Seminar on “India-China Relations and the Way Forward”

On 6 November 2017, the Vivekananda International Foundation and the Institute of Chinese Studies jointly held a joint seminar on the “India-China Relations and the Way Forward”. A delegation comprising of Prof. Zhao Bole, Prof. Lu Gang and Prof. Yu Xinli from Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, and Prof Tan Chung participated in the Seminar. The Chinese Ambassador, Mr. Luo Zhaohui, delivered the keynote address. On the Indian side, Director VIF, Dr. Arvind Gupta, delivered the opening remarks. Director of Institute of Chinese Studies Amb. Ashok K Kantha and Amb. TCA Rangachari, Distinguish Fellow, VIF, also participated in the Seminar. The discussion was divided into two sessions: ‘India-China Relations and Cultural Ties’ and ‘Economy in India-China Relations’. The Seminar was attended by the members of the strategic community, scholars from the other think tanks, students and members of the Chinese embassy in India.

Salient points that emerged from the discussions were as follows:

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China

Indian participants congratulated the delegation for the successful commencing the 19th Party Congress. Inclusion of “Xi Jinping’s Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”, is a major outcome of the 19th National Congress. Evidently, China will enhance its national strength in military, economic and political realm. This will have an impact in the region, and the world.

The Chinese delegates expounded on the major diplomatic initiatives taken by Xi Jinping, pointing that in the past five years, Xi Jinping has travelled extensively around the world. They further poited out that Xi Jinping’s thought on major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics entails two proposition: forge a new form of international relations and build a community with a shared future for mankind. This new diplomacy is against the zero-sum game and stands for peaceful coexistence.

The Border Dispute

The Chinese delegates emphasized that the linking of boundary issue with the bilateral relations is an “old mindset”; it will bring down the prospect of cooperation. The boundary issue must be resolved as soon as possible to mutual satisfaction, they opined. They considered the 1988 visit by Rajiv Gandhi’s visit as a historic visit as it helped to delink the boundary talks with the bilateral issue and that itt was only after his visit the cooperation in different areas of bilateral relations began.

The Indian side stated that the boundary question is outstanding for too long while there is a need for clarification of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to show some progress on the issue. They added that in the new era of China’s progress, these issues should be resolved satisfactorily. It was clarified that this observation does not really imply ‘old mindset’ or going back to pre-1988 position. Guidelines for resolving the boundary issue was spelt out in 2005, and that the Agreement between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the ‘Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question, 2005’ remains the basic framework for resolving the boundary question. They pointed out that the 2005 agreement has been eroded in a very significant manner and that putting it in the backburner is a disservice to ourselves. The unresolved boundary issue can generate mistrust between the two sides and can lead to a more serious situations than the Doklam stand-off.

The Doklam Issue

The Chinese delegates refered to Doklam as an “unfortunate story”. The Indian delegates said that Doklam issue was a setback to bilateral relations. They stated that many difficulties have arisen in the bilateral relations and Doklam was one such episode which fortunately has been resolved. Earlier, there had been the incidents at Chumar and Depsang. Such Incidents cause setbacks to bilateral relations. The two sides need to deepen mutual understanding so that such incidents do not recur and differences do not become disputes, they suggested.

The Belt and Road Initiative

The Indian delegates raised doubts about the motivation behind the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), pointing out that the initiatives are unilateral and aimed at enhancing China’s geopolitical influence. China should also be sensitive to the sovereignty concerns of other countries.

The Chinese delegates called the BRI as the ‘new commandment for Asia’, as the initiative will promote peace and stability in the region. Continuing, they stated that it is a part of Xi Jinping’s concept of international relations in which the focus is on “shared future”. Although it can go forward without India’s participation it may not be as successful as it was conceived to be. The Indian delegates mentioned their concern vis-à-vis the BRI and stated that India is not ready to assume a subordinate role in the project. They also pointed out the ongoing competition between India and China in their periphery, both in land and water.

