रावलपिंडी का रणनीतिक गणित और पाकिस्तानी चुनावी राजनीति में आतंकी पार्टियों का उदय

Varun Nambiar, Research Intern, VIF

अगस्त में जब पाकिस्तान के सर्वोच्च न्यायालय ने पूर्ववर्ती प्रधानमंत्री नवाज शरीफ को भ्रष्टाचार के आरोप के कारण पद पर रहने के अयोग्य करार दिया¹ तो आतंकी संगठन लश्कर-ए-तैयवा की जनोपकारी शाखा जमात-उद-दावा (जेयूडी) ने ऐलान कर दिया कि वह राजनीति में प्रवेश करेगी और नवाज शरीफ की खाली हुई सीट – लाहौर में एनए-120 पर चुनाव लड़ने के लिए अपना प्रत्याशी उतारेगी।² खुद को मिल्ली मुस्लिम लीग (एमएमएल) कहने वाली यह नई राजनीतिक पार्टी चुनावी राजनीति में लश्कर का पहला कदम है।
लश्कर-ए-तैयबा
लश्कर ऐसा आतंकी संगठन है, जिस पर दुनिया भर में रोक लगी है। लश्कर का सहयोगी संगठन होने के कारण जमात-उद-दावा पर भी अमेरिका, भारत और यूरोपीय संघ समेत कई देशों और अंतरराष्ट्रीय समूहों ने प्रतिबंध लगा रखा है। जेयूडी और लश्कर के दो संस्थापकों हाफिज मुहम्मद सईद और जकी-उर्रहमान समेत उसके कई नेताओं को आतंकवादी घोषित कर दिया गया है। उन दोनों को दिसंबर, 2008 की सूची में डाला गया था।³
2014 में अमेरिकी वित्त विभाग ने लश्कर के नजीर अहमद चौधरी और मुहम्मद हुसैन गिल को विशेष रूप से घोषित वैश्विक आतंकवादी करार दिया। इसके साथ ही लश्कर और जमात-उद-दावा के साथ जुड़े घोषित आतंकवादियों की संख्या 20 से अधिक हो गई।⁴ अमेरिका की सरकार ने छह समूहों के नाम भी सूची में डाले, जो देखने में तो अलग हैं, लेकिन वास्तव में लश्कर के ही अंग हैं या उससे करीब से जुड़े हैं। ये नाम हैं जमात-उद-दावा, अल-अनफल ट्रस्ट, तहरीक-ए-हुरमत-ए-रसूल, तहरीक-ए-तहाफुज किब्ला अव्वल, फलह-इ इंसानियत फाउंडेशन (एफआईएफ) और इदरा खिदमत-ए-खलाक (आईकेके)।⁵ अमेरिका ने लश्कर और जमात-उद-दावा के एक और प्रमुख सदस्य हाफिज अब्दुल रहमान मक्की को पकड़वाने के लिए सूचना वाले व्यक्ति को 20 लाख डॉलर का इनाम देने की घोषणा भी की है।⁶ पाकिस्तान पर नजर रखने वाले विश्लेषक मक्की पर इनाम की घोषणा सुनकर हैरत में पड़ गए क्योंकि वह नई-नवेली पार्टी एमएमएल के लिए समर्थन जुटाने को पाकिस्तान के विभिन्न हिस्सों में खुलेआम प्रचार करता रहता है और जनसभाओं को संबोधित करता रहता है।⁷
चुनावी राजनीति में आने से काफी पहले कई वर्षों तक लश्कर परोपकार के कामों के जरिये अपनी नरम छवि पेश करने की कोशिश करता रहा था ताकि लोगों में उसकी लोकप्रियता और स्वीकार्यता बढ़ सके। परोपकारी संगठन कहलाने वाले एफआईएफ की स्थापना भी इसीलिए की गई थी।⁸ लोगों से संपर्क का समूह का कार्यक्रम निस्संदेह मजबूत रहा है क्योंकि पाकिस्तान के भीतर तो उसने कुछ सहानुभूति जुटा ही ली है। भूकंप⁹ और बाढ़¹⁰ के बाद उसके सहायता कार्य ने समाज के भीतर उसके प्रति काफी सद्भावना जुटा दी और कई लोग इस संगठन को वैसी सेवाएं देने में सक्षम मानने लगे, जो सेवाएं पाकिस्तान सरकार नहीं दे पा रही है। लश्कर ने अपनी सभाओं में इक्का-दुक्का सिख वक्ताओं¹¹ को बोलने की अनुमति देकर और सिंध में गरीब हिंदू परिवारों को दान देकर ‘अल्पसंख्यक हितैषी’ छवि बनाने का भी प्रयास किया है। ध्यान देने वाली बात है कि कि कुछ थारपारकर हिंदुओं ने फरवरी, 2017 में हाफिज की नजरबंदी के खिलाफ विरोध किया था।¹² हालांकि इस बात की पुष्टि नहीं की जा सकती कि ये विरोध प्रदर्शन स्वतःस्फूर्त थे या नहीं - हो सकता है कि बलपूर्वक प्रदर्शन कराए गए हों - लेकिन उनसे पता चलता है कि लश्कर/जमात-उद-दावा हिंसक और अंतरराष्ट्रीय स्तर पर प्रतिबंधित आतंकी समूह की अपनी छवि पर ‘लीपापोती’ करने के लिए किस हद तक जा सकते हैं।
तहरीक-ए लबाइक या रसूल अल्लाह
अहल-ए-हदीस आंदोलन की शिक्षाओं की हिंसक व्याख्या करने वाला लश्कर ही पाकिस्तान की वर्तमान राजनीति में सक्रिय इकलौता हिंसक चरमपंथी समूह नहीं है। नवाज शरीफ की खाली सीट पर चुनाव लड़ने का फैसला करने वाली एक और पार्टी तहरीक-ए लबाइक पाकिस्तान (टीएलपी) लश्कर है, जो पंजाब के गवर्नर सलमान तासीर की हत्या करने वाले बरेलवी चरमपंथी मुमताज कादरी का खुलेआम समर्थन करने वाले बरेलवी चरमपंथी संगठन तहरीक-ए लबाइक या रसूल अल्लाह (टीएलवाई) की राजनीतिक अवतार है। टीएलवाई की शुरुआत उसे जेल से रिहा कराने के लिए आंदोलन के तौर पर हुई थी।¹³
