Some Lessons from Elections – 2012

Brig (retd.) RS Chhikara

Elections 2012 have been over for some time. Media and public have analyzed the results. Political parties are currently busy either celebrating or finding alibis for failure. They also claim to be waiting for a deeper analysis. In the public view the grand old party has received a solid drubbing including in Uttrakhand where they should have won hands down after Pokhriyal did the BJP in, to start with and even after he has done the Good General Khanduri in, through sabotage. They have just about managed to form a government with a contrived majority of one.

Political parties, some glibly, others apologetically and still others blatantly, have coined excuses howsoever belabored, for their failure or that of their vote banks. Others have tried to take credit where there is none. None; not even Maya and Digvijay have admitted defeat with a modicum of grace. Media with their 24 by 7 noise have contrived the highest ever TRPs through mischievous speculations. The dust has yet not settled down fully. Party spokespersons remain as bitterly antagonistic and diversionary as ever, each trying to defend the indefensible and parrying the truth. Our political parties can hardly be expected to speak of learning the right lessons or making a fresh beginning. Grand standing is the order of the day.

So, what are the lessons that our politicians, political parties and the electorate need to take away from these elections? An ordinary citizen voter could hazard a few.

The first of these is perhaps more in the nature of an observation to be noted for the benefit and happiness of all. The Indian voter is astute and wide awake. He has recognized what our politicians and political parties are worth. CWG, 2G, Yeduarappa, Maya Jal, and umpteen other episodes of corruption as also Anna and Ramdev movements are not lost on him/her. Yet, politicians and political parties being a necessary evil in democracy, they have – under duress perhaps, voted for stability, development and hopefully for better governance. The voter has effectively served notice on the chosen parties that severe retribution is in store if his expectations are belied. This is also the first lesson for the Yadavs, Badals, Manohar , Ibobi and whosoever is anointed Chief Minister in Uttrakhand.

Then there is lesson for the losers regardless of whether they are bad losers or worse losers. The voter has shown encouraging signs of rejecting the politics of religion, caste, sub caste, forwards, backwards or most backwards. All Indians, regardless of which vote bank they are perceived to be part of, have demanded to be looked upon with respect and care. The Indian voter demands economic, educational, social and physical development in equal measure as a matter of right – not charity or largesse. In no uncertain terms he has told the political class that elephantine parks, Shared quota of poverty and not even I Pads or laptops will appease him any longer. He will take them but will not vote because of them.

The next lesson is essentially for the Indian National Congress but by extension it is also worthy of recognition by the Badals nd Yadavs. This time around it comes from Amethi and Rai Barreily. Next time it may well be posted from Malwa or Etah. The lesson is that dynastic politics is obsolete. It must be junked. High command culture needs to be jettisoned. People want their representatives to identify with them and not visit them merely on election eve as patronizing maharajas, maharanis, princesses or yuvrajs. Nor do people care much for eloquent but clever by half orators like Sushma, Jaitley,salman or Sibal and other legal luminaries fielded by all political parties, whose sole expertise is to weave clever arguments and justifications, thrusts and parries only to divide the electorate or obfuscate issues. People can see through them. They want their representatives to understand, reflect and represent their simple and straightforward hopes and aspirations and to remain accessible and answerable.

The biggest lesson is for congressmen only; if at all they care to learn. People recognize that the INC has long jettisoned the original Gandhi. They have not demonstrated the least respect for his political ideology or probity in public life. They are too far removed from the ideology of Jawahar Lal Nehru or even of Indira Priyadarshani as well. Present day Gandhis: if indeed they are Gandhis by any contrived lineage, have no claim whatsoever to the political or ideological legacy of any one of these leaders. Not even in matters of Secularism. Sonia, Rahul, Priyanka or for that matter Vadra do not belong either to that clan or to that class. Where is the question of legacy? They as also their sycophants and hangers on are surviving on mutual need and mutual exploitation, all aimed at personal survival and gains. The lesson for congressmen is that the party or their own perch will not last long unless they get out of this opportunistic relationship and return to their original democratic roots. Congress as a party has no long term future unless they jettison these pseudo Gandhis and find new leadership from within themselves and allow fresh leadership to emerge. These elections have given them that rare opportunity which they must not lose. There will certainly be an upheaval in the short term but that would be worth their while for the long term.

There is also a lesson for the BJP. For some time it has been evident that the party is struck somewhere in the middle of an ideological void. They do not seem to be able to decide whether to ape the congress or to follow the VHP. There has not been the slightest indication of clarity on the issue till now but Goa should give some hope. True, the Sunni Muslim voter and strident Hindu reactionary are severely antagonistic. This is historical baggage- pre partition .It is just possible that a serious enough effort at re conciliation has not yet been made. True also, that the pseudo secularists will do their utmost to thwart such reconciliation that has the potential to undo their game of Divide and Rule. Should the congress become significantly weak due to their own shortcomings and should the collateral unintended advantage accrue to the BJP the latter party must shed its blinkers , not walk blind folded into the quagmire of socially divisive politics into which they have been lead by the so called secularists. BJP’s future lies in becoming an all-inclusive party of Indians. Goa has shown them how.

But then, the Muslim voter must also take home a lesson. Have they achieved any worthwhile advantage by allowing the wily politicians to fan and then exploit their ghetto mentality? They need to recognize that they are just as much Indian as a Brahmin or a catholic is. Subhash Chandra Bose and Mohan Das Karam Chand Gandhi were the only two leaders of India who shunned division of Indians along lines of religion and caste. Both have been forgotten by our present day rulers and their vision has been dumped. We need to recognize that these sub identities are the result of political exploitation – not the cause of it. These group identities must not be allowed to override their primary identity as Indians. The future of Indian Muslims lies not with Islamabad, Jeddah or Tehran but within India. Electoral alignments for short term yet elusive gain can only perpetuate their exploitation and consequent exclusion from progress and development.

There is perhaps a lesson for the civil society too. The need for political reform or can we call it political renascence, has been recognized. Record voting percentages are indisputable evidence of the effects of anti-corruption movements on the mind of young India. They will no longer sit back and watch arrogant politicians intoxicated on power to talk down to them. It is for civil society to ensure that the momentum of the phenomenon is not allowed to die down by argumentatively down playing the essence and justification of these movements.

It is not easy for the present polity to self-reform themselves, given their narrow vested interests. They will surely need some help. Can we the people help make it a little easier for them? Can we give them a five year electoral holiday by putting in place a national government of political reconstruction. This would give them time and incentive to think afresh. Can civil society go for it?

Unless at least some of these lessons are learnt there may be no real take away from this massive democratic exercise of 2012. Some opportunities have indeed arisen. Let India not miss out on them. Civil society activists and media must seize the initiative and deliver an unambiguous message to the political class that their business as usual practices have to undergo drastic change.

PLA Navy Long Legs from the Coast to the Blue Water and Deep Seas

Vice Admiral (retd) Barry Barathan

“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength; mastering yourself is true power”. Tao Te Ching

The Chinese Navy nee the People’s Liberation Army Navy has been evolved on the above philosophy.

