Monish Gulati
Introduction
Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali
Zardari were in London on 03 February 2013 for a trilateral summit
meeting with the British Prime Minister David Cameron. The current talks
in London were the third in the series with the first two having been
held in 2012. The inaugural meeting was in Kabul in July, which was then
followed by a meeting at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in
September. In the London talks, the Pakistani and Afghan army and
intelligence chiefs took part for the first time. It was reported that
the Afghan and Pakistani military and intelligence officials also met
informally on 03 February ahead of the summit.1
The Afghan peace process, primed by the release of Taliban detainees
by Pakistan, had not been progressing as hoped by all stakeholders. On
the other hand, Pakistan in return for the Taliban detainees it had
released, expected further cooperation from Afghanistan including a role
in training of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Some analyst
also felt UK was best placed to resolve the issue of the Durand Line
which has never been officially recognized by Kabul, and has been a
major cause of tension between the two countries. 2
Issues
Leading up to the London trilateral, there were two events of
significance after the Paris peace talks in December 2012. First was the
visit by Karzai to Washington where he and President Obama announced on
11January that a negotiating office for the Taliban would be opened in
Qatar. However Karzai, on return to Kabul, said there will be no deal
until Qatar meets his earlier stated conditions in writing. Second was
the core group meeting in Dubai where the Pakistan‘s foreign secretary
had said that Pakistan plans to release all Afghan Taliban prisoners
still in its custody.
The Afghan President in his imitable manner set the tone for the
trilateral meet with an interview to the Guardian and ITV released late
on 03 February. He suggested that Pakistan was preventing the Taliban
from entering into peace talks with his government. Karzai also said
that the biggest threat to peace in Afghanistan was not the Taliban, but
meddling from foreign powers. He took a swipe at the British when he
remarked that Helmand situation and security was better before British
troops were deployed there in 2006.Hinting at the Taliban safe havens in
Pakistan he added that the drawdown of Western troops appeared to have
been because they had realised that “they were fighting in the wrong
place.”
Taliban for Talks
The US has tried to accelerate the peace process by working with Britain, Norway and Germany to reach out to the Taliban. 3
All these efforts were to work around the Taliban demands for changing
the Afghan constitution, withdrawal of all foreign troops from
Afghanistan and the most uncomfortable of their entire refusal to
recognize the Afghan government while being more amenable to negotiating
directly with US.
Taliban Office
The heart of the disagreement regarding opening of Taliban office in
Doha is Karzai's demand that Qatar produce a written memorandum of
understanding agreeing to his preconditions. These demands include
assurances that the office would not be used for any “political purpose”
other than direct negotiations with Afghanistan, that it have a fixed
time frame and be closed if talks do not take place, and that all
Taliban negotiators provide “documentation” proving they are legitimate
representatives.4 Qatar has not agreed on the demands of
Karzai Administration that the office should be closed down within six
months if Taliban do not start direct talks with HPC.
Release of Detainees
Pakistan’s lack of monitoring the whereabouts and activities of
Taliban prisoners it released in recent months as frustrated
Afghanistan. Pakistan says doesn't have the resources to keep track of
the freed detainees. The HPC had handed Pakistan the list of prisoners,
including Turabi, that it wanted freed. They have also asked for the
release of the Taliban’s former second in command, Mullah Abdul Ghani
Baradar, but Washington has urged Pakistan not to release him.5 There are indications that at least more than half might have rejoined the ranks of the insurgency.6
In some cases, the released Taliban resorted to suicide attacks.
Further Pakistan had released more detainees than Afghanistan had asked
for. There has been at least one report of tension between Taliban
leadership as a released Taliban leader asked to be reinstated to his
former post. The US Embassy in Kabul has called for “responsible
release” of Taliban prisoners and that it was up to Afghanistan and
Pakistan to reach to a solution.7
US Interests
Top on the US agenda is jump-starting the peace and reconciliation
process which is not in-step with its drawdown plans and its exit
strategy. Without a meaningful outcome of the political planned in
Afghanistan, the US fears will again be accused of abandoning the
region, just as it was at the end of the Soviet Union's Afghan
occupation in the early 1990s. Worse, if a civil war breaks out, it may
do an ‘Iraq’ in South Asia. In addition, U.S. hopes of positioning a
post-withdrawal counterterrorism force in Afghanistan while in the near
term negotiations are critical to secure the release of Sgt. Bowe
Bergdahl, the only U.S. service member known to be a Taliban captive.
Pakistani Demands
Pakistanis want a secure Afghan border, an end to the Balochistan
insurgency, coordinated action against anti-Pakistan guerrillas in both
countries and reduction of Indian role in Afghanistan. According BBC
News, Pakistan does not want a repeat of the 1989 pullout by Soviet
forces, which left Kabul in the hands of what it regarded as
"unfriendly" forces. It fears this may extend Indian influence to its
western border.