टीएलवाई के प्रमुख नेताओं में सभी तेजतर्रार बरेलवी धार्मिक नेता हैं। उसके केंद्रीय नेतृत्व में पीर अफजल कादरी, खादिम हुसैन रिजवी और डॉ. अशरफ जलाली जैसे नाम हैं।¹⁴ एमएमल-लश्कर/जमात-उद-दावा से उलट टीएलपी और उसके मूल संगठन टीएलवाई की परोपकार या सामुदायिक सेवाओं की कोई पृष्ठभूमि नहीं है। उनकी लोकप्रियता और आकर्षण का आधार विशुद्ध रूप से धार्मिक और वैचारिक है। टीएलवाई और उसकी राजनीतिक शाखा टीएलपी खुद को इस्लाम के सम्मान की रक्षक और पाकिस्तान के ईशनिंदा कानूनों की संरक्षक के रूप में दिखाती हैं। वे कानून जबरन थोपे जाने का खुलेआम समर्थन करती हैं। धर्म अथवा पैगंबर की निंदा करने का आरोप जिस पर भी हो, उसे भीड़ द्वारा स्वयं सजा दिए जाने की पैरवी टीएलवाई करता है और जनता के बीच इस तरह के इंसाफ की लोकप्रियता ही उस समूह के उदय और लोकप्रियता का कारण है। आंदोलन के प्रतीक वे लोग हैं, जिन्होंने धर्म के नाम पर कानून अपने हाथ में लिया है, जैसे मुमताज कादरी, तनवीर अहमद¹⁵ - जिसने ग्लासगो में एक अहमदी व्यक्ति को मारा था¹⁶ - और मशाल खान के हत्यारे।¹⁷
टीएलवाई आंदोलन को कई प्रभावशाली व्यक्तियों का समर्थन मिला है। रावलपिंडी से राष्ट्रीय असेंबली में विपक्ष के सदस्य शेख रशीद अहमद, जो पाकिस्तानी सेना के करीब माने जानते हैं और जनरल मुशर्रफ की सैन्य सरकार के सदस्य होने के साथ ही छह बार केंद्रीय मंत्री भी रह चुके हैं, ने टीएलवाई और मुमताज कादरी को खुला समर्थन दिया है।¹⁸ पाकिस्तान में मौजूदा केंद्र सरकार के कुछ वर्ग भी टीएलवाई आंदोलन के समर्थक हैं। धार्मिक मामलों एवं धर्मों के बीच सौहार्द के राज्य मंत्री पीर हसनत शाह ने भी टीएलवाई और उसकी विचारधारा का समर्थन किया है।¹⁹ उन्होंने मुमताज कादरी के प्रति भी सहानुभूति जताई है।²⁰ कई छोटे बरेलवी चरमपंथी समूहों का टीएलवाई और टीएलपी में विलय भी आरंभ हो गया है। तहरीक सिरक ए मुस्तकीम और तहरीक ए तहफूज ए इस्लाम जैसे समूहों ने टीएलवाई को समर्थन दे दिया है और इस तरह समूह की लोकप्रियता तथा वित्तीय ताकत बढ़ने लगी है।
परिणाम
राष्ट्रीय असेंबली - 120 के परिणाम का चुनाव की दृष्टि से महत्वपूर्ण हिस्सा अपेक्षा के अनुरूप ही रहा। इस चुनाव क्षेत्र में पाकिस्तान मुस्लिम लीग-नवाज (पीएमएल-एन) का दबदबा है और सत्ता से बेदखल किए गए पा्रधानमंत्री नवाज शरीफ की बीमार पत्नी कुलसूम नवाज ने बड़े अंतर से जीत दर्ज की। लेकिन पार्टी के पक्ष में पहले से कम वोट पड़े।
कई लोगों को (पाकिस्तान पर करीब से नजर रखने वलों को नहीं) इस बात से हैरत हुई कि पहली बार चुनाव लड़ने वाली दो आतंकी पार्टियों एमएमल और टीएलपी ने पीएमएल-एन और इमरान खान की पाकिस्तान तहरीक-ए-इंसाफ (पीटीआई) के बाद क्रमशः चौथा और तीसरा स्थान हासिल कर लिया। लेकिन इस बात से ज्यादा हैरत नहीं हुई कि दोनों आतंकी पार्टियों ने अपने दम पर ही पाकिस्तान पीपुल्स पार्टी (पीपीपी) से अधिक वोट हासिल कर लिए, जो उदार वाम झुकाव वाली पार्टी है और एक समय जिसे पूरे पाकिस्तान में समर्थन हासिल था। 1970 के चुनावों में इस क्षेत्र से पीपीपी के अध्यक्ष जुल्फिकार भुट्टो ने जीत हासिल की थी, जिन्होंने अपने निकटतम प्रतिद्वंद्वी और शायर तथा दार्शनिक मुहम्मद इकबाल के पुत्र जावेद इकबाल को 45211 वोटों से हराया था।²¹ पाकिस्तान की चुनावी राजनीति में पीपीपी के पतन के साथ आतंकी पार्टियों का उदय इस बात का स्पष्ट संकेत है कि देश में उदार वामपंथी तथा उदारवादी राजनीति खत्म हो रही है।
आतंकी पार्टियों का यह प्रदर्शन एकाएक नहीं हो गया था। प्रतिबंधित सिपह-ए-सहाबा से ताल्लुक रखने वाले संदिग्ध आतंकियों की सूची में शुमार मसरूर झांगवी ने पिछले वर्ष पंजाब प्रांतीय असेंबली की सीट (पीपी-178) का उपचुनाव जीता था।²² बाद में वह मौलाना फजलुर्रहमान की पार्टी जेयूआई-एफ में शामिल हो गए। फजलुर्ररहमान और उनकी पार्टी पीएमएल-एन की सहयोगी हैं। पाकिस्तानी चुनावी राजनीति में आतंकियों की बड़ी उपस्थिति के संकेत तभी मिल गए थे।
रावलपिंडी की शह पर काम करने वाले मुख्यधारा में
