps do well to maintain status quo in its Iran and Israel relationships.

USA and China

USA and China too are intrinsic to this construct. The former has binding, bonding ties with the Jewish state. It is at present in the politics of confrontation with the Persians on a host of well known issues. Iran's nuclear posturing and anti American stand off, rattles the West. It is also an avowed enemy of Israel with openly declared intentions of completely destroying the latter. The probability of a pre emptive Israeli strike on Iran with attendant ramifications cannot be ruled out. Its attack on Iraq, years ago cannot be forgotten. China has a unique Iran relationship. It is a silent, covert supplier of nuclear and missile material to Iran. Maragin steel for centrifuges, that since have been destroyed by Israel, and the silk worm missiles are but a few glaring examples of Chinese complicity. This is in line with a China policy of pursuing a path of setting up a long-term presence in the Middle East and Africa. An important and ignored aspect is Beijing's plans to influence affairs in Afghanistan, Central Asia. In more ways than one, the wake of an American led NATO withdrawal is waiting to be filled in by China supported by Pakistan. Iran is a proxy Ocean guarantor along with Pakistan. The port of Gwadar and Mir Quasim are already being readied for China.

Cross Domino Effects

There are also some cross domino effects that need to be in the calculus of Gulf geo politics. A few of them are:

Shia- Sunni Schism

The historic Shia- Sunni schism is a silent strategic divider in the region. This divide constantly simmers between tension and violent confrontation. Arab spring happenings do involve this divide in its own dynamic. This Islamic schism is violent, visceral and unrelenting over the last several centuries,

Saudi Arabian - American Appliqué

Applique virtually means external application or superimposition. Appliqué is indeed apt in describing the American- Saudi Arabian connection in the context of a democracy dealing with a theocratic monarchy. The USA, the lone super power, is committed to the free World and the idealism of democracy. Yet it has an open and also closed long lasting relationship with the Saudis. In more ways than one, this borders on invidiousness. Saudi Arabia is distinctly a totalitarian theocracy. It is also a strident sponsor of International terrorism. The horrific 9/11 World Trade Centre attack had many Saudi nationals. Al Qaeda was spawned there and is resident in that kingdom. Saudi Arabian relationship with China and Pakistan is also unique. While USA is its prime arms and military training ally, it is purported to have missiles from China. Terrorism in Pakistan flourishes with Saudi Arabian money. Closer home, in India too, its efforts in engaging many madrassas is motivated by a bigoted obsession to aggressively spread Islam at the cost of everything else. The porous polity of India is passive on this too. The USA is also impervious to a similar successful attempt in its own continent.

Wahabism

In the Gulf region this oil-rich kingdom follows Wahabi Islam alongside a closed society. Saudi Royalty with tacit American support has kept a stranglehold on its people. There is neither freedom nor fairness in that society in the name of Islam. Islamic views on the "infidel" (kafir) are perpetuated in Saudi Arabia. Wahabi ways condone many wrongdoings in the name of Allah. The Arab spring uprisings are only a symptom of the disease of unrest with no real end in sight. Egypt, Libya and now Syria are examples of failed and failing leadership. Western influence was the genesis and is now the ironic, iron force behind the people movement who aspire for freedom from autocratic regimes. It is no more a question of whether the Saudi royalty will cave in but when. This too is bound to trigger a tsunami of uncertainty and chaos! It would be a deja vu repeat of the collapse of the American- Iranian honey moon post the overthrow of Shah Reza Pahlavi.

Energy Security and Security of Energy

Global Energy needs are on exponential rise. Oil is black gold. It controls the pulse of International trade. Keeping sea lanes open and providing security to this energy are onerous tasks. The Persian Gulf, Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the concerned choke points are all vulnerable, but vital and valuable to ensure the flow of oil and gas from the Middle East to the East and Far East. Any conflict in the region is bound to have a catastrophic impact on energy availability." No oil, No care" is also an Arab fatalistic belief.

Arms Bazzar

The region spreading from the Gulf to the Far East is an arms bazaar. There is a plethora of lethal conventional weapons of intense concentration in the Gulf. The western countries headed by USA and China along with some eastern bloc countries led by Russia are part of the military vendors club. The famous book tilted Arms Bazaar by Anthony Sampson clearly illustrates that the military supplies have been on since the last four decades. More telling is the simple fact of backwards and volatile nations having easy and ready access to fierce fire power. Wild West syndrome echoes in the deserts, dunes and the waters of the land. The West is futilely trying to put out the fires that it had started decades ago!

Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is the “Life line” between West and East. Over 1000 million tons of oil pass through close to Indian shores every year. India is dependent on the seas for 95% of its trade and 80% for oil. It cannot simply afford to allow closure of sea lanes for more than 10 days. This Ocean being every one’s lake is the reality today. As the largest stake holder in the region we at least ought to know what is happening in our waters and be able to rightfully secure ourselves as a sovereign democracy. Others may sail away but we cannot. This subtle difference has gross, telling implications in effect, impact and consequences for the Sub-continent. What happens in the Persian Gulf will have a lasting, and long-term impact on all Indian Ocean rim countries. The Indian Ocean is a floating home to about 35 to 40 warships from different nations, not to speak about the Indian, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lankan navies and task Force 150 led by USA. At any given time there are at least 10 to 15 submarines transiting underwater. Nearly 2000 to 3000 merchant ships ranging from super tankers, gas carriers, cargo ships, container vessels, traverse these waterways every day. Fishing fleets, dhows, trawlers, exploratory vessels, big oil rigs also cross the sea lanes. In peace time alone the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the important straits from east to west are all subject to threats of:

• Mutual interference among submarines
• Environmental degradation due to discharge of dirty oil by empty oil tankers in violation of UNCLOS(United Nations Convention on laws of the Seas) agreed upon rules of behavior.
• Major oil Pollution disasters due to collisions between tankers.
• Tsunamis and cyclones.
• Low intensity threats of piracy, smuggling and hijacking.
• Strangulation of traffic, in choke points, due to any of the above.

In these circumstances to ask India to choose between Iran and Israel is hypothetically and geo-politically anathema.

Indian Interests

Indian interests do not need great debate and discussion. We are a benign power, a secular stable democracy from an ancient civilisation. The International arena flocks to us, despite our many endemic weaknesses. Therein lies our intrinsic strengths. Today, the world needs us. We never need to be in a position to choose but let others want us. Our Interests can be realised by being what we are. Let greater or lesser powers do the asking of India to be what it can be for their sake!

Iran

We need Iran for counter balancing the gulf security calculus. Western influence while being of immense use has inherent limitations of distanced and obtuse alien content. India has historic, cultural, commerce and trade foot prints that are etched in the DNA of the Mediterranean, Maghreb, Malacca, Near and Far East long before the influx of the Europeans. We simply cannot abdicate this even if we are tempted to unwittingly attempt this exercise. 12% of oil is also critical. Constructive engagement with Iran would give India some leverage towards resolution of pending contentious issues in the region. Equally important is the Chinese dragon that is breathing fire to anneal an agenda of its own. Countering this without confrontation requires an amalgamated, calming, Indian presence with tacit support of the other players in the region.

Israel

Many Israelis, specially from their Political, Military, diplomatic corps believe that their population is 1. 7 billion by simply adding their 3 half million to our people. They have a fervent belief that the Jews and Indians have a destiny together for the common good of the World. This small State adds great value to India and brings surgical precision to our diplomatic, military, and government matrices. India-Israel cooperation focuses on space, water management, non-conventional energy sources, nanotechnology, biotechnology and self reliance in military technology. There are also agrarian thrusts between both countries. Israel is our sixth largest trading partner. With trade value of nearly $10 billion and increasing, a bi-lateral free trade agreement is also in the offing. Israelis have also learned to live with our pro-Palestine Posture.

Gulf Countries

India enjoys a unique stature in the Arab World. In many ways, Pakistani attempt to discredit India has not found much favour. Over the years the number of Indians who work in the Gulf, have gone up significantly across various disciplines. This is indeed a major factor that brings in valuable foreign exchange, contributing to our economy. The Iraqi Air Force and Navy have once, been trained by us very well on Military basics. Oman and India have also a special relationship that has prospered over the years. Saudi Arabia and India too have now entered into a positive arrangement, highlighting a tectonic shift in perceptions. These have taken place despite our ongoing Israeli connection. India's decision not to join USA in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 was perhaps most prudent and strategically sensible. This has kept us in good stead and earned the appreciation of the regional leadership. Iran-India relationship is also perceived by the Middle East as a salutary influence in the region. India-GCC trade stands around $120 billion. Approximately 6 million Indian nationals work in the Gulf with yearly remittances of $30 billion. 70 to 75% of India’s energy imports are from the Gulf countries, including Iran. These are irrevocable links that have to be further strengthened.