Trilateral Summit
Following talks the joint statement issued from Downing Street said,
"All sides agreed on the urgency of this work and committed themselves
to take all necessary measures to achieve the goal of a peace settlement
over the next six months." They urged the Taliban to join the
reconciliation process in Afghanistan. Cameron said both Karzai and
Zardari had agreed at the summit to initiate 'an unprecedented level of
co-operation' between their nations and they hoped to sign an agreement
strengthening ties on economic and security issues, including trade and
border management, later in the year. He added that discussions at the
summit had focused on ways of advancing the Afghan-led peace process as
well as strengthening relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.8
Outcome
All sides affirmed support for the opening of a Taliban office in
Doha for the purpose of negotiations with the HPC. They called on the
Taliban to take steps necessary to open an office and to enter into
dialogue. However there were reports that Pakistan viewed the Afghan
conditions as detrimental to further progress on the peace talks.9
Another significant commitment was to “strengthen co-ordination of
Taliban detainee releases from Pakistani custody.” In future Islamabad
will send the list of the Taliban inmates to the HPC that would be
released from Pakistani prisons. It had been speculated that the Afghan
Government will indirectly recognize the Durand Line in a pact “titled
Border Management and Strategic Agreement”, and in turn Pakistan shall
push the Taliban for peace. As per Afghan media when the US pressurized
Pakistan for supporting insurgents, General Kayani justified Pakistani
action in a 100-page report claiming that NATO, India and Afghanistan
wanted to divide Pakistan.10 The Afghan presidential
spokesman, on 10 Feb clarified that the issue of the Durand Line had not
been discussed at the trilateral.11
Transitional Government
It has also been reported that the Pakistan’s delegation during the
London talks demanded that negotiations be carried out between Afghan
political groups and Taliban to establish a new legitimate
administration in Kabul. It is said that Pakistani delegation had told
President Karzai that they were not able to get the Taliban to accept
the Afghan Constitution and the Afghan Government, therefore, there is a
need to establish a ‘new political system’.12 According to
sources, Pakistan held a meeting between warlords, Hezb-e-Islami and the
Taliban commanders in the Shamshatoo Refugee Camp in Pakistan where the
establishment of a transitional Government in Afghanistan was
discussed.13
An Afghan Taliban spokesman on Wednesday dismissed the outcome of a
conference in London and said that the conference and other “horse
trading” were “the real obstacles of effective and fruitful negotiations
between the factual sides”.14 The US on its part said that
it supports the Pak-Afghan deadline for finalising a peace deal with the
Taliban and urges insurgents to open a reconciliation post in Qatar.
Such a process was “the surest way to end the violence and ensure
lasting stability in Afghanistan and in the region”. “Our goal here has
been to support the creation of a process to make it possible … for
willing Taliban participants to talk directly to the Afghan High Peace
Council”.15
The trilateral was followed by two visits. First was a two-day visit
by the British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond to southern Afghanistan
to visit U.K. troops on 05 Feb 13. He also met with new Afghan Defense
Minister Bismillah Mohammadi in Kabul. 16 The second visit
was by Pakistani Prime Minister Ashraf to meet David Cameron on February
12, 2013. During the meeting, the two leaders discussed matters of
bilateral interest including the aftermath in Afghanistan following the
withdrawal of NATO troops. Prime Minister Ashraf also put in a bid for
military hardware for Pakistan. The meeting also covered Indo-Pakistan
relations apart from discussions on matters of bilateral and
international importance. Cameron, hailing the recently concluded
trilateral meeting, said that Pakistan’s role was constructive and he
would be visiting Pakistan this summer to carry the process forward.17
Assessment
The trilateral summit meets are organised taking in consideration
certain ground realities. For one it is not possible to discuss
Afghanistan with India and Pakistan in the same forum. Therefore, US
conducts a trilateral involving India while the UK manages one with
Pakistan. Second, UK has been more active in dealing with the Taliban
representatives and involving them in the power sharing mechanism in
Kabul( since the Saudi organised peace talks in 2009) and the same time
it mitigates the turbulent relationship Pakistan shares with US
particularly for the political constituency in Pakistan. The present
meet involved the military and intelligence chiefs giving due
recognition to the various power centres in Pakistan, and possibly
signaling a more direct and on the table approach to speed up the
process.
Although the Taliban appear more ready to talk than ever before,
peace talks remain tenuous on account of a rising number of
interlocutors on either side — all trying to get some kind of
negotiations started with various combinations of stakeholders.