People to People Contact

The Chinese delegates emphasized that the government to government interactions are not sufficient, there is a need for more people to people interaction. Frequent interactions help in correcting the misperception on each side and public diplomacy can partly solve the problem between the two countries, they suggested, this being the most rational and healthy way to interact with each other. More Memoranda of Understanding between the Chinese University and the think tanks with their counterpart in India and more translation projects from both the side was suggested. They also recommended that both sides should invest in promoting student exchanges. This will help in connecting the two civilizations in a much better way. The Indian delegates welcomed the fact that as many as 50 students from China are participating in the 80th anniversary of the 'Cheena Bhavana', and called for more such people to people exchanges.

Different Perception of the Evolving World Order

The Chinese delegates expressed their concern over the India, US, Japan and Australia meeting. The Indian side emphasized that it is not directed against any country and that India maintains its ‘Strategic Autonomy’, this being one of the tenants of the India’s Foreign Policy. Further, the Indian side made it clear that there is a difference of perception from both the sides about the evolving geopolitics. India has welcomed the ‘Rise of China’ but there are apprehensions about China’s assertive behavior in certain areas. India is concerned that China is no longer interested in a multipolar world order. The term multi-polarity is mentioned in the 19th Party Congress work report but it no longer seems to be the preoccupation of China, they averred.

The Way Forward for the Bilateral Relations

The Indian participants observed that India-China relations is at an inflexion point. The consensus reached between the two leaders at the Xiamen should be the guiding principle for the bilateral relations. Seemingly, the bilateral difference has occupied higher profile. There is a need to take a fresh look at the modus vivendi. The existing ones do not really address the issue in a forthright way. We need to build on the positives of the relationship and take forward the agreements reached in 2014 during Xi Jinping’s visit to India and PM Modi’s visit to China in 2015. Today we have strong leaders on both sides who can take advantage of this positive situation. The investments made by the two leaders in the bilateral relations is immense. Both the countries should acknowledge the existing convergence of interests in the international sphere, for example in West Asia and Afghanistan.

The Chinese delegates responded by stating that India and China are the two civilizations created by the Himalayas. There is no fundamental difference between the two societies. Both the countries need to focus on long-term goals like Free Trade Area (FTA) arrangement, Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, early harvest on the border issue and alignment of the BRI with India’s development strategy. The forthcoming meetings of foreign ministers and State Councillor Yang Jiechi’s visit to attend the 20th round of border talks is a good opportunity to build on the positives of the relations.

Both sides acknowledged the prevailing distrust in India-China relations and the need to diminish it through a variety of measures. It was also felt that strengthening people–to- people contact would help in bridging the trust gap. In summary, the Indian delegates stressed on addressing the real issues of the bilateral relation while the Chinese sides were emphasizing more on people-to-people contact and issues of their own interest.

Event Date: 

November 6, 2017

Commentary: The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Status of Taiwan

Dr Teshu Singh, Senior Research Associate, VIF

On 18 October 2017 Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. While speaking on the section of ‘Upholding One Country, Two Systems’ and ‘Moving towards National Reunification’, he mentioned about the cross-strait relations. He said, “The One-China principle is the political foundation of cross-Straits relations. The ‘1992 Consensus’ embodies the ‘One-China’ principle and defines the fundamental nature of cross-Straits relations; it thus holds the key to the peaceful development of relations between the two sided of the Taiwan Straits.” He also stressed that, “We will never allow anyone, any organisation, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”

Commenting on the Xi Jinping’s stance Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said that “Now is an opportunity for change”. She further added, “Taipei and Beijing should work together to seek a breakthrough in their ties, create long-lasting benefits for their people and permanently defuse cross-strait hostility and people’s fear of war.” She acknowledged the fact that the reason for the stalemate in the cross-strait relations is the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) stand of not recognizing the 1992 Consensus as the framework for the cross-strait relations. Further, as a response to Tsai Ing-wen’s statement, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said, “The political basis for relations across the Taiwan Strait was the ‘One-China’ policy, which states that the mainland and Taiwan are part of one China.”