Openers

The picture below is not an aircraft carrier but a building called the Maritime Education Centre

     OVERHEAD VIEW OF MARITIME EDUCATION CENTRE

• Military exercises designed for training purposes as well as to act as a deterrent;

• Longer-range power projection experiments;

• Military diplomacy in the form of port calls and bilateral cooperation

The PLAN is now focusing beyond merely achieving the capabilities required for a military resolution of the Taiwan issue. In an effort to demonstrate to the World, China's ability to deploy a multi-layered and multi-armed defensive ring around its territorial waters, the PLAN has conducted long-range missile tests off the coast of Nanjing military region featuring PHL03 multiple-launch rocket systems. These have a range of some 150km and can fire precision-guided munitions.
The 10,000-tonne Peace Ark, China's largest hospital ship has also been sent to conduct medical exercises with countries in the Gulf of Aden and along its route. Its “Soft power” sinews are symbolized well, through this deployment wherein its medical crew would provide assistance in Bangladesh, Seychelles, Djibouti, Kenya, and wherever needed.
Over the last three decades China has grown long sea legs as is evident from the above. Leaning from perhaps the British, the Americans on the value of sea power, it has built and still building a reckonable military maritime force that is capable of denying access and raising the threshold of intervention not only in the military sense but also in the context of economic impacts.

Extract from the web-

“A maritime education center opened on Wednesday, 09 June 2011 in Qingdao, a coastal city in east China's Shandong Province, The center opened on the "World Ocean Day" and aims to boost the public's knowledge of China's Ocean resources, said Li Yaozhen, a deputy party chief from the Ocean University of China. Located on the university's Laoshan campus, the 400-square-meter center showcases marine organisms, models of Chinese warships and a "sand map" that displays China's maritime rights and interests. The State Oceanic Administration sponsored the construction of the center. The center will not only be educational for students, but also for the whole Nation, said Li .China has abundant marine resources, with 3 million square kilometers of offshore waters and 32,000 kilometers of coastline. China's maritime industry saw a record annual profit increase of 13 percent over the past five years, hitting 3.8 trillion yuan (579 billion U.S. dollars) last year and employing more than 33 million people.

China should stick to the policy of coordinating the development of its land- and sea-based economies during the 12th Five-year Plan period (2011-2015), Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in April, adding that China should explore and utilize ocean resources and speed up the development of its marine economy”.
Source: Xinhua

Elements of PLA Navy Strategy

The International institute for strategic studies assessment on China’s Naval Strategy makes interesting reading- “The PLA (N) current maritime strategy has three main elements:

It is a maritime strategy which seeks to secure China's access to energy resources and to give it more diplomatic leverage in territorial disputes with its neighbours. It has been able to draw on a military- industrial base and research and development capabilities that have gained maturity through two decades of reform and military modernization.

Of late, Chinese naval and coastal-defense exercises have been unusually intense and numerous. Moving away from the heavily scripted affairs of the past, the emphasis has been on 'real-life' combat situations. Focusing on littoral defense, rapid mobilisation, command-and-control flexibility and longer-range projection, the exercises have been highly significant for the development of the PLAN.

In early April 2010, 16 warships from all three fleets (the North, East and South Sea Fleets) conducted an unprecedented maritime exercise. The vessels sailed within 140km of the Japanese island of Okinawa, through the Bashi Channel, and in the direction of the Malacca Strait. The ships conducted live-firing and anti-submarine drills along the Chinese coast, during which flotillas and air regiments from numerous PLAN bases simulated attacks on the training fleet. The exercise demonstrated that the PLAN had achieved its greatest-ever level of operational flexibility in the simultaneous deployment of underwater, surface and air assets, and has the confidence to sail over longer distances as it seeks to reinforce Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. In July, PLAN fleets conducted a series of drills in response to United States–South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea. Though Beijing understood that the bilateral exercises were a response to North Korea's alleged sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March, it still objected strongly to the presence of the aircraft carrier George Washington so close to Chinese shores. The first of the drills was conducted by Type 022 Houbei-class fast missile-attack vessels of the 16th Fast Attack Flotilla of the East Sea Fleet. The Type 022s, each carrying eight YJ-83 long-range anti-ship missiles, is an important element of China's littoral defense doctrine, using 'wolf pack' tactics aimed at harassing larger enemy fleets from a distance. The most significant outing came later in July when at least a dozen warships from all three fleets conducted a maritime exercise in the South China Sea. They included the most modern vessels from the PLAN's surface and submarine fleets: Type 051C Luzhou, Type 052B Luyang I and Type 052C Luyang II destroyers, Type 054A Jiangkai II frigates, all four of the East Sea Fleet's Sovremenny destroyers, and Kilo-class attack submarines, with JH-7/7A fighter bombers providing air cover. Numerous live-firing and missile tests were carried out. The exercise received widespread domestic media coverage and was attended by a large number of high-ranking PLA personnel, including General Chen Bingde, a Central Military Commission member and Chief of the General Staff Department, who called upon the PLAN to 'pay close attention to regional situations, and be militarily prepared'. Amid tensions in the South China Sea, this long-range combined-arms exercise sent a clear message of deterrence to China's neighbours. It displayed China's abilities and willingness to project its naval power to the South China Sea in a flexible and comprehensive manner.

South China Sea

The naval aviation branch of the PLAN, the PLA Navy Air Force, has provided extensive support towards these efforts.

The above is a pointer to first to the SE Asian littorals and to India that the Cliché,” slowly- slowly catchy monkey” is what China believes in!

Since December 2008 it has deployed naval vessels to the multinational anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. Each four-month rotation usually consists of two destroyers or frigates and one replenishment ship. The PLA terms these 'military operations other than war', and sees them as an opportunity to train officers and test equipment. China has established arrangements for resupply ports. Chinese warships visit Djibouti, Salalah in Oman and Aden in Yemen. China's task force has also begun to participate in meetings at which navies exchange operational information. The PLAN flotillas have participated in joint exercises and officer exchanges, and have been keen to gain experience of anti-piracy tactics from other navies. The PLAN has expressed an interest in taking on more of a collaborative role in the anti-piracy effort, which would be a significant step of its overall approach of acquiring long sea legs.

The PLAN's largest vessel the Kunlun Shan, a 17,000-tonne Type 071 Yuzhao-class landing platform dock (LPD), was dispatched to the Gulf of Aden, carrying a platoon-level force of PLAN marines – the elite of the Chinese navy. With Z-8 medium helicopters, a new landing craft and two new speedboats, the Kunlun Shan was able to test the navy's expeditionary capabilities – vital for a vessel that would play a crucial role in any military action against Taiwan. In August helicopters and marines deployed from the Kunlan Shan repelled three groups of pirate skiffs.

From the Coast to Blue Waters and Deep Sea

(Author is Distinguished Fellow in Vivekananda International Foundation)

Recent Political Turmoil inside the Communist Party of China

Dr. Binod Singh

The Downfall of Bo Xilai

While the world is busy in finding a peaceful solution for Syrian crisis, and saving the Euro Zone, the world’s largest Communist Party of China (CPC) is currently undergoing a power struggle where one of the most ambitious party leaders of Chongqing, Mr. Bo Xilai was removed last week. The outgoing Hu-Wen administration seems determined to clean the house before handing over the power to new generation of Chinese leaders in the late autumn this year.