इस बात में तनिक भी संदेह नहीं है कि आतंकी समूहों को चुनावी राजनीति में लाने का यह प्रयास रावलपिंडी में मुख्यालय वाली पाकिस्तानी सेना के इशारे पर किया जा रहा है। पाकिस्तानी सैन्य प्रतिष्ठान के सेवानिवृत्त सदस्य और राष्ट्रीय टेलीविजन पर प्रतिष्ठान के सक्रिय अनाधिकारिक प्रवक्ता ले. जन. अमजद शुएब ने रॉयटर्स के सामने स्वीकार किया था कि इन आतंकी समूहों के चुनावी राजनीति में प्रवेश के पीछे सेना का हाथ है²³, जो उन्हें राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया की मुख्यधारा में लाना चाहती है ताकि उनकी ‘आक्रामकता खत्म’ की जा सके।
लश्कर नेतृत्व पर अंतरराष्ट्रीय प्रतिबंधों ने 2000 के दशक के आरंभ में सेना को समूह की ‘नरम छवि’ गढ़ने के लिए मजबूर कर दिया था। जमात-उद-दावा-एफआईएफ का गठन तथा समूह की परोपकारी गतिविधियां रावलपिंडी की सरपरस्ती में ही हुई थीं। समूह को चुनावी राजनीति के जरिये मुख्यधारा में लाने का हालिया प्रयास भी उसी नीति के तहत एक और प्रयास माना जा सकता है।
निष्कर्ष
देश के राजनीतिक परिदृश्य में धार्मिक चरमपंथियों के प्रवेश में मदद करना पाकिस्तानी सेना के लिए नया नहीं है। चरमांथियों के प्रभाव वाले आंदोलनों जैसे पाकिस्तान नेशनल अलायंस²⁴, इस्लामी जम्हूरी इत्तहाद²⁵ और दिफा-ए पाकिस्तान काउंसिल²⁶ को बढ़ावा देने में उसकी पुरानी भूमिका रही है। इतिहास उस मौत, विनाश और अराजकता का भी गवाह रहा है, जिसका कारण पाकिस्तान में आतंकी समूहों को पाकिस्तानी सेना द्वारा मिल रहा समर्थन है। ‘अच्छे’ आतंकी समूह की मुहर वाले संगठन को ‘बुरे’ आतंकी समूह में बदलने में वक्त नहीं लगता क्योंकि टूटे हुए छिटपुट तत्व कभी भी बदमाशी पर उतर सकते हैं। जैश-ए-मुहम्मद इसका प्रमाण है, जिसने जनरल मुशर्रफ की हत्या का प्रयास किया।²⁷
अपनी जमीन से काम कर रहे आतंकी समूहों के प्रति अपनी नीति बदलना ही पाकिस्तान के लिए अच्छा होगा। ‘मुख्यधारा में लाने’ की दलील में बहुत दम नहीं है क्योंकि ये आतंकी पार्टियां अपनी विचारधाराएं छोड़कर मुख्यधारा की विचारधाराएं नहीं अपना रही हैं बल्कि वे मुख्यधारा के राजनीतिक पटल पर अपनी आतंकी विचारधाराओं को थोपने की कोशिश कर रही हैं। बताने की जरूरत नहीं है कि यह बहुत जोखिम भरा कदम है, जो भविष्य में अनर्थ कर सकता है। पाकिस्तान के सर्वोच्च न्यायालय ने 2011 में कहा था कि वहां राजनीतिक पार्टियों के पास अपनी आतंकी शाखाएं हैं।¹⁸ दुर्भाग्य से पाकिस्तानी सैन्य प्रतिष्ठान की अपनी ही नीतियों के कारण आज स्थिति इतनी खतरनाक हो गई है कि पाकिस्तान के आतंकी समूहों की अपनी राजनीतिक शाखाएं हो गई हैं।
संदर्भ
1. ‘पाकिस्तान पीएम नवाज शरीफ रिजाइन्स आफ्टर पनामा पेपर्स वर्डिक्ट’, बीबीसी, 28 जुलाई 2017, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40750671
2. शफकत अली, ‘हाफिज सईद्स पार्टी फील्ड्स कैंडिडेट फ्रॉम शरीफ सीट’, 14 अगस्त 2017, द एशियन एज, www.asianage.com/world/asia/140817/hafiz-saeeds-party-fields-candidate-f...
3. 1267 समिति की सूची में लश्कर और जमात-उद-दावा को शामिल किए जाने के संबंध में: http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1267/pdf/AQList.pdf
4. अमेरिकी वित्त मंत्रालय, “ट्रेजरी सैंक्शन्स टू सीनियर लश्कर-ए-तैयबा नेटवर्क लीडर्स”, 25 जून, 2014: https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2440.aspx
5. अमेरिकी विदेश विभाग, “एडिशन ऑफ एलियसेस जमात-उद-दावा एंड इदारा खिदमत-ए-खल्क टु द स्पेशली डेजिग्नेटेड ग्लोबल टेररिस्ट डेजिग्नेशन ऑफ लश्कर-ए-तैयबा”, 28 अप्रैल, 2006: https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2006/65401.htm
6. अमेरिकी विदेश मंत्रालय , ‘रिवार्ड्स फॉर जस्टिस’, “इन्फॉर्मेशनद दैट ब्रिंग्स टु जस्टिस... हाफिज अब्दुल रहमान मक्की”: https://rewardsforjustice.net/english/hafiz_makki.html
7. अब्दुल रहमान मक्की का फैसलाबाद में 14 अगस्त, 2017 को दिया भाषण देखें: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6h3DnPU-Bw