Indian Sovereignty

We are a Sovereign system, with a track record of sound law and order in the national and international arena. Justice and prosecuting terrorist activities are part of our jurisprudence. It goes beyond consideration of our relationships. There is need for objectivity in our dealing with the attack on the Israeli diplomat with the heavy hand of the law. We also need to preempt any Israeli retaliation in our soil. On no account should we be seen as a vacillating system that is indecisive. Our handling of Kasab caught red handed in the 26/11 Mumbai attack, though frustrating does vindicate our full commitment to the letter of the law.

India's Signature Tune

India is an enigmatic miracle. The last 25 years has seen us grow as one of the leading economies starting with our liberalised economic strategy. 1998 saw us become a nuclear power. We are now recognised by the USA through the aegis of defense cooperation and Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation agreements. Several significant partnerships have also emerged with a host of G-8 and G-20 countries. Prospects of us being elected into the UN Security Council also appear bright.

India at home appears diffident and disjointed. Nation Management, Political leadership apathy and lack of accountability are all part of our evolution. Nevertheless the intrinsic strength of India resting with our seasoned office establishment has always ensured that we muddle through, without too much mud on our face. The international image of India is yet another positive paradigm. India is predictable, staid, stable, secular and restrained. Our protests are loud but our violence is subdued. Our elections are peaceful, with our laws mostly enforced. We have come off age without too much trauma of a colonial dominion. Our eclectic absorption, adaptability and the phenomenal success of Indians abroad are all noticed by others.

We are no more in a position of having to choose or measure our march. On the way we may falter at times but would not fall down. Let India continue with Iran and Israel triad and not consider this a triage. This would be our rightful and rational call.

Carry Forward The Legacy of Agni-5

Radhakrishna Rao
Research Fellow, VIF

The flawless, twenty minute long maiden flight of India’s most advanced and longest range Agni-V missile capable of hitting targets at a distance of 5,000-kms on April 19 has given a big boost to the nuclear deterrence and long range strategic strike capability of India. Going beyond the debate whether the three-stage Agni-V really deserves the tag of ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile) or not, India should carry forward the legacy of this most powerful three-stage, solid fuel driven missile to develop a range of missiles capable of hitting targets beyond 10,000 kms. For such a capability alone can help transform India into superpower besides providing parity with China to some extent in long-range missile strike capability. Indeed, in the aftermath of the Agni-V launch, an editorial in the pro-Beijing Global Times had observed, “India should stand no chance in an overall arms race with China.” Going further, it warned New Delhi against relying on its relationship with US and implied the possibility of India joining hands with the West to curb China’s growth. ” India should also not overstate the value of its Western allies and the profits it could gain from participating in a containment of China. If it equated long-range strategic missiles with deterrence of China, and step-up further hostilities, it could be sorely mistaken,” noted the Global Times editorial. There were also reports to suggest that China may pressurize countries to drop exporting critical components used in missile systems to India.

Not surprisingly, the total turnaround of US stance in so far as its muted reaction to Agni-V launch was concerned was on the expected lines. The cryptic response of US which had left no stone unturned to prevent India from testing the Agni-II missile in late 1990s was “all nuclear capable states should exercise restraint regarding nuclear capabilities.” Added to that, following India’s 1998 twin Pokhran nuclear blasts, Washington had blamed India for “proliferation” and brought India under the technology embargo. Obviously, USA which is hard selling its defence hardware to India, cannot afford to offend India at this critical juncture. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was right in his observation: “The successful Agni-V test launch represents another milestone in our quest to add to the credibility of our security and preparedness to continuously explore the frontiers of science.”

The new generation Agni-V missile with a formidable strike capability and state of the art technological elements marks a massive strategic leap for India as it becomes the sixth nation in the world to capable of delivering warhead across the continents. Clearly and apparently, Agni-V, which has helped India expand its missile foot print far beyond China and Pakistan, has altered the global geo-political scenario in all its manifestations. “Agni-V gives strategic deterrence parity as it provides the same range and clout as Chinese missiles have,” says Bharat Karnad, Professor at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.