This incident has generated a huge debate behind the fire walls on the Chinese internet. The demise of Bo Xilai has been termed as one of the most significant event after the downfall of reform minded Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang in 1989. After all, Bo Xilai was seen as the rising star of the princeling group in China. He was the son of Bo Yibo, another reformist leader during the time of Deng Xiaoping. Before shifting to Chongqing, Bo Xilai was the commerce minister of China (2002-2007). Earlier he has been at the helm of affairs in the province of Liaoning. Mr. Wang Dejinag, currently a vice premier has been assigned to look after the Chongqing Municipality.

The story unfolded when one of the Vice Mayor of the Chongqing city, Mr. Wang Lijun was denied asylum when he entered the American consulate in Chengdu. ¹ Wang was the head of Chongqing public security bureau and instrumental in cleaning the city from 3000 brothels and 100 of city gangs. He was especially shifted from Liaoning province (the den of all the major gangs in northern China) to the Chongqing municipality by the leader Bo Xilai, when the latter joined as the party secretary in 2007. Currently Mr. Wang is under surveillance and was not allowed to take part in the recently concluded NPC and CPPCC sessions. He had applied for asylum fearing threat to his life by making him political scapegoat by certain leaders in the party. But why the United States, the only champion of human rights in the world, has denied him asylum is yet not clear. Perhaps Vice President Xi Jinping was expected to travel to the United States on the invitation of Joe Biden. Giving asylum to Wang would have given a quite wrong signal to the China’s president in-waiting.

What will be the fate of Wang Lijun is very obvious to any observer of Chinese Communist party Politics. If not executed, he will be charged with serious crime of sedition and conspiracy and may spend rest of his life behind bars. But during his trial what all the revelations he will make will certainly decide the fate of many small or big party leaders. Mr. Bo Xilai always liked the media lime light and since he shifted to Chongqing, he has been credited with major economic and social reform. He attempted to bridge the rural urban poverty gap by including the rural dwellers into the city benefit facilities. He organized Red-Singing campaigns which had been popular during the cultural revolution of Mao’s time. What has evolved as Chongqing model in the recent media reports was bitten to dust in a fort night. The indication was very clear in the Premier Wen’s press conference on 15^th March after the end of NPC session. In response to a question from AFP journalist, Wen indicated very clearly that a proper investigation will take place and law will take its own course.

Political Reform not on the Cards

On the issue of democracy and popular elections in China, Mr. Li Zhao Xing, the spokesperson for the 12^th NPC & CPPCC, made it very clear that it is too early for China to go for direct election of its leaders, with universal suffrage. China is the largest nation in the world and geographically it is very diverse. There are hundreds of villages still not connected by any transport communication. Currently the Chinese society is also very imbalanced economically; hence it is early for China to go for popular voting.

Now, what would the next course of political reforms in the country is not yet clear. But one thing is very clear that the Chinese Communist Party is intolerant of any disciplinary misbehavior by whosoever it may be. It is premature to conclude that the downfall of Bo Xilai has already exposed the factional struggle inside the party. Earlier the false news of Jiang Zemin (ex Chinese President) had created similar controversies but the party managed to get hold of the editor of Hong Kong Based magazine, who is currently facing trial. Bo many not find any sympathizer in the top leadership who can openly come in his support, but his demise will make sure that the party is united and still far from disintegrating as some observers have predicted. Factionalism inside the party is prevalent from the very beginning, as it is the nature of any political party in the world. Some time it is less visible, but some time it is more when heads roll.

The Rise of Fifth Generation Leaders

In the fall of 2012, China will undergo a major transition in leadership. Xi Jinping, China’s current vice president, is expected to replace Hu Jintao as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and as president of Chi¬na. With this change comes a new generation of Chinese leaders, the rise of “fifth generation”. Seven out of nine members of the Standing Committee—China’s most pow¬erful decision-making body—will also be replaced. It is yet too early to write an obituary for the demise of Mr. Bo Xilai as he still continues to be a member of the politbureau. But it is clear that he is out of the race for the nine-member standing committee members of the politbureau. Only two members, Mr. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are confirmed, as they are all set to take over as president and prime minister of the country later next year. For the rest seven members of the standing committee, the competition is still open. It is believed that the downfall of Mr. Bo Xilai will only make the case of Wang Yang, party secretary of Guangdong province stronger.

As of now it seems that the leadership transition in China will be peaceful and will take place later this year. But what kind of governance this fifth generation of leadership will undertake and how they will keep the party intact is yet unclear.

Reference :

1. American influence in China is on unprecedented rise especially with the designation of Garry Lock as the latest Ambassador in 2011. Mr. Lock has been rated one of the most travelled ambassador in China and has been able to maintained direct contact with individuals in the country. His forefathers were migrated from China 100 years ago and now he is trying to connect his family friends and relatives in order to leverage his influence in the domestic society. But the disappointment came to his fans when Mr. Wang Lijun, the deputy mayor of Chongqing city was denied political asylum when he spend the whole day in the American consulate located in the city of Chengdu.

Chinese Chequers

Vice Admiral (retd) Barry Barathan
Distinguished Fellow, VIF

“ Shi lang, the latest addition to the PLA Navy has triggered speculation, concern, and some anxiety about what next by China as America the lone super power and the supposed to be guardian of the Free World seems to crawl into a fetal position into an embryo of self inflicted economic woes. History teaches those who want to learn and hence it may be worth our while to seek to look at China first and then its Navy next”

Historical Realities

China is an ancient civilization with a history of an occupation by Japan and, also subjugation by the English. China is also fairly insular despite various dynastic divisions and sectarian influences. Its memory is long and never fleeting. Sun Tzu’s has been the guiding light of the Chinese leadership.

“Be extremely subtle to the point of being formless. Be extremely mysterious to the point of being soundless. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate” -Sun Tzu

English Penetration of China

The first opium war of 1839 saw the subjugation of China in being forced to award concessions to Great Britain. Hong Kong was ceded, with ports of Shanghai and Ghuangzou opened up to trade. The second Opium war in 1858 also resulted in Chinese defeat. More ports were opened up along with rights for foreigners to travel into interior China. To date the Chinese remember this with a quiet but intense outrage.

Japanese Occupation

The rape of Nanking, Japanese occupation of China in early 20th century during the Second World War, was perhaps the darkest period in East Asian history. The Chinese claim to have lost around 25 million people in this conflict. It is replete with stories of unimaginable atrocities by the occupying Japanese military. China is still quietly licking its wounds.

Communist China –Emerging Definiteness

October 1949 is the watershed for the Chinese with the advent of Communism. Whatever happened or did not happen, an emerging definiteness became the start point of Chinese rise in the 20th century. In six decades the Middle kingdom has arrived on the International arena. Its leadership is consistent with a constancy of purpose. Mostly phlegmatic in style, the Chinese polity has osmotic ally optimized its position in the World’s stage. The World may not like its posturing or its new wealth but can no longer discount its positioning! Therein remains the denouement of the red dragon.

