Showing posts with label Arab world. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arab world. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

“Soft Power” Counts for very Little”


Kanwal Sibal (Advisory Board, VIF)

Much is sometimes made of India’s “soft power” as a diplomatic force multiplier. This kind of power is defined as the ability to attract and co-opt rather than coerce, use force or give money as a mean of persuasion. Through this power a country can supposedly obtain the outcomes it wants because other countries admiring its values, emulating its example, aspiring to its levels of prosperity, openness and availability of individual opportunities, want to follow it. Those who believe in the reality of such “soft power” in international relations think that Bollywood, yoga, Indian music, dance and cuisine, our practice of democracy and pluralism amidst huge diversity give India added diplomatic weight internationally. Is this true?

US

The concept of soft power may have gained wide international currency in political and academic circles but that does not mean it is unquestionable. The concept is very American, developed from the perspective of the world’s dominant political, economic and military power. One can do the academic exercise of separating the various components of US power and establish a new category of “soft power” on the assumption that American democracy, culture, values, Hollywood et al exert draw the rest of the world voluntarily into the American orbit.

The US, supposedly, attracts others through this kind of soft power to follow its lead, without the need to use force. This is a debatable proposition. If the US lacked the overwhelming “hard power” it has, if global institutions were not dominated by it, if it did not actively propagate its political,economic and societal values world-wide, if it did not control significantly the flow of information across the globe, its “soft power” would be ineffectual. Switzerland has many of the elements of American “soft power”- a veritable grass root democracy, respect for citizen rights, individual opportunities, high levels of prosperity, quality production etc. Yet no one talks of neutral, non-military oriented Switzerland’s “soft power”.

Furthermore, have countries at large progressively embraced democracy because of the American example? On the contrary, one now talks of the attractiveness of the Chinese model of governance for developing countries. Russia resists US ideas of democracy and the methods used to promote it in Russia itself and in its neighbourhood. Despite decades of US global domination, consolidated by the demise of the Soviet Union, no democracy wave has engulfed the world, except in areas liberated from Soviet domination in eastern Europe. The Arab world is seeing political convulsions that have been inspired not by US democracy but by local anger against protracted dictatorships, with power transferred to muslim groups averse to western style democracy. Moreover, American democratic freedoms and cultural values have hardly wrought change in the Gulf monarchies despite their long asociation with the US. Its “soft power” hasn’t prevented the US from being deeply unpopular in the Islamic world at large.

The claim that US soft power draws strength from its commitment to human rights would need to be reconciled with American military intervention in Iraq that has exacted an enormous human toll. Regime changes of the kind enforced in Libya and being currently promoted in Syria, with Iran to perhaps follow later, are exceedingly costly in human terms as whole societies are destabilized. In Afghanistan, and even in Pakistan where the US has become deeply unpopular, radical forces like the Taliban are unimpressed by US soft power, even with regard to basic human values such as proper treatment of women and the right girls have to education etc.

India

It is important also not to confuse entertainment with power of any kind. There is no relationship between enjoyment of Hollywood movies and political support for US policies across the globe. Because of the highly unequal quality of these films, in some ways the picture they convey of US society can be actually unflattering.

In India’s case, its putative soft power as a democracy has failed to exert much co-opting influence even in its neighbourhood. Countries like Nepal have actually viewed Indian democracy in the past as a threat. Governance issues have tarnished the image of our democracy, with the spread of corruption in all walks of life eroding further its prestige. With China racing ahead in economic development and pulling millions out of poverty, India’s failure to eradicate abysmal levels of poverty still prevalent in the country, besides wide-spread malnutrition and poor sanitation and hygiene, corrodes the attractiveness of its model, which some have begun to see as increasingly dysfunctional. In some areas the human development indices in India are lower than in sub-saharan Africa. It is ironical that the democracy argument has to be offered by apologists to explain the shortfalls in India’s performance.

Culture

Bollywood, which is loved by the Pakistani public, hasn’t reduced Pakistan’s hostility towards India, just as the fondness of some here for Pakistani plays and affection for sufi music does not change negative thinking about Pakistan in India. Our secularism and pluralism is hardly viewed with admiration in the Islamic world, where the more conservative regimes actually see secularism as a form of heresy and minorities are denied equal status in law. Our other cultural attributes, however attractive, haven’t persuaded countries to be on India’s side against dictatorships and military regimes that inflict violence or make teritorial demands on us. Across the world people can love Indian food and enjoy Indian art forms, but that does not lessen political differences on key bilateral or international issues, just as the popularity of Chinese food in India does not alter our thinking about Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh or its strategic alliance with Pakistan.
So, let’s not be soft-headed about the politically seductive force of India’s “soft power”.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Delhi’s Craven Policy on Syria