8. मोहम्मद जिब्रान निसार, “पॉपुलराइजिंग टेररिस्ट्सः हाउ मिलिटेंट्स हैव बिकम अ पॉलिटिकल फोर्स इन पाकिस्तान”, द नेशन, 18 सितंबर, 2017: nation.com.pk/blogs/18-Sep-2017/na-120-the-by-election-belonged-to-hafiz-saeed
9. असद हाशिम, “मिलिटेंट-लिंक्ड चैरिटी ऑन फ्रंट लाइन ऑफ पाकिस्तान क्वेक एड”, रॉयटर्स, 30 अक्टूबर, 2015: www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-quake-militants/militant-linked-char....
10. उमर फारूक खानी, “जेयूडी की प्लेयर इन फ्लड ऑप्स इन पाक”, द टाइम्स ऑफ इंडिया, 4 अगस्तर, 2010: timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/JuD-key-player-in-flood-ops-in-Pak/articleshow/6257979.cms
11. सितंबर, 2017 में गोपाल सिंह (पाकिस्तान सिख चरमपंथी) का लाहौर की जनसभा में दिया भाषण देखें: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5uqJqc2G7k
12. “हिंदूज प्रोटेस्ट हाफिज सईद्स हाउस अरेस्ट”, द एक्सप्रेस ट्रिब्यून, 2 फरवरी, 2017: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1314323/raising-voice-hindus-protest-hafiz-..
13. जैगम खान, “रिलीजियस पॉलिटिक्स आफ्टर एनए-120”, द न्यूज, 25 सितंबर, 2017: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/232377-Religious-politics-after-NA-120
14. जिया उर रहमान, “प्रो-मुमताज कादरी रिलीजियस ग्रुप मॉर्फिंग इनटु मिलिटेंट आउटफिट”, द न्यूज, 31 जुलाई, 2017: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/220108-Pro-Mumtaz-Qadri-religious-group..
15. तनवीर अहमद के समर्थन में हुई टीएलवाई की सभा देखें, जहां उसकी प्रशंसा में लिखी गई नशीद गाई जा रही थी: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCsxTkvLEp4
16. सेवरिन कैरेल, “मैन हू मर्डर्ड ग्लासगो शॉपकीपर असद शाह इन सेक्टेरियन अटैक जेल्ड”, द गार्डियन, 9 अगस्त, 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/09/tanveer-ahmed-jailed-for...
17. मशाल खान के हत्यारों के बचाव में खादिम हुसैन रिजवी की दलीलें देखिए: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZQ9IAPKvf8
18. टीएलवाई और मुमताज कादरी के समर्थन में शेख रशीद अहमद का भाषण देखिए: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzpn6yIsUAk
19. पीर सैयद अमीन-उल-हसनत शाह की इस्लामाबाद में तहरीक-ए-लबाइक रसूल-उल्ला प्रतिनिधिमंडल से मुलाकात, रेडियो पाकिस्तान, 18 मई, 2017: www.radio.gov.pk/18-May-2016/pir-syed-amin-ul-hasnat-shah-meets-tehreek-...
20. मुमताज कादरी पर हसनत शाह का भाषण देखिए: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtoC6h59ksc
21. नदीम एफ पारचा, “द अपकमिंग बैटलग्राउंड”, डॉन, 6 अगस्त, 2017: https://www.dawn.com/news/1349892/smokers-corner-the-upcoming-battleground
22. राणा तनवीर, “लॉमेकर-इलेक्ट मसरूर झांगवी जॉइन्स जेयूआई-एफ”, द एक्सप्रेस ट्रिब्यून, 7 दिसंबर, 2016: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1256528/lawmaker-elect-masroor-jhangvi-join..
23. आसिफ शहजाद, “पाकिस्तान आर्मी पुश्ड पॉलिटिकल रोल फॉर मिलिटेंट-लिंक्ड ग्रुप्स”, रॉयटर्स, 16 सितंबर, 2017: https://in.reuters.com/article/pakistan-politics-militants/pakistan-army...
24. हुसैन हक्कानी, पाकिस्तानः बिटवीन मॉस्क एंड मिलिटरी, कार्नेगी एंडाउमेंट फॉर इंटरनेशनल पीस, 2005, पृष्ठ 70-79
25. “हामिद गुल एक्सेप्ट्स रिस्पॉन्सिबिलिटी फॉर क्रिएटिंग आईजेआई”, डॉन, 30 अक्टूबर, 2012: https://www.dawn.com/news/760219
26. इम्तियाज अहमद, “आईएसआई बिहाइंड न्यू पॉलिटिकल पार्टी, दिफा-ए-पाक”, हिंदुस्तान टाइम्स, 21 फरवरी, 2012: www.hindustantimes.com/world/isi-behind-new-political-party-difa-e-pak/s..
27. सलमान मसूद, “पाकिस्तानी लीडर इस्केप्स अटेंप्ट एट असेसिनेशन”, द न्यूयॉर्क टाइम्स, 26 दिसंबर, 2003: www.nytimes.com/2003/12/26/world/pakistani-leader-escapes-attempt-at-ass..
28. कराची स्वतः संज्ञान कार्रवाई मामले में पाकिस्तानी सर्वोच्च न्यायालय का 2011 का फैसला देखें: www.supremecourt.gov.pk/web/user_files/File/SMC16of2011_detailed_judgmen...