The Middle Kingdom Response

When the communists took power, the official name for China has been “ZHONGHNA RENMIN GONGHEGUO” (Middle Glorious People’s Republican Country or in English; the People’s Republic of China). It believes itself and in its destiny with a resolve never to allow history to repeat the aberration of occupation in its land that was after all between “Heaven and Earth”

The World did not take any serious notice; The West flush with success in World War II was pre occupied with the Soviet and Warsaw pact. Post collapse of the Soviet Union, the war on terrorism kept it on its toes. The East on an economic high, though conscious of China, was confident that the West would guard its backwaters. It also believed that a backward China would not pose any immediate threat. The South led by India and Nehru felt that Panchsheel was the answer to Asia. The sixties changed all that with the PRC carving out an independent path for itself away from the Soviet style of communism and economic strategy. The brief Indo-China 1962 conflict changed the statics of South Asia. India and Russia on one side with China Pakistan aligned against them. The admittance of China in the UN Security Council, its military nuclear stature, growing global economic clout and de-recognition of Taiwan were all part of a well directed, and orchestrated Chinese strategy. China for now, seems well suited to its oligarchic leadership style of combining, osmosis of patient effort and optimizing opportunity across the span of International Relationships. Its maritime strategy is embedded within this approach. It believes its sovereign security lies in the Oceans of the World.

Even a cursory analysis of the Middle kingdom’s performance today highlights continuity and constancy in:

A National Commitment to Stability

Its commitment to internal stability even by use of force, wherever and whenever necessary, is remarkable. China’s leadership places the highest priority on stability post the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution of the 1970’s. It internally uses an iron hand with an iron gauntlet.

Sustained Strategy

China has framed its macro objectives in the context of five-year plans, with clearly defined targets and policy initiatives designed to achieve targets with a high degree of accountability. It is unique, that Communist China follows liberal economic policies with flexibility. The recently enacted 12th Five-Year Plan that has shifted from the highly successful producer model of the past 30 years to a flourishing consumer society is an illustrious example.

Aligned Policies

Despite vastness of geography and immensity, all its policies are aligned with its strategy of sustaining itself in the long term

Liberal Economics

In six decades, it has displayed a strong economic dynamism with sound regulation and market reforms. Willingness to learn from within and outside is a key characteristic of its regimes openness to change.

Domestic Thrift

A domestic saving rate in excess of 50% has shielded China from external shocks. It has swelled the foreign-exchange reserves that has served China well and aided economic development. The Country now stands ready to absorb some of that surplus saving to focus on internal demand.

Domestic Servicing and Consumption

Robust plans are afoot to increase both service and consumption percentages of China with a salutary impact on its overall GDP. Rural to urban migration is also on the increase with a positive impact on accelerated infrastructural growth.

Education

China is well on its way to a, knowledge- and industry based economy. English, mathematics, sciences, computer learning and history are part of Chinese schools and colleges. Literacy rates are growing rapidly. Chinese universities now graduate more than 1.5 million engineers and scientists annually. The country regularly sends its PLA officer in the guise of students to America, the West, Europe and Russia. Interestingly, more PLA officers know Hindi than what India realizes.

Foreign Direct Investment

PRC attracts FDI. In 2010 the foreign direct investment in China was estimated to be around 106 billion US dollars and rising. In stark comparison India’s FDI is about 4.5 billion dollars. This Huge FDI is the catalyst to its accelerated growth.

Innovation and Cloning

China innovates and clones unmindful of IPR violations. China is fourth and rising in terms of international patent applications. Its research-and-development share of GDP is projected to be 2.5 % by 2015, twice of what was in 2002. It is focusing on innovation-based “strategic emerging industries” – energy conservation, new-generation information technology, biotechnology, high-end equipment manufacturing, renewable energy, alternative materials, and autos running on alternative fuels. Its consciousness resource management strategy is equally sound as evident in its R&D investment.

An Evolving Military Strategy

“China is a riddle, wrapped in an enigma and encircled, (as the Internet gurus inform us) by The Great Firewall of China” Joel Bowman

This is integral in China’s mind set and its continuum of comprehensive National Power. It encompasses a maritime vision in both the short and long term. The Chinese understanding of short, being around 30/40 years and long about 100 years. Embedded in this is a resolve never to be occupied as happened twice in their long history. Its increasing Global reach is complimentary to this idea.

It is subtly adopting a strategy of influence and hold through, arms transfer, military assistance, and aid in direct defiance of American Global interests. It knows that its trade surplus with the latter provides it a position of strength and power to play then game and guard its interests.

A grand master in International relationships the red dragon skillfully uses its ancient cultural instinct, its potent economic strength, it’s rising military potential, nuclear weapons capability to let the World know that the China can no longer be taken lightly less alone ignored.

(Next article in series on China’s maritime strategy)

The Lessons Of State Elections, 2012

Dr. M.N. Buch

Visiting Fellow, VIF

The Election Commission has successfully conducted general elections to State Assemblies in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. The results were declared on 6^th March, 2012. The Commission is to be complimented on ensuring that even in insurgency hit Manipur the elections were held under tight security in which voters felt safe to cast their votes and there was an excellent turnout of voters. Even in Uttar Pradesh, where it was feared that the elections would be violent, the Election Commission very competently saw to it that peace was maintained and the elections were free and fair. It had been alleged that S.Y. Qureshi, the Chief Election Commissioner, would be biased towards the Congress, but he deserves unstinting praise for the completely bias free election conducted under his directions. The results of the elections are proof of his fairness and impariality because in three States out of five, including in Uttar Pradesh, which is the most populous State, the Congress did very badly indeed. We should be proud of this officer and the Commission headed by him.

There are lessons to be learnt from this election and the first and most important is that the 2012 elections are witness to the decline of the two major parties which can be considered national. The Congress has a presence in every State, has always been considered a middle of the road party and is the party which has been in power longest at the national level. In Bihar and Uttar Pradesh the party has been virtually wiped out, which does not speak highly of its prospects in the coming elections in 2014. Similarly BJP, which has an imposing presence in many States, has fared badly except in Goa. If the second national level party, BJP, is also not to be a serious contender in the 2014 elections, we are bound to have a situation in which there is a splintered parliament and no party would have the strength to lead a stable coalition in which junior partners in the coalition cannot call the tune. A weak coalition means that policies which are in the national interest, though not necessarily in the interest of a component party, cannot be framed or implemented and the government, therefore, would never rise above a lame duck position.

In the case of BJP the party faces a major dilemma. It has a cadre, largely of the RSS, which means that it has a grass-root presence. At the same time its secular credentials are in doubt and there is a popular perception that the party has a somewhat narrow Hindutva agenda, which makes it unacceptable to large sections of people, especially in Southern and Eastern India. If the party wants to come to power at the Centre it was to widen its base in order to increase its acceptability. In order to widen the base the party must abandon a narrow Hindutva programme, but here it runs the danger of losing the RSS cadre. The party, therefore, will have to build a cadre separate from RSS in order to retain a grass-root presence, while moving its own agenda towards a more secular, centrist stance. It remains to be seen whether the party has the courage to take these hard decisions.