On 20 October 2017, Taiwan’s Chief Cabinet Minister Lai Ching-de responded directly by pronouncing Taiwan’s six “determinations”: Taiwan’s determination to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty will not change, Taiwan’s determination to defend and maintain its freedom, democracy, human rights and life will not change; Taiwan’s determination to develop its economy and make Taiwan stronger and greater will not change; Taiwan’s determination to seek common grounds through exchange while setting aside differences to deepen peaceful development between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland will not change; Taiwan’s determination to defend and maintain the right of the Taiwanese people to make future choices will not change; and Taiwan’s determination to defend regional peace and security will not change.

Seemingly, there is no change in China’s stance towards Taiwan in Xi Jinping’s speech. At the 18th Party Congress, Hu Jintao said, “We must adhere to the principle of ‘peaceful reunification and one country, two systems’ and the ‘eight–point proposal for growing cross-straits relations and advancing peaceful reunification of the motherland’. Notably, this time, Xi Jinping appeared to be much tougher than his predecessors. The palpable reason for this stance is the coming of a pro-independence party DPP to power. The overarching policy of the DPP is to deepen Taiwan’s relation with the US and Japan and diversify its trade with the South, Southeast and East Asia.

In January 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the DPP, won the election and became the President of Taiwan. The cross-strait relations were one of the central issues in the elections because the previous Guomintang-led government was very close to China. On the contrary, DPP supported independence for Taiwan. Since the beginning, Tsai Ing-wen has refused to acknowledge the One-China policy and has maintained ambiguity over the 1992 Consensus. She does not consider it as the only option for dealing with China, rather considers this issue to be related to the identity of Taiwanese citizens and believes that it requires the full understanding and participation of the people. Notably, in her first National Day speech in 2016, she did not use the term ‘1992 Consensus’; instead she said, “We respect the historical fact that in 1992 the two institutions representing each side across strait held a meeting.” Stressing on the identity of Taiwan in her speech, she used the word “country” instead of the “island nation”. As she came to power, the cross-strait relations have been deteriorating, China has cut-off its official communication with Taiwan, the Mainland Affairs Council. There are no official channels between the two sides.

Taiwan is a critical issue for China. It is one of the “core interests” along with Tibet, Xinjiang and the South China Sea. Xi Jinping, in his speech, has once again made it clear that recognising the 1992 Consensus is the pre-condition for China to resume the dialogue mechanism. In all possibility, China will increase its pressure on Taiwan. It has already tried to stop Taiwan’s participation in the international organisations like the International Civil Aviation Organisation and World Health Assembly. China has pressurized countries like Panama to cut-off its diplomatic ties with Taiwan as a pre-condition to establishing its ties with China. Besides limiting Taiwan’s diplomatic space, China is trying to discourage Chinese tourists from visiting Taiwan. This has resulted in 30 percent decline in Chinese tourist to Taiwan since May 2016.

Overall, the recent development indicates that cross-strait relations will be rocky in coming times.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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Image Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/11/04/national/politics-diplomacy...

Commentary - In Complete Control: Xi Jinping is China’s Undisputed Leader

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal, Visiting Fellow, VIF

As had been widely anticipated, President Xi Jinping consolidated his position as the undisputed “core” leader of China at the 19^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held at Beijing in the third week of October 2017. Xi was also re-elected to all three posts that he has been holding for almost five years since the 18th National Congress: President of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

In a move that placed him on the same pedestal as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, the National Congress unanimously passed an amendment to the party’s constitution to include “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” in the party’s constitution as one of its guiding principles.