Reportedly, members of the Taliban are in contact with representatives
from 30 to 40 different countries. Recent informal talks in Doha had
the intervention of a Pakistani politician Mullah Fazlur Rahman and
Yusuf al-Qaradawi who has contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
The timeline of six months set by the trilateral summit, deemed overly
optimistic by most experts, is most probably derived from the imperative
to get the Taliban to participate in the upcoming provincial and
Presidential elections in Afghanistan and the filing of nominations for
the same. There is also this need to settle the border issue and
Pakistani requirements at the earliest to get on with the peace process
in right earnest.
Second, the idea of the transitional government being introduced into
the peace process aims at finding a way around the Taliban’s refusal to
deal directly with the Karzai government. The idea of transitional
government also puts pressure on the Afghan government to dilute its
demands concerning the Taliban office in Qatar.
Another issue of note is the Pakistani demand of weapons from UK. The
armaments in question would most likely be those being moved out of
Afghanistan by the British troops as a part of their drawdown. Pakistan
has made a similar demand to the US coinciding with the move of the
first lot of containers from Afghanistan through Pakistan. Third is the
Pakistani desperation to get the SPA through comes from the fact that
NATO/ISAF countries are basing their training mission in Afghanistan
post- 2014 on their respective SPAs signed with Afghanistan. India,
unlike Pakistan, having signed an SPA with Afghanistan is better placed
to ramp up its training role post- 2014. India has viewed with unease
the British efforts to push through the SPA between Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
It is widely believed that British interlocutors had a leading role
in the drafting of the five-point peace process roadmap for Afghanistan
which mainly addresses Pakistan and Taliban interests in the region.
There is a sense that the elements of the erstwhile Northern Alliance,
more favourable aligned to India, are being sidelined in the peace
process. India is also uncomfortable with the distinction US has made
between Al-Qaeda and other militant groups operating in the region for
pushing through the peace process. Taliban, TTP, IMU etc may not pose
any threat to the US but they definitely have security implications for
India.
Indian apprehensions also stem from the fact that it believes the
entire peace process is Pakistan-centric and does not address the
regional concerns. To that end India is contemplating talks with Russia
and China to give the peace process a more regional outlook. India is
also of the opinion that due consideration must be given to the
interests of countries which are investing, particularly in the
infrastructure sector, in Afghanistan. India feels that British
intervention through a hastily-cobbled deal between Afghanistan and
Pakistan including bringing the Taliban into the power structure in
Kabul, aims to give the NATO and the US an honourable exit from
Afghanistan.
Conclusion
When viewed favourably it can be said that the London trilateral
represented a convergence of three of the most important players in
Afghanistan on the urgency of resolving issues and making efforts
towards peace through a political settlement. The big question however
remains whether Karzai has accepted the need to have a Taliban office in
Doha sans conditions and in turn his demand to be the sole Afghan
interlocutor with the Taliban has been accepted by the other concerned
parties.
Endnotes
- Michael Lipin. ‘Britain's Cameron Hosts 3rd Summit With Afghan, Pakistani Leaders’, February03, 2013. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2013/02/mil-130203-v...
- Trilateral Summit in London, Outlook Afghanistan, February 03, 2013. http://outlookafghanistan.net/editorialdetail.php?post_id=6545
- Taliban hint at sharing power, yet Afghan peace effort fraught with mistrust, confusion, Washington Post, February 04, 2013. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taliban-hint-at-sharing...
- Mariya Karimjee. ‘UK PM Cameron to host peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan‘,Globalpost, February 03, 2013
- Taliban hint at sharing power, yet Afghan peace effort fraught with mistrust, confusion, February 4 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taliban-hint-at-sharing...
- ‘Freed Taliban fighters return to insurgency, frustrating peace efforts in Afghanistan,, Fox News, February 21, 2013. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/02/21/freed-taliban-fighters-return-to...
- Tolo TV Headlines, February 10, 2013.
- Pak, Afghan Leaders To Seek Peace Settlement Within Six Months, February 05,2013. http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2013-02/25886260-pak-afghan-...
- Kamran Yousaf, ‘The Qatar initiative: JUI-F chief features in Doha talks’, The Express Tribune, February 11, 2013. http://tribune.com.pk/story/505597/the-qatar-initiative-jui-f-chief-feat...
- Cheragh Daily, February 11, 2013.
- Pajhwok Afghan News, February 11, 2013.
- Hasht-e-Subh Daily, February 10, 13
- Sarnavesht Daily, February 10, 2013.
- Taliban dismiss outcome of Pak-Afghan-UK conference, Dawn, February 06,2013.
- US supports Pak-Afghan deadline for Taliban deal, Dawn, February 06, 2013
- UK Defense Secretary Visits Afghanistan, ABC News, February 7, 2013.
- Pakistan seeks military hardware from Britain, The Nation, February 13, 2013 http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/na...
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