When one reads the manifesto of BJP no clear picture emerges about the party’s vision of the India of the future, nor does it place before the people the party’s stand on overall development and sectoral development. In broad terms the party is not clear whether it wants a socialist economy, a mixed economy or an economy in which the private sector has the major role and the public sector is peripheral. There is no specific statement on infrastructure development and role of the State in this behalf, nor is there a clear statement about the education policy for the future and how the State will ensure that high quality education is available to every child in India. There is no policy about health care; the party does not state what the agriculturist can expect of it in the coming years, not the industrialist, the businessman or the worker. Margaret Thatcher, on becoming the Prime Minister of Britain, stated that she would dismantle socialism and then steadfastly in the next eleven years she went about achieving her objective. What course has BJP set itself? Only if BJP comes out with a picture of what people can expect from a BJP government in terms of development in its widest context, will people have a fair chance of deciding whether BJP has a programme which would be of benefit to India and, therefore, they can vote it to power.

The problem with the Congress is not one of acceptability but is the more existentialist question of whether there is such a thing as the Congress party. One senior Congress leader told me that anyone who thinks that there is a Congress party is a fool and that it is the private fiefdom of the Nehru-Gandhi family, to which all Congressmen owe their existence and to whom they have to swear loyalty. This became amply clear in the recent Uttar Pradesh elections. The Congress put all its eggs in the Gandhi family basket. Rahul Gandhi was the star performer who, under suitable tutelage, ran the election campaign in the field, with his sister putting in a star guest appearance and his ailing mother providing support from the sidelines.

What did Rahul Gandhi offer? A circus that might have had some relevance about forty years ago but which is totally obsolete in the India of today. Therefore, the star performer spent time in a Dalit household in which he kept a two-day stubble on his chin. He went on stage, made meaningless speeches, resorted to dramatics and publicly tore a manifesto of the Samajwadi Party which paper, however, was not the manifesto but just a miscellaneous bunch of papers of no consequence. He went to constituencies that had a sizable Muslim presence and there he sported a beard so that in looks he could appear to be Muslim. The Muslims were promised reservation in jobs, an enquiry into the Batala House encounter and many empty promises to protect the Muslims. The agenda was obviously communal because nothing positive was mentioned about Muslim education, emancipation of Muslim women, a development agenda based on job creation rather than just reservations, economic uplift and improvement of the Muslim social structure. What Rahul Gandhi offered would probably have worked four decades ago when the Muslims voted en masse. It did not work in 2012. Personal security, notwithstanding aberrations, including Bombay in 1993 and Gujarat in 2002, is now taken as a right by Muslims. The Muslims are aware of their backwardness, but they have done introspection and are prepared to accept that it is their low level of education which is a major factor in keeping them backward. The average Muslim wants access to education, vocational training for children which can make them employable, creation of job opportunities through economic development and equal opportunities in employment coupled with affirmative action. Reservation is the least of the Muslim priorities. On none of these issues did Rahul Gandhi or the Congress make any significant contribution, which has caused the Muslims to turn away from the Congress.

The communal card no longer holds validity in today’s India. Nitish Kumar realised this and his entire election campaign was based on a development agenda. That is why his BJP partners were able to get Muslim votes in Bihar. In Gujarat Narendra Modi never speaks of the Muslims and 2002 notwithstanding, the development momentum which has been unleashed in Gujarat has also improved economic opportunities for the Muslims, benefitted them in improving their economic status and, therefore, has brought about a better law and order environment in the State. Therefore, in local body elections a number of Muslim candidates preferred the BJP and were successful in the elections. This point is made not as an apology for Narendra Modi, but rather as a pointer to what the Muslim needs. No Indian Muslim wants separation from India nor would he like to migrate to Pakistan. Every Indian Muslim accepts India as his own country. This has buried the ghost of 1947 and political parties should not try to revive it. The Muslim wants education for his children, safety for himself, honour and dignity for his women folk and job opportunities and a business environment in which the Muslim can prosper. The party which gives him this, which is exactly what every other community wants, will win the next election. Rahul Gandhi’s 2012 agenda promises none of these and does not bode well for the party.

The Congress, like BJP, has not placed before the people any worthwhile agenda of governance which could enable the people to decide whether the Congress is the right party to be voted to power. At least Indira Gandhi gave such slogans as “gareebi hataao”. Sonia Gandhi’s Congress does not even give this sort of a slogan. How can a party which has no worthwhile economic agenda to offer, but is dependent almost entirely on caste and an effort to woo voters on account of religion call itself a national party and hope that the people of twenty-first century India will vote it to power?

The entire planning process set in motion by Jawaharlal Nehru with the first Five-Year Plan was as much an economic statement as a political one. The Plan, with its priorities, was and is a government document, but because it is approved by a government whose composition has to be political, it is also a statement of the ruling party’s ideology and programmes. That was perhaps true for the five initial Plans. Thereafter the planning process has become bureaucratic rather than reflective of the wider thinking of government and the means of converting this thinking into a concrete plan of action. Unless the Congress Party once again begins to take the people of India into confidence about where they want lead India to, the party can neither aspire for national power, nor deserve it.

The growth of regional parties is a repeat of what happened after the emergency and the defeat of Indira Gandhi in 1977. In the last two decades of the twentieth century one saw signs of reemergence of national parties, including the Left Front. 2012 has reversed this trend and the regional parties are becoming powerful. As I have already stated, this is not a promising sign.

The government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the two governments presided over by Dr. Manmohan Singh have had to face the same dilemma, generally speaking from the same opposition parties, which were or are in coalition with the party in power, that is, the most outrageous demands from coalition partners and the continuous threat of withdrawal of support, which would cause the government to collapse. In turn this has led to the dominant partners of the coalition continually striving to retain power and, for that purpose, to make totally unacceptable concessions to the alliance partners.

Let us take the current scenario. The scheme of the Constitution is federal, with strong centripetal forces. The Constitution gives the States certain independent powers and also prescribes the relationship between the state governments and the federal government. As per List 1 and 2 of the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution, the exclusive powers of the Union and the States are prescribed. If federalism demands that the Central Government should not dabble in state affairs, it also demands that the States should not intrude into areas where the Central Government has the constitutional authority. For example, foreign relations and international treaties are exclusively within the domain of the Centre as per Entries 10 and 14 of List 1 of the Seventh Schedule. Similarly, as per Item 221 List 1 of the Seventh Schedule Railways are within the exclusive jurisdiction of the Centre. No State Government has the right to interfere in these matters or to force the Central Government to adopt a particular policy dictated by the State. The Prime Minister wanted to make certain concessions to Bangladesh, of which a treaty on the sharing of the waters of Teesta River was one of the components. It is legitimate for the Chief Minister of West Bengal to put forward the case of the State regarding the consequences of the Teesta water treaty, but it is neither legitimate for her to block the treaty or for the Prime Minister to surrender to the demands of a Chief Minister. A treaty with a neighbouring country which benefits both is more important than the rights of a riparian State in India. Unfortunately the equation within Parliament which has made Mamata Banerjee’s party a key factor in supporting government seems to have outweighed the considerations of an amicable relationship with Bangladesh. The Central Government should have consulted the West Bengal Government, but for the West Bengal Government to have blocked an international treaty which had larger ramification than those within West Bengal alone is itself a breach of the federal principle. This has been possible only because the electorate has given to India a hung parliament in which compromise has replaced principled policy as a means of government.