Xi’s “Belt and Road Initiative”, an ambitious infrastructure development programme designed to link China with its regional neighbours and beyond was also included in the party constitution. Xi ensured that only his protégés and those personally loyal to him were elected to the seven-member Standing Committee of the Politburo, China’s most powerful governing council.

Report Card

Reading out his report card at the marathon opening session of the National Congress, Xi presented China as an indispensable force in countering global economic sluggishness. He said China had contributed significantly to dealing with international peacekeeping, regulating global economic governance, reshaping multilateral institutions, spurring global efforts to fight climate change, enhancing energy security and improving global health. He made no mention of the instability caused by Chinese military assertiveness in the East and South China Seas and by the blatant disregard of a rules-based international order.

The princeling son of a revolutionary leader, Xi is the first civilian chairman of the CMC and presides over a 2.3 million-strong PLA, the world's largest armed forces. The 19th National Congress was utilised by Xi Jinping, who is also the Commander-in-Chief, to demonstrate his complete control over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). One of the key stratagems that facilitated his rise to the position of undisputed numero uno was his carefully choreographed plan to gain control over the PLA.

Xi realised this goal through military reforms, the promotion of loyalists and the removal of Generals who did not happily toe the line. He launched a ruthless drive against corruption and had a large number of officers of the rank of Major General arrested. It has been reported that by March 2017, approximately 5,000 officers had been punished for graft; many other senior officers were forcibly retired.

Military Reforms and Strategic Outreach

Large-scale military reforms were initiated by Xi Jinping to make the PLA a more modern force that can preserve China’s territorial integrity and project power in China’s area of strategic interest to extend China’s strategic outreach through increased military presence overseas, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sweeping reforms of the military to enhance combat readiness and operational efficiency included the cutting of troop levels by 300,000 personnel. Reforms have led to the disbandment of the four ‘traditional’ General Departments (General Staff, Political, Logistics and Equipment) and the establishment of 15 new departments all of which have been placed directly under the CMC. Under these 15 departments will be 84 restructured corps-level ‘units’.

These units include the provincial military commands, military academies and universities that come directly under the Ministry of Defence. They also include the headquarters of the PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force (erstwhile Second Artillery) and the newly constituted Strategic Support Force. The seven existing Military Regions have been dismantled and five ‘outward looking’ joint theatre commands have been established. Five group armies (corps-level formations) have also been disbanded, leaving 13 still standing.

The PLA Navy is getting the maximum attention in the military modernisation drive energised by Xi Jinping. launched its first aircraft carrier in April 2017; in June it introduced Asia’s most advanced guided missile destroyer; it is developing cutting-edge propulsion technology; and, is building large amphibious assault vessels.

Demanding the PLA’s Loyalty

Officially, the PLA is the armed wing of the Communist Party and Xi Jinping has often reminded the PLA leadership of this fact. In April 2017, Xi Jinping demanded that all military units should be absolutely loyal to the Communist Party. In August 2017, Xi asserted, “You shall be unswervingly loyal to the absolute leadership that the party has over the army, heed the call of the party, follow the party.”

At the 19th National Congress, Xi again asked the PLA to be absolutely loyal to the ruling Communist Party. He set two goals for the PLA: to become a modern fighting force by 2035 and to then graduate to the world’s best military force by 2050; and, intensify its combat readiness by focusing on how to win wars. The message to India is clear: expect more transgressions of the Doklam variety.

With the support of the Party and the PLA, President Xi Jinping plans to continue his pursuit of the “Chinese Dream” – an inspirational slogan coined by him to reflect the people’s aspiration for a rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. However, the unfettered realisation of the Chinese Dream will be possible only in a peaceful and stable environment. In order to promote a regional security environment conducive to socio-economic development, China will have to tone down its military assertiveness and confrontational attitude and graduate to cooperation and respect for a rules-based international order.

(The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi)

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF.)

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Image Source: https://eastisread.wordpress.com/2015/02/13/chinese-dreams-and-the-afric...