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Translated by: Shiwanand Dwivedi (Original Article in English)
Image Source: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/pakistani-terrorist-charity-launch...

Reservations: Degenerating to Political Expediency

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Commentary - In Complete Control: Xi Jinping is China’s Undisputed Leader

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal, Visiting Fellow, VIF

As had been widely anticipated, President Xi Jinping consolidated his position as the undisputed “core” leader of China at the 19^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held at Beijing in the third week of October 2017. Xi was also re-elected to all three posts that he has been holding for almost five years since the 18th National Congress: President of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

In a move that placed him on the same pedestal as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, the National Congress unanimously passed an amendment to the party’s constitution to include “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” in the party’s constitution as one of its guiding principles.

Xi’s “Belt and Road Initiative”, an ambitious infrastructure development programme designed to link China with its regional neighbours and beyond was also included in the party constitution. Xi ensured that only his protégés and those personally loyal to him were elected to the seven-member Standing Committee of the Politburo, China’s most powerful governing council.

Report Card

Reading out his report card at the marathon opening session of the National Congress, Xi presented China as an indispensable force in countering global economic sluggishness. He said China had contributed significantly to dealing with international peacekeeping, regulating global economic governance, reshaping multilateral institutions, spurring global efforts to fight climate change, enhancing energy security and improving global health. He made no mention of the instability caused by Chinese military assertiveness in the East and South China Seas and by the blatant disregard of a rules-based international order.

The princeling son of a revolutionary leader, Xi is the first civilian chairman of the CMC and presides over a 2.3 million-strong PLA, the world's largest armed forces. The 19th National Congress was utilised by Xi Jinping, who is also the Commander-in-Chief, to demonstrate his complete control over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). One of the key stratagems that facilitated his rise to the position of undisputed numero uno was his carefully choreographed plan to gain control over the PLA.

Xi realised this goal through military reforms, the promotion of loyalists and the removal of Generals who did not happily toe the line. He launched a ruthless drive against corruption and had a large number of officers of the rank of Major General arrested. It has been reported that by March 2017, approximately 5,000 officers had been punished for graft; many other senior officers were forcibly retired.

Military Reforms and Strategic Outreach

Large-scale military reforms were initiated by Xi Jinping to make the PLA a more modern force that can preserve China’s territorial integrity and project power in China’s area of strategic interest to extend China’s strategic outreach through increased military presence overseas, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sweeping reforms of the military to enhance combat readiness and operational efficiency included the cutting of troop levels by 300,000 personnel. Reforms have led to the disbandment of the four ‘traditional’ General Departments (General Staff, Political, Logistics and Equipment) and the establishment of 15 new departments all of which have been placed directly under the CMC. Under these 15 departments will be 84 restructured corps-level ‘units’.

These units include the provincial military commands, military academies and universities that come directly under the Ministry of Defence. They also include the headquarters of the PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force (erstwhile Second Artillery) and the newly constituted Strategic Support Force. The seven existing Military Regions have been dismantled and five ‘outward looking’ joint theatre commands have been established. Five group armies (corps-level formations) have also been disbanded, leaving 13 still standing.

The PLA Navy is getting the maximum attention in the military modernisation drive energised by Xi Jinping. launched its first aircraft carrier in April 2017; in June it introduced Asia’s most advanced guided missile destroyer; it is developing cutting-edge propulsion technology; and, is building large amphibious assault vessels.

Demanding the PLA’s Loyalty

Officially, the PLA is the armed wing of the Communist Party and Xi Jinping has often reminded the PLA leadership of this fact. In April 2017, Xi Jinping demanded that all military units should be absolutely loyal to the Communist Party. In August 2017, Xi asserted, “You shall be unswervingly loyal to the absolute leadership that the party has over the army, heed the call of the party, follow the party.”

At the 19th National Congress, Xi again asked the PLA to be absolutely loyal to the ruling Communist Party. He set two goals for the PLA: to become a modern fighting force by 2035 and to then graduate to the world’s best military force by 2050; and, intensify its combat readiness by focusing on how to win wars. The message to India is clear: expect more transgressions of the Doklam variety.

With the support of the Party and the PLA, President Xi Jinping plans to continue his pursuit of the “Chinese Dream” – an inspirational slogan coined by him to reflect the people’s aspiration for a rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. However, the unfettered realisation of the Chinese Dream will be possible only in a peaceful and stable environment. In order to promote a regional security environment conducive to socio-economic development, China will have to tone down its military assertiveness and confrontational attitude and graduate to cooperation and respect for a rules-based international order.

(The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi)

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF.)

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Image Source: https://eastisread.wordpress.com/2015/02/13/chinese-dreams-and-the-afric...

Key to Conflict Management in Kashmir is People, Politics and Perception

Brig Narender Kumar

Violence is a type of backwardness and it is enormously powerful tool to coerce the communally fractured population to revolt against the state. But sustaining the uprising would need psychological mentoring and shaping of the perception of the people against the state. Physical violence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) commenced in early 90’s but passive aggression that targeted multi-cultural and multi-religious society started much earlier. In fact, Pakistan found a deadly mix of direct violence with cultural and structural violence to target secular and democratic institutions of the state.