The latest fiasco over the railway budget explains the danger of the growth of regionalism at the cost of national parties. The railway budget is required to be drawn up by the Union Minister of Railways who, together with his cabinet colleague, is responsible to the House of the People under Article 75(3) of the Constitution. He is not responsible to the chief of the political party to which he belongs and which is a coalition partner. For Mamata to insist that the Railway Minister should resign or be dismissed because of the provisions of the railway budget, of which she did not approve, is a clear violation of federal principle because here it is the Prime Minister and Parliament to whom the Minister is accountable, not Mamata Banerjee. Similarly, for a coalition partner to demand that a particular portfolio should be in the exclusive domain of that party goes against every principle of democratic government. This all the more dangerous because one hears bazaar gossip that the price that the Samajwadi Pary is demanding for its support of the Central Government is that the Defence Ministry be given to Mulayam Singh Yadav. At a time when the Defence Ministry is engaged in the most delicate negotiations for acquisition of weapons and weapon system worth lakh of crores of rupees the Minister should not be changed, especially because Mr. A.K. Anthony has a reputation for total personal integrity. If to save its own skin the Congress party succumbs to these demands, then the party has no right to rule this country. That is one of the major lessons which have emerged from the state elections of 2012.

First and foremost the Prime Minister should have the courage to tell his coalition partners that not only they, but all parties and all State Governments would be consulted in matters of national interest but also that the ultimate decision would be that of Central Government and that would be binding. He must make it clear to the coalition partners that once a decision is taken by the cabinet it applies to everyone, even to those cabinet ministers who come from allied parties and not from the Congress Party. He must also make it clear that beyond a point the coalition partners will not be allowed to dictate terms and if this causes the government to fall fresh elections would be held. Whatever is in the national interest should be done, including a massive effort by the two major parties to ensure that in the next elections the importance of the regional parties is reduced and the major parties get a clear run to bring proper government to India. 

Diplomatic Dilemma: India and UNHRC Resolution against Sri Lanka

Dr. N. Manoharan

Senior Fellow, VIF

The ghosts of war continue to haunt Sri Lanka in one form or the other. Now it has come as US-sponsored resolution at the 19^th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council. The resolution is also backed by France and Norway that once acted as ‘facilitators’ in the peace process between the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE. Moved on 06 March 2012, the resolution placed three requests for Sri Lanka:

1. To “implement the constructive recommendations made in the report of the Lessons Learnt Reconciliation Commission” (LLRC) and to “initiate credible and independent actions to ensure justice, equity, accountability and reconciliation for all Sri Lankans.”
2. To “present a comprehensive action plan as expeditiously as possible detailing the steps the Government has taken and will take to implement the LLRC recommendations and also to address alleged violations of international law.”
3. To “accept, advice and technical assistance from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and relevant special procedures mandate holders on implementing the above-mentioned steps, and requests the Office of the High Commissioner to present a report on the provision of such assistance to the Human Rights Council at its 22nd session”

There are two aspects to the entire debate: one is fixing accountability for excesses committed by the Sri Lankan forces during ‘Eelam War IV’; and the other is the way forward in the form of post-war reconciliation in the island.

Colombo is uncomfortable with both. The Sri Lankan government argues that the problems should be dealt with internally and any solution has to be “home grown”. It cites steps taken so far in this regard. On accountability the Army has appointed a Court of Inquiry as an initial fact-finding mission. For reconciliation the President-appointed LLRC has already submitted its report late last year and the government is in the process of implementing its recommendations. To Colombo, any UN action “would only lead to derailing the ongoing reconciliation process that has been put in place by the government.” Some in the regime go to the extent of arguing that “If we submit to this resolution, Tiger terrorists will raise their head again.”

But the underlying point made by the sponsors of the resolution is that the objective behind the move at UNHRC is not to condemn Sri Lanka but to “sow the seeds of lasting peace.” It is pointed out that the “real reconciliation must be based on accountability, not impunity.” The Court of Inquiry appointed by the Army is considered “too late and too little”. Since it is not independent, its findings may not be impartial. The LLRC contained both positive and negative aspects. On positives, it talked about the need for demilitarisation, investigation of disappearances, apart from acknowledging existence of ethnic grievances; surprisingly, it supported devolution of powers to minorities, although did not spell them out. At the same time, it did not fix accountability for human rights abuses during Eelam War IV. For the collateral damage, the report reasoned it out as a result of LTTE action and military reaction. Most importantly, the LLRC did not give any action plan on the way forward either on reconciliation or devolution. It is only after the introduction of resolution in Geneva on 27 February that talks of roadmap have commenced. Sri Lanka seems to be bit more sensitive to external pressures than to the internal ones.

Given these factors, India’s role is important. In a similar situation in May 2009, India, along with China, Pakistan, and Russia, bailed Sri Lanka out from a Western-sponsored resolution at UNHRC. But what should India do now? Should it support the resolution as demanded by all parliamentarians from Tamil Nadu, or should it oppose the resolution keeping in mind the interest of bilateral ties with Sri Lanka? India’s dilemma is evident when the External Affairs Minister SM Krishna said, “Certainly we will take into account the overall relationship between India and Sri Lanka and the sentiments that are prevalent in our country.” However, in a letter to the present and ex-chief ministers of Tamil Nadu, from where pressure on the Center is increasing to act on the issue, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sounded less dilemmatic: “We are engaged with all parties in an effort to achieve an outcome that is forward-looking and that ensures that rather than deepening confrontation and mistrust between the concerned parties, a way forward is found on issues related to accountability and reconciliation,"

This is the key. Neither ‘for’ nor ‘against’ the resolution is an ideal way out for the problem. New Delhi has to think out of the box at this juncture. Two options can be explored. One is to act as a ‘mediator’ between the sponsors and the state concerned – Sri Lanka – to rework on the Resolution and make it as a consensus document. For this, two aspects of the resolution – accountability and reconciliation – have to be dissected. The accountability component can be taken-off from the resolution completely and can be addressed separately. Colombo should be persuaded to clear the air on excesses committed by its forces. It could be through a non-partial investigation involving combination of local and international experts. Sri Lankans have to be involved in the exercise to gain acceptability in the country; outsiders have to be included for credibility at the international level.

On reconciliation, Colombo should be made to realise that military defeat of the LTTE was not the end in itself; only a political settlement that addresses grievances of minority communities can lead to lasting peace in the island. Unfortunately, this seems to be not on the priority list of Rajapaksa regime. In a recent interview, President Mahinda Rajapaksa outlined his thoughts on political settlement succinctly when he said, “We are keen on a sustainable political settlement. But it must have wide acceptance, especially in the context of the post-conflict situation.” When this pronouncement is taken seriously, writing on the wall is clear. At the maximum, what is on cards is some arrangement revolving around the existing 13^th amendment. Through 13^th Amendment, the island was divided into various provinces and granted some powers under Provincial List. However, the Provincial Councils always lacked sufficient powers – especially land, police and finance – to run their affairs in an efficient manner. In addition, Colombo wields immense powers of overruling any of Provincial decisions. Instead of strengthening the Provinces, the present government is planning to dilute the present arrangement further. Unless there is genuine power sharing, the Provincial Council arrangement will be mere eyewash. The best option is to go beyond 13^th amendment framework as always insisted by India.