Indeed, the decision to equip Agni-V with MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle) would help India strike multiple targets spread across a vast geographical swath at one go. “The versatile capability of this missile will enable India to leapfrog into the area of MIRV, anti-satellite weapons and the capability to launch satellites on demand. This will usher in a new era of missile development in India,” says Avinash Chander, Chief Controller (Research and Development) of missiles and strategic systems at DRDO. Indeed, DRDO would need to build its own launch capability to take care of the growing space defence needs of the country. For ISRO with its limited infrastructure, a single operational launch vehicle in the form of PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) and a solitary launch complex on India’s eastern coast is clearly not in a position to build and launch satellites – at short intervals and on a regular basis – required by the three wings of the Services. Indeed, it would be in the fitness of things for DRDO to modify the Agni range of ballistic missiles to hurl satellites into orbit at a short turnaround time. Moreover, DRDO can position Agni range of missiles as one of the key components of India’s space weaponization programme the need for which the country’s political leadership should recognize without any loss of time. For in the context of China’s highly motivated plans for perfecting the techniques space warfare, India cannot afford to remain a silent spectator.

As it is, the plan to equip Agni-V with MIRV capability has been hailed by strategic experts. “MIRV is the right way to go,” says Rajaram Nagappa, Professor of Strategic and Security Studies at National Institute of Advanced Studies(NIAS) in Bangalore. Nagappa who had earlier worked on solid fuel driven motor systems at the Thiruvananthapuram-based Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre(VSSC) of ISRO says “Reduction of structural mass and maximising of fuel efficiency was another important area which the defence scientists have solved.” According to DRDO sources, an MIRV payload would be significantly heavier since it would consist of several nuclear warheads, each of them weighing about 400-kg. “The primary modules of MIRV are in an advanced stage of development. Realization and integration of them into a weapon is just a question of threat perception and the need as it arises,” says Chander.

Incidentally, the MIRV capability of Agni-V has its parallel in the multiple launch of capability of the four-stage Indian space workhorse PSLV, which in April 2008, had created a sort of record by hoisting as many as ten satellites into space in one go. “The MIRV technology is similar to ISRO’s multiple satellite injection technology. The defence scientists have to miniaturize it and install better guidance systems to ensure that warheads hit the targets,” says Karnad. As pointed out by DRDO, the focus of the new generation Indian missiles is on weight reduction and improvement in velocities with high payload capability.

Agni-V featuring many advanced technology elements including state of the art guidance and navigation, stealth features, canister launch capability and carbon composite rocket motor casing, could very well serve as a platform for a robust Indian ICBM programme. According to Zhang Zhaozang, a Professor with PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) University in China, “the Agni-V range could be further enhanced to become an ICBM.” But then, as stated by Avinash Chander, “As of now, most of India’s perceived and potential strategic threats are localized within 5,500-km range. Agni-V will take care of this concern.”

For India the biggest advantage of Agni-V is that it can be launched from any location within the country, in any direction and at any time. DRDO has already hinted that the range of Agni-V can be enhanced through the use of improved materials and enhanced fuel loading capability. According to V. G. Shekaran, Director of the Hyderabad-based Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL) of DRDO which designed and developed Agni-V “A great advantage of the configuration of Agni-V is that we can further enhance and expand its range. We would upscale Agni-III with a range of 3,500 km to Agni-V in a short time. On similar lines, we can go beyond Agni-V. That is the beauty of Agni-V’s configuration. Its up-scaling and mobility is high.” Interestingly, among the new technologies used for Agni-V are ring laser gyro-based inertial navigation system, micro inertial navigation system, high speed on-board computer based on power PC design, light weight composite motors and 100% home-grown software. Research Centre Imarat (RCI), a DRDO laboratory based in Hyderabad, has made significant contribution to the development of advanced inertial navigation, guidance and control systems which went into Agni-V.

As envisaged now, Agni-V will help India boost its second strike capability in the context of India’s national policy of the no first use of nuclear capability. The short-range Agni-I equipped to strike a target at a distance of 700-kms and medium range Agni-II designed to hit a target at a distance of 2,500-kms have already been inducted into service. The programme for developing improved performance Agni range of missiles – Agni-III, Agni-IV and Agni-V—owes its origin to Agni-I and Agni-II missiles developed as part of the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) spearheaded under the guidance of the former Indian President Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam who as the head of DRDO had consistently striven to put the Indian missile development programme on a sound footing. Incidentally, during his stint with ISRO(Indian Space Research Organisation), Kalam had played a key role in the development of India’s first civilian launch vehicle SLV-3 which had its successful debut flight in 1980. Against this backdrop, US think tank have been alleging that the Agni range of missiles have benefited enormously from the solid fuel technology developed for the four stage, 17-tonne SLV-3.