Johan Galtung a Norwegian Peace Researcher said, “Structural violence is injustice and exploitation built into a social system that generates wealth for the few and poverty for the many, stunting everyone’s ability to develop their full humanity.” The political and administrative system created an environment where the administrative machinery is manipulated to benefit few with the result that the majority is deprived. He further says, “Cultural violence is the prevailing attitudes and beliefs that justify and legitimize the structural violence, making it seem natural.”¹ Cultural violence is acceptance of social, political and cultural ills as part of the system. When combined with the direct violence it denies the space for reconciliation. If the conflict in Kashmir is empirically examined, Pakistan has taken advantage of cultural and structural violence that existed in Kashmir to exploit the fracture and void created by political and administrative system. Pakistan just used the governance deficit to set in motion an asymmetric and hybrid war.

The state responded firmly against the direct violence but left the fast receding public and private space uncontested that was slowly acquired by radicals and proxies of Pakistan. It is an irony that neither political leadership nor other organs of the state could identify the multi-dimensional aspects of this war. The disaffection and perceptional change has not come suddenly but it is the result of a well-choreographed strategy by Pakistan through its proxies to shape the perceptions of the individuals and the society. Pakistan itself is surprised at the success of their hybrid war strategy in Kashmir and except for dealing with terrorism, India has found it hard to confront other dimensions of the hybrid war. It could be due to lack of understanding or lack of asymmetric and hybrid capabilities to respond back to Pakistan.

After three decades of conflict in Kashmir physical violence has done lesser harm to the Kashmiri society but cultural and structural violence has caused irreversible damage. Pakistan was aware that they cannot fight and win war on Kashmir militarily but will have to adopt a strategy of direct and passive aggression (passive aggression is difficult to detect till it has already achieved the operational objectives and is one of the most potent component of hybrid war). As part of the passive aggression Pakistan put into effect two strategies. The ‘inner front strategy’, by working against the state from within, focused on creating a perception that people of Kashmir are victim of Indian occupation and Kashmir is not an integral part of India. The strategy created a psychological hatred towards the symbol of India and a perception that political system is a puppet regime imposed on people of Kashmir. Thus eroded and discredited administrative and political system of J&K. Second, ‘misperception strategy’ by weaving seamless blend of facts and fictions at such a rapid pace, ultimately controls the perception of the people and fog their logic to decipher truth from lies. This was being done when India was largely focused on dealing with the terrorism and these two strategies almost went unnoticed. But what was going behind the fog of mistrust and misrepresentation was neither effectively contested nor disrupted.

What did Pakistan do to Destroy the Enlightened Values of Kashmiris?

Pakistan, through its proxies and modules, commenced obliteration of history and culture from collective memory of the people and society. Pakistan and its proxies targeted the very platform that bonded with other cultures, faith and societies by denouncing Sufism, Kashmir folk culture, music and Kashmiri poetry as un-Islamic practice and Hindu conspiracy against the Muslims of Kashmir. Pakistan found that biggest impediment in creating a space to fight from within Kashmir were Kashmiriyat, Shrine and Sufism. Pakistan proxies found it easy to indoctrinate youth and difficult to alter the faith of the older generation from Kashmiriyat, Shrines and Sufism. Simultaneously, it blocked and disrupted the intellectual discourse among the people of different faith and community. In order to kill memory and collective wisdom they chose to kill the sense of judgment of the people and social order by calibrated violence and targeting the institutions that were custodian of societal conscience. Pakistan through their proxies destroyed everything that belonged to the people so that they could write new narrative to create disaffection with India. The stone pelting, intolerance among people and youth against the symbol of India is the outcome of this passive aggression of Pakistan that went uncontested for over three decades now.

The characteristics of Pakistani propaganda is that it is generating very strong emotions, aggression, and has managed dramatic departure of society from the reality. ² The manufactured lie and web of misinformation by Pakistan has created societal amnesia that has managed to disorient and destroy the cultural heritage that had survived for more than 2500 years. Pakistan on one hand targeted cognitive domain of the Kashmiri Awam and on other side it targeted Indian state. In reality, Pakistan managed to pitch people against the state. This is one of the objectives of hybrid war which Pakistan has ably achieved.

The contours of asymmetric and hybrid war started emerging clearly sometime post 2005 when terrorism and violence was brought to a manageable limit by security forces. But the inability of the state in deliverance of governance gave a window of opportunity to Pakistan to shift gear and put in place more lethal hybrid war in practice. In fact, the dimensions of non-linear warfare are very wide and are very difficult to contain once it gets space to operate. India committed cardinal mistakes when it defined conflict in Kashmir as militancy, and later as proxy war. On the political front within Kashmir, successive governments termed it as separatist’s movement but probably they overlooked the contours of conflict that were indicative of more lethal hybrid war. But if the trend lines are examined carefully, it has all the ingredients of a potent hybrid war and response thereof should have been hybrid in nature. To consider that such a war can be handled by military was a miscalculation and the government continues to commit this cardinal mistake even today. One must realise that elimination of terrorists is insignificant if state is unable to win back the trust of the people.

Condition of Kashmir today is similar to Rome when Roman Empire fell and state plunged into chaos and unfolded an era that was characterized by barbarism, intolerance and regression. What happened in Rome was in complete contrast to the cultural richness of earlier society of Rome. Similarly, Kashmir is plunging into an irretrievable chaos in contrast to its culture that propagated peace, prosperity and co-existence of pluralistic society. In spite of the repeated invasion on Kashmir it maintained principle of co-existence of multiethnic and multi religious societies that were strengthened by enlightened values of the Kashmiri culture. The Kashmiriyat survived because the past invaders attacked the physical characters of the state but did not attack the enlightened values of Kashmiriyat. Whereas, Pakistan has been shrewd enough to identify this aspect and systematically dismantled the enlightened values of Kashmiriyat to change the course of the conflict. Herbert Schillar had said free and equal access to knowledge act as bulwark to meet the democratic aspirations of the people and nation. ³ Problem of Kashmir is that the access to knowledge has been blocked through a narrative propagated by radicals by converting the very temples of knowledge (Education Institutions) into radicalisation centers that denounced the Kashmiriyat and cultural heritage.