While this will take time to work out, Colombo should meanwhile seriously implement recommendations of the LLRC. There is nothing wrong in presenting an action plan on this to the UNHRC. In that case, the US should be persuaded to take this action plan as the final resolution and passed as a consensual document. The West also should understand Colombo’s constraints and compulsions.

In case Sri Lanka refuses to make international commitment on reconciliation; in case Washington insists on going ahead with the present resolution without any amendments, the second best option for India is to abstain from voting. It would convey a clear-cut message to Colombo: “Our friendship is very important, but that thrives on making commitments and, most importantly, seriously implementing them.” And, to the West, the signal would be “your resolutions will remain mere paper tigers as long as they are away from the reality.”

Balochistan on The Boil, Pakistan in Denial

Sushant Sareen

Senior Fellow, VIF

The insurgency mounted by Baloch freedom fighters has been variously described as ‘Pakistan’s Other War’, ‘The Silent War’, ‘The Dirty War’ etc. by the international media. One of the main reasons why this ‘war’ has until now not made the front pages of newspapers is the conspiracy of silence hatched, dictated and enforced by the ‘deep state’ which had muzzled Pakistan’s ‘independent’ media from any detailed reportage about the turmoil in Pakistan’s largest and poorest province – Balochistan. Let alone foreign journalists, even Pakistani media personnel are not allowed free access to most parts of Balochistan which have become virtual ‘no-go’ areas. Local journalists are intimidated – around half a dozen have been killed and many more have gone into exile – and forbidden from any bold reporting. Big media houses follow an undeclared policy of not covering the inconvenient reality of Balochistan in any great detail. But even the sketchy reports of incidents of violence and unrest – targeted killings, ambushes of security personnel, ‘missing persons’ and the discovery of their mutilated bodies, the daily humiliated visited on the ordinary Baloch who is insulted by being forced to shout slogans in favour of Pakistan, the fleeting references to the ban imposed by Baloch freedom fighters on raising the Pakistani flag or singing the Pakistani national anthem anywhere in the province etc. – are enough to inform about the great tumult that is building up in the province.

It took a maverick US Congressman, Dana Rohrabacher, to bring Balochistan on to the centre-stage of Pakistan's political discourse. The Congressional hearing organised by Rohrabacher, followed by the resolution moved by him in the US Congress calling for the right to self-determination in Balochistan shook and shocked the Pakistani establishment – military, media, politicians and judiciary, all together – out of their callous reverie about Balochistan. Suddenly, Balochistan became the flavour of the season and saturation coverage was given to the dismal state of affairs in the province. Parallels were drawn with the follies committed by the Pakistani state in the erstwhile East Pakistan, doomsday scenarios were floated, conspiracy theories were conjured up and verbal self-flagellation about the sins of omission and commission committed by the Pakistani state, particularly the security establishment (Army, FC, intelligence agencies and their jihadist proxies) became the order of the day for over two weeks.

Then, just as suddenly as Balochistan erupted on air waves and newsprint as a panic word, it disappeared. This was partly the result of the cracking of the whip by the ‘deep state’ and a muzzle order issued by the media regulator, and partly it was the result of a realisation that the heavens were still some distance away from falling down and all was still not lost in the province. Notwithstanding the degree of equanimity that has come into the public discourse on Balochistan, it is quite clear that Pakistan is at its wits end on how to address the sweeping anti-Pakistan and pro-independence sentiment in Balochistan. Other than resorting to Gestapo-like tactics to bludgeon the freedom seeking Baloch into submission, the Pakistani establishment is pretty clueless on what it can do to woo the Baloch and end their alienation and disaffection with Pakistan. Until now, Pakistan has been following a 3 C’s policy: (1)coercion (illegal confinement and targeted killings by death squads run by the Pakistani intelligence agencies and paramilitary forces like the Frontier Corps), (2)corruption (buying off support of the local politicians and every Pakistani party recruiting their own set of Quislings, collaborators and what Baloch freedom fighters call ‘Sarkari’ Baloch like the Lt. Gen. (retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch, Chief Minister Aslam Raisani, Sardar Sanaullah Zehri etc.), and (3) cajoling and cooption (grandiose gestures like the Aaghaz-e-Huqooq-e-Balochistan package of economic initiatives and political reforms, cosmetic gestures like making the port city Gwadar second capital, increasing recruitment of Baloch into army and paramilitary forces, some development work, and tons of propaganda) – to woo the Baloch or at least sow divisions in their ranks. But there is little by way of success that this policy has achieved.

Another tack adopted by the Pakistani establishment was to use the ‘embedded’ media to churn out a counter narrative which was a combination of an Ostrich-like approach to the problem and a deliberate attempt to play down the severity of the issue. According to this narrative, the problem in Balochistan was only of three out of around seventy odd Sardars – Bugti, Mengal and Marri – and was limited to around four to five districts, including Dera Bugti, Kohlu, Khuzdar and Turbat. But the incongruity of this narrative is borne out by the sheer mismatch between the scale of the insurgency and panic in Islamabad. After all, if the problem in Balochistan was so small, then why was so much newsprint and airtime expended on discussing the problem? Perhaps the answer to this lies in what Sardar Akhtar Mengal called a panic created by the fact that the ‘overlord’ (read US) had suddenly taken notice of the rampant and brazen violation of human rights in Balochistan by the ‘underling’ (read Pakistani establishment)! The Pakistani spin about the fringe nature of insurgency has also been blunted by the gauntlet thrown by the leaders of the Baloch freedom movement who have challenged Pakistan to test the popularity of the demand for independence by holding a referendum under international supervision to ascertain whether the Baloch wanted to stay in Pakistan or wanted their freedom.

A clumsy effort was also made to sow ethnic and linguistic divisions by pitting the Baloch against the Pashtuns and the Balochi speaking against the Brahvi speaking people, but it did not receive much traction because the protagonists of Baloch independence have made it very clear that they hold no claim over Pashtun lands – North Balochistan – and are not demanding independence for Balochistan province but for only the Baloch areas of the province along with Baloch areas of Punjab and Sindh. The Pakistani ‘deep state’ and its clients in the media and political establishment also tried to discredit the Baloch freedom movement by coming up with conspiracy theories and launching a propaganda campaign about how an international conspiracy masterminded by the perfidious Americans and fully supported by the Israelis and Indians was being hatched to dismember Pakistan.

Far from being fazed by this canard, leaders of the Baloch freedom movement openly welcomed any assistance that would come their way regardless of where it came from. One of the icons of the Baloch freedom movement, Brahmdagh Bugti, even said that they would accept the assistance from Satan himself to rid themselves of the yoke of Pakistan. Indeed, many of the Baloch activists are hoping that the propaganda about foreign assistance becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, something that cannot be ruled out if the Pakistani paranoia gets a life of its own and ultimately forces the international community to intervene to prevent the atrocities being committed against the Baloch. In a sense, the seriousness of the situation in Balochistan can be gauged by the fact that until now there has been practically no assistance given by any foreign power to the Baloch, something that the Pakistan military and intelligence establishment know very well. What is scaring them is how much the situation can actually deteriorate if some foreign power did start providing 'diplomatic, political and moral support'.