Two more tests of Agni-V need to be carried out before its induction into services hopefully by the middle of this decade. DRDO has already revealed that the development of the naval variant of Agni-V which can be launched from under sea platforms is on hand. This nuclear capable, road mobile missile can reach out to almost entire Asia, East Europe upto the Russian coast in the north and close to the coastline of Australia and South Africa. The target range however, varies depending on the launch site. Agni range of missiles form the mainstay of India’s nuclear deterrence capability based on the no first use of nuclear weapon policy. With the Indo Russian supersonic cruise missile BrahMos already inducted into the army and the navy, the Akash surface-to-air area defence system in service with the IAF and the indigenous nuclear powered submarine Arihant boosting the K-15 underwater launched missile, DRDO claims that India has now a complete range of missiles to take care of multifarious threats emanating from a variety of directions.

By all means, the smooth debut flight of Agni-V exemplifies India’s growing technological self-reliance that stands out as a challenge to technology denial and trade sanction regime. As stated by DRDO chief, V. K. Saraswat “Agni-V is a game changer and India is a major missile power now.” Saraswat drives home the point that the biggest advantage of Agni-V is its short reaction time and high mobility. Agni-V can easily be stored in hermitically sealed canister and quickly transported atop launcher trucks by road to the required destination. This would give armed forces tremendous flexibility to pick and choose from where to launch the missile.

“Three major gains from Agni-V are the technology of MIRV, the capability to launch mini satellites and the capability to engage satellites in its orbit,” says Saraswat. According to Saraswat, Agni-V gave the ability to take a “kill vehicle” instead of a payload to high altitude of about 800-km. This kill vehicle can be used to smash a rogue satellite to ensure the safety of Indian space resources. ”Besides the kill vehicle, one should have some guidance to hit the satellite. We can put advance seekers that are built in the country itself. Satellite position will be given to the kill vehicle that will then inflict the desired change,” said Saraswat. Saraswat, who has all along been stressing on the need for the developing the building blocks of Indian space weaponization programme, views Agni-V as a key anti satellite device.

Incidentally, Prithvi, a tactical battlefield system, happens to be the first missiles developed under IGMDP which was initiated in 1983 by DRDO. Following the successful launch of Prithvi-1 liquid fuel driven missile in February1989, the US and other developing countries imposed technology embargo on India under MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) adversely affecting the availability of advanced electronic devices such as computer processor chips, radio frequency devices, electro hydraulic components, maraging steel and composite materials such as carbon fibre. But then unfazed by technology denial regime, DRDO chose to develop the critical components and hardware through consortium approach involving national laboratories, universities and private industries. Thanks to the vision of DRDO India became self sufficient in the development of components including phase shifters, magnesium alloys ,servo valves, resins and carbon fibres. Today around 80% of the components and hardware going into the Indian missile systems are produced within the country.

There is no denying the fact that the nuclear capable Agni range of missiles along with the supersonic cruise missile BrahMos developed by India in partnership with Russia makes for a win-win combination in taking care of the possible misadventure from across the Himalayan border. The plan to deploy both these missiles, which are formidable in their own way, in India’s north eastern sector, has the potential to give Indian defence forces a tremendous strategic advantage .Similarly, DRDO’s well conceived plan to put in place a two layered ballistic missile defence shield in place seeks to protect the Indian skies with two interceptor missiles—Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) missile for high altitude interception and the Advanced Air Dfence (AAD) missile for lower altitude interception—assumes significance. With a number of other home grown missile systems—Nirbhay intermediate range subsonic land attack missile now awaiting its debut flight, Prahar quick reaction battlefield missile currently being weaponised for use by the Indian army and Astra air to air beyond the visual range missile awaiting firing from Su-30 MKI combat aircraft--- Indian defence forces will have no reason to worry about defending the country against the evil design of the potential aggressors.

The unqualified success of Agni-V clearly demonstrates that DRDO means business and it can no longer be considered a laggard in so far as developing a range of advanced missiles of different class is concerned. Indeed, as stated by Saraswat, nowhere else in the world does a single agency has so many on-going programmes. DRDO which not long back was at the receiving end for its shortcomings , now stands transformed into a centre of excellence in state of the art missile technologies. And for the Indian Defence Minister A. K. Antony who has all along been urging DRDO to take a leaf out of the success story of ISRO, the Agni-V successful flight cannot but be the “happiest moment of his life”.