Kanwal Sibal
Member Advisory Board, VIF

The position India is taking on the unfolding Syrian crisis does not do honour to our diplomacy. We supported last week the western resolution providing for sanctions on Syria under Chapter V11 of the UN Charter unless its government effectively ended its military operations against the insurgents who are backed by the West, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

UN

Russia and China vetoed this one-sided resolution which imposed specific and verifiable obligations on the government such as ceasing, within ten days, troop movements towards population centres and all use of heavy weapons there, a complete pullback of military concentrations in and around population centres and withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from these centres to their barracks etc. No obligation was imposed on the armed opposition groups, apart from a general exhortation to “all parties, including the opposition (to) cease all armed violence in all its forms”. The resolution took no cognizance of the role of the external backers of the armed groups and sought no end to outside interference.

In these circumstances, the provision to extend Kofi Annan’s UN mission to Syria for another 45 days- something that Russia and China(and India) favoured- became a casualty. The West has, in reality, little attachment to Annan’s mission as it serves to delay what they want- President Assad’s quick ouster- while Russia and China (and India) support it in the forlorn hope that some negotiated way out of the crisis can be found.

Kofi Annan’s mission has been subsequently salvaged, with the Security Council unanimously approving( July 20) a compromise western resolution extending the mandate of the UN Supervision Mission in Syria for 30 days, with the possibility of extension should there be a cessation of the use of heavy weapons and a reduction of violence by all parties in Syria. The “all parties” referred to will not abjure violence as religious ideology and larger geopolitical objectives are involved. The regime will combat the armed opposition groups to protect itself and the country’s multi-ethnic secular foundations. The latest resolution is therefore an exercise in cynicism by those who remain bent on regime change and those who are willing to clutch at such diplomatic straws to uphold their position that the Syrians themselves and not external powers should decide on political change in Damascus.

If India’s conduct in the UN Security Council is questionable, it is because India is buffeted by contradictory considerations of principle and pragmatism in adopting a position. Conscious of its transformed relationship with the US, India is reluctant to oppose the latter on issues like Syria in the UNSC where its conduct is under scrutiny in the context of its permanent membership aspirations. India is exhorted by the West to assume its “international responsibilities” as a would-be global power on humanitarian and democracy-related issues, which means endorsing the policy of imposing sanctions on delinquent states as identified by them. India’s foreign investment and growth needs dispose its policy makers to bridge political gaps with the US as much as possible. India’s vast energy, trade, manpower and remittance linkages with the Gulf countries contrast with limited economic ties with Syria, placing a premium on pragmatism in defining our position.

Pragmatism

On the other hand, strategic autonomy means taking positions in conformity with our fundamental thinking about the conduct of international relations, even if our western partners find them disagreeable. The abhorrence for externally enforced regime change seems to have got dissipated in our political thinking. Syria may be different from Iraq and Libya in method but not in objective. Western leaders are insisting on Assad’s departure and warning that his days are numbered. They are supporting the armed opposition groups; their media has launched an information war against Syria; for ostensible humanitarian reasons they are creating conditions for a large scale human disaster there. Why should we implicitly support regime change in Syria?

In our longer term interest we should not be complicit in the destruction of secular authoritarian regimes in the Arab world and their replacement by authoritarian Islamist ones. The veneer of democracy being given to these developments is false. The US, which has managed fundamentalism in the Gulf for decades and even promoted it in our region till recently for geopolitical ends, may believe it retains enough levers to manage the developing Islamist trends in the Arab world in which allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are playing a catalysing role. But India is getting exposed to a longer term threat by the lurch of the Islamic world towards Salafism.

Principle

India’s explanation India for voting for the western resolution on Syria is disingenuous, as it refers only to India’s desire to preserve Kofi Annan’s mission and ignores completely the sanctions provision that Russia and China were objecting to. Not taking into consideration Russia’s cogent arguments against the western resolution reflects a departure from our oft-stated positions, along with Russia, on respect for sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs of countries, opposition to regime change and support for multilateralism and multi-polarity.

Our compliant attitude at New York contrasts with the position taken by South Africa which abstained and criticized the western resolution as one-sided. Pakistan too abstained, and opened up space for itself, unlike us, to jointly work with Russia to draft a joint resolution on extending the Kofi Annan mission as an alternative to the UK draft. This reflects poorly on our diplomcy with Russia on Syria.

A compromise between principle and pragmatism dictated abstention by India on the vote on Syria. If we should not oppose the West when they are right because of old prejudices, we should not support them when they are wrong out of new fears.