Has Pakistan Disabled Kashmir Politically and Psychologically?

Once the state is fractured on ethnic, religious and cultural lines, dysfunctional and corrupt administration provides an ideal target for psychological warfare and a strategic window of opportunity to a shrewd adversary.⁴ A peace and war scenario has been fatally blurred in Kashmir and unfortunately the security forces and intelligence agencies have completely overlooked and misjudged the potential of this dimension of hybrid war in Kashmir. This phenomenon is evident from the fact that tourism, education, health services, law and order, developmental activities and public grievances system has collapsed and stand completely eroded. Democratic institutions stand marginalised and discredited. Drug menace, black marketing of essential goods, smuggling of timber and fake currency have become backbone of a parallel conflict economy. A state without liberty and individuality has no future and that is what Pakistan has managed to do with the people of Kashmir. On the name of self-determination people have no voice of their own and the emotions are controlled and charged by proxies. People seems to be slaves of the dictates of the terrorists and separatists. People know the disastrous consequences of the harm Pakistan has done to the current and future generations of Kashmir but the anti-India sentiment is so strong that people refuse to see the logic. It is evident that Pakistan has effectively disabled Kashmir politically and psychologically.
The government should acknowledge that application of military force is not a solution to the complex problem of Kashmir. It is psychological, attitudinal, social, political and economic. Government should worry more about wining trust of the people back and let the terrorism be handled by the security forces.

It is a Different War that India Needs to Defeat

Is there something repeatedly irrational that India continues to choose to fight hybrid war by conventional means? General Gerasimov, Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, wrote that “The very rules of war has changed. The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals have grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness especially against hybrid threat.”⁵ Domination of informational battle has become essential components of modern warfare and it cannot be left uncontested. The information war has no relation to reality and is a provocation that is employed to disorient the population, security forces and to create a window of opportunity for non-state actors to exploit the exposed flanks. Whereas, counter measures should hit the enemy with strategies that appear noble and benign and operate completely outside the conventional domain. One of the principles of fighting a hybrid war is that there is no moral taint to fight it because hybrid war is fought in moral and immoral domain. Thus moral high ground in combating hybrid or unrestricted war is willful acceptance to fight with a handicap and it is a retrograde strategy.

Focus of the Government of India and J&K should be to win the trust of the people. No nation can achieve greatness by defeating its own people. Ultimately the people should emerge winner because state consists of its people. Thus rhetoric and media barbs needs to be moderated so that it does not give an impression that state is fighting against its own people. The perception in valley is that India is against people of Kashmir. This perception needs to be altered through continuous interaction and reconciliatory discourse. The Gerasimov doctrine on hybrid war calls for the fundamental blending and integration of the non-military means with the conventional and sub conventional military tools. What India should learn from the Gerasimov doctrine is the coordination between military and non-military actors with an objective to deal with direct, cultural and structural violence. Hybrid war requires people centric focus, the space that is acceded to non-state actors or proxies can be regained by deliverance of governance and a sustained psychological and information war by involving people of Kashmir.

It will be fatal to believe that India will be able to defeat the hybrid threat from Pakistan while fighting it in Kashmir. Kashmir war has to be fought in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), Baluchistan and even at global level. It is absence of strategic thinking if India choses to fight the Kashmir war within Kashmir; it is important to deny exposed flank to reverse the threat where it hurts the most. Government should handle Kashmir under the following verticals:-

• Fight Hybrid war with hybrid resources. Military and non-military resources should be applied in a synergized manner to address each aspect of nonlinear character of hybrid war in Kashmir. It will bear fruits if it is continuous and maintained at a sustained pace.
• Focused and concerted efforts to defeat strategy with a superior strategy. There is no moral taint to invoke ‘strategy of inner front’ and ‘misperception strategy’ against Pakistan. The loss to Pakistan should be unbearable. Julius Caesar had said, “No one is so brave that he is not disturbed by something unexpected”. ⁶ India must look at unexpected and beyond the conventional limits.
• If the centre of gravity is the people, in that case first and foremost is deliverance of governance. If political leadership fails to achieve this, it must be executed professionally by an executive council consisting of professionals, politicians, bureaucrats and law enforcing agencies of high integrity.

Conclusion

Application of a strategy must have continuity, consistency and surprise factor. Synergy and simultaneity is a must to deal with an adversary that has mastered the art of asymmetric and hybrid war. To defeat passive aggression, India must bridge the void and deny exposed flanks. Essence of fighting such a war is, ‘give no targets before you strike back’. Every strategy has an ideal counterstrategy,⁷ it is unlikely that all strategies will favour Pakistan, some strategies could be employed to reverse the threat and those strategies need to be identified and exploited. Policy makers must remember that at times killing and elimination of terrorists and insurgents unite their ranks and files in desperation. Undue highlighting of the success achieved by security forces could be counter-productive and may lead to alienation of the population further. There is a need to show humane side after the terrorists and insurgents are eliminated especially with the friends and family.

There may be a wisdom to follow what Machiavelli said, “assault a disunited city to seize it” and “unite a divided city so as to hold it”. ⁸ Wise of the city must sit down to bring back the memory of peace, tranquility and communal harmony that protected the Kashmiri culture for more than 2000 years, making efforts through reconciliation to reorder, reunite and restore sanity in Kashmir. Indian policy makers must remember what Edward Luttwak said, “Insurgents do not always win, but their defeats can rarely be attributed to counter-insurgency operations”.⁹

Endnotes

1. William T. Hathaway, Varieties of Violence: Structural, Cultural, and Direct, Transcend Media Service, October 21, 2013.
2. Armand Gosu and Octavian Manea, The Russian psychological warfare, Accessed from http://www.roec.biz/bsad/portfolio-item/the-russian-psychological-warfare/ on October 19,2017.
3. Rebecca Knuth, Libricide: The Regime-sponsored Destruction of Books and Libraries in the Twentieth century, Praeger Publications, P 34.
4. Armand Gosu and Octavian Manea, The Russian psychological warfare, Accessed from http://www.roec.biz/bsad/portfolio-item/the-russian-psychological-warfare/ on October 19,2017.
5. Mark Galeotti, “The Gerasimov Doctrine and Russian Non-linear War”, July, 2014. https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine...
6. Robert Greene, The 36 Strategies of War, Viva Books Pvt Ltd, 2006, P 317.
7. Ivan Arreguín-Toft, How the Weak Win Wars A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict, International Security, Accessed from https://web.stanford.edu/class/polisci211z/2.2/Arreguin-Toft%20IS%202001... on Oct 20,2017, P 104.
8. Patrick J. Coby, Machiavelli’s Romans: Liberty and Greatness in the Discourses on Livy, Lexington Books, 1999, P 127.
9. Raj Shukla, Review Article Counter-Insurgency Warfare as Military malpractice by Edward Luttwak published in CLAWS Journal Summer 2012.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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Commentary - J&K: Special Representative’s Road Ahead will not be Easy

 
Arvind Gupta, Director - VIF

Appointment of Mr Dineshwar Sharma , former Director of Intelligence Bureau (DIB), as special ‘Representative’(SR) by the government for Kashmir to interact with the wide cross section of society in Kashmir to understand their “legitimate aspirations” is a positive and bold step. While there have been many calls for a dialogue in Kashmir, most analysts had surmised that the government would continue to follow a hardline approach. Yet, the government has managed to surprise every one and taken the initiative in its hands. The appointment of Special Representative has the Prime Minister’s support.

It is also a timely step because over the last few months the government has been able to bring the law and order situation under control. PM spoke of a conciliatory approach on Kashmir,“…..Nagoli se, nagali se………”, from the Red Fort. The Home Minister has undertaken several visits to Kashmir. Some stability has returned to Kashmir. The Government waited for this moment. This is the right time for the Government to launch an initiative in Kashmir. By conducting operations against terrorists, the Government sent a signal that lawlessness and terrorism will be tackled with a firm hand.

The Government move also shows that it is ready to follow a multi-pronged strategy in Kashmir. A firm approach in dealing with terrorism is being complemented with a political approach. The move has been generally appreciated by the stake holders although some criticism has been made that the interlocutor should have been a ‘political’ personality rather than an ex-DIB. But the credentials of the new SR are impeccable and this has been accepted by all. Further, being a non-political personality, he is better placed to have an unbiased approach.

The important point to consider is how the process will move further. Only time will tell. In the past there have been several initiatives which did not succeed. The state of J&K has gone through a turbulent time in the last one year or so. So, it is natural that there would be heighted expectations as well as skepticism. The Hurriyat seems to be rejecting the dialogue with SR but one will have to wait and watch how the situation develops when the he begins his work.

The media will have a role to play in the success of the initiative. Hyper-ism should be avoided and no artificial deadlines should be imposed. The process should be allowed to take its own course. The political parties, one hopes, will keep national interest rather than narrow partisan interests uppermost while reacting to the initiative. Also, it would be better that expectations are tempered down and kept more realistic.

The previous initiatives did not succeed. Why? The issues involved are complex and carry the historical baggage of 70 years of history during which many mistakes were made by all sides. Also, the external sponsorship of terrorism and militancy has complicated the problem immensely.

Be that as it may, the special Representative should have an open mind. He should listen to all sides without preconceived notions. Now that the government has decided to appoint a Representative, he should be open to discussion with the entire political spectrum and all sections of the society.

However, one thing has to be kept in mind. Talks and violence cannot go hand-in-hand here. Talking cannot be a license for violence. Similarly, the security forces cannot afford to lower their guard against Pak sponsored infiltrators and tanzeems. Those who instigate violence should be dealt with in accordance with law. Further, lessons should be drawn from the previous experiences. A proper assessment of the earlier episodes should be made and factored in.

In an interview to The Hindu (31 Oct 2017), The Mr Dineshwar Sharma said that government’s focus is on bringing “permanent peace” in Kashmir. “Permanent solution and peace can only be brought about the dialogue”, he said. He stated that the government has given him “a free hand to speak to anyone” as he wanted. The people of Jammu and Ladakh would also be included in the dialogue. The final call, however, will be of the Government.

It is not difficult to guess what issues might be raised by different stakeholders. Some of these would be: Article 370, autonomy, self-rule, pellet guns, socio-economic development, Pakistan’s role, terrorism, Kashmiri Pundits, aspirations of the youth etc. Some questions are of political nature while others will be of socio-economic development, cultural character. The regional disparities – the aspirations of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Poonch etc. would also be raised. Some sections may even boycott the SR, just to make a point or gain publicity. The SR should take all this in his stride.

Different stakeholders would have varying agendas. This can be expected. Sometimes, these agendas are irreconcilable. But the government should be cautious. The agenda of the radical elements, jihadis and separatists should not be allowed to succeed. The initiative cannot be a road to disintegration of India.

The J&K Representative’s efforts deserve to be supported but the road ahead will not be easy.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF.)

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