The attempt to push things under the carpet, deflect attention from the real issue, and downplay the unrest and alienation in Balochistan doesn’t mean that things are looking up for Pakistan and that they are not as bad as was being projected. In fact, the situation is probably a lot worse and could deteriorate further, both because the Baloch freedom fighters are already feeling enthused by their cause coming on to the radar screen of the international community and also because the Pakistani crackdown is likely to get a lot more brutal, albeit after a bit of a lull to let things cool down. In the meantime, the Pakistani political establishment has pretended to reach out to the disgruntled Baloch leaders by announcing a withdrawal of cases against them and declaring an intention to hold a sincere and serious dialogue with the Baloch leadership to address their grievances. But instead of placating the Baloch, the withdrawal of cases has been greeted with derision. As for a dialogue, the Baloch leaders have declared that they will be willing to talk to the Pakistani establishment only if the talks are centred on discussing Balochistan’s independence.

The Baloch leaders – both pro-independence and pro-federation – have also rejected the All Parties Conference proposed by Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani. While the Baloch have labelled the APC as a pointless exercise, even mainstream political parties in Pakistan, in particular the main opposition party PMLN, have dismissed the APC proposal. In fact, the PMLN has attached almost impossible to meet pre-conditions – arresting and trying the murderers of Nawab Akbar Bugti (read former military dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf), recovering and releasing all ‘missing persons’ (believed to have been picked up by the security agencies), and brining to justice all officials involved in extra-judicial killings. Actually, the PMLN is more interested in grinding its own political axe rather than seriously address the Balochistan issue. Given such an attitude and approach, it is no surprise that the APC is a stillborn proposal in which no one is interested, certainly not the ruling PPP which is chary of doing anything that ruffles the feathers of the military establishment.

Time however could be running out for the Pakistani state in Balochistan. Things have reached such a pass that pro-federation politicians who act as toadies of the government are finding it difficult to defend, much less justify, the actions of the Pakistani state. In any case, the traditional political elite has been steadily losing ground to a new crop of middle-class youth leaders who cutting across tribal lines are forging a potent national movement. None other than the doyen of Baloch nationalists, Sardar Attaullah Mengal, admitted this to PMLN chief Nawaz Sharif. According to Mengal, things were no longer in the control of the old leadership as a new generation of leaders were now calling the shots. The man who is believed to have become the icon of the Baloch freedom fighters is the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) chief, Dr Allah Nazar. Others like the Balochistan Republican Party (BRP) chief, Nawabzada Brahmdagh Bugti (grandson of the slain Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti), Hyrbyair Marri (son of Nawab Khair Bux Marri), and Balochistan National Party (BNP) chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal (son of Sardar Attaullah Mengal) are also in the vanguard of the nationalist movement. But while Dr Allah Nazar is fighting against Pakistan from inside Balochistan, the other pro-independence leaders are in exile and hence their effectiveness is somewhat reduced.

At the political level, moves are afoot to bring all the pro-independence elements together and forge a united national movement. The first step in this direction has been taken with efforts underway agree on a ‘Freedom Charter’ which will serve as the vision statement of a future Balochistan state. But a lot will depend on how much support the international community gives to the Baloch. It is entirely possible that with tectonic changes taking place in the region, especially in relation to Afghanistan and Iran, the international community might discover that an independent Baloch state could well be the strategic answer to all their problems. But it is equally possible that a tired and defeated international community might recede into a shell to lick its wounds and leave the Baloch to their own devices. In case of the former, chances of an independent Balochistan which also acts as a bulwark against Islamic fanaticism and terrorism will be very bright. But in the latter case, with no help coming for the Baloch, chances are that the Baloch independence movement being smothered yet again.

How Good are The Indian Institutes of Management?

Dr. M.N. Buch
Visiting Fellow, VIF

When India became independent we embarked on a very ambitious programme of nation building aimed at converting India into a modern State whose economy would be second to none. In 1902 Lt. Gen. Sir Adrian Carton de Wiart, then a young subaltern, stated on being posted to India, “ India, from the start, held no mysterious fascination for me. It was tawdry. It emitted revolting smells and noises”. Well, Nehru decided that this would change, that India would build new temples in the form of dams and power stations, business and industry, prosperous agriculture and, to enable this to happen, we shall build great educational institutions in the field of technology, management, science, medicine, agriculture, social sciences and the humanities. The Indian Institutes of Technology, the great Agriculture Universities, the All India Institute of Medical Science, the Post Graduate Institutes of Medical Education and Research, the Institute of Economic Growth, Jawaharlal Nehru University, the Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research, the Schools of Planning and Architecture and the Indian Institutes of Management are all milestones in our journey of quality higher education. Leading the pack was the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad.

The great business houses in India at the time of independence were, by and large, family run businesses , with the exception of the House of Tata, which had encouraged professionalism in corporate management from the beginning. The Birlas, Singhanias, Mafatlals, Sarabhais, Goenkas, Modi and other Marwari business houses, employed managers for running individual units, but corporate decision making even at micro level was very much a family affair, focused on the patriarch. This worked quite well at a certain scale and in trading, but when the pace of industrialisation gathered speed, the inherent flaws of personalised management began to emerge. What the system cried out for was a new model of corporate decision making and professional management. A complex economic structure has far too many variables, far too many interconnected dependencies which impact each other, for decision making to be totally centralised or left dependent on the whims of a patriarch whose own business experiences and instincts might be anchored in a much simpler past. The genesis of IIM (A) was a realisation by both government and business that a new model of business management must be evolved and a new cadre of professional managers, educated in a dedicated management institute, should be created. From this emerged IIM (A) and the other I.Is.M that have since been set up, thirteen in all at present in the public domain. From this seed have grown renowned institutes in the private sector, including the Narsee Monjee University, S.P. Jain Institute of Management, the India School of Business and XLRI.

The Memorandum of Association (MoA) of IIM, Indore, very similar to that of other IIsM, lays down in the following words the major objectives of the Institute, “To provide training and conduct research in the broad area of management and administration as relevant to the Indian context”. The key words here are “training” , “research” and “Indian context”. One other objective is, “To select and prepare outstanding and talented matured young persons for careers leading to management responsibilities”. It is on the basis of how these objectives have been achieved that one has to judge the success or failure of the I.Is.M. Are they fulfilling the very goals they set themselves when they were constituted? What is the quality of the research, if any, that they are conducting? Is their training and research truly in the Indian context, or are the institutes only trying to become clones of great American business schools such as Harvard, Kellog and Stanford? Or is training some of India’s best students for careers in business now the major objective? In other words, is placement and a lucrative pay package the hallmark of success, or is building new business models which could take us to new heights the benchmark by which we should judge the I.Is.M?

Before one judges one must study the structure of the I.Is.M. All thirteen are in the public domain and they have been created by an executive policy decision of government. The land for each is generously given free of charge by the State Governments of the States in which they are located. For example, IIM Indore has been given 193 acres of prime land at Indore. The entire physical infrastructure has been funded and built by government and any expansion on account of government policy, for example additional enrolment to accommodate OBC quota., is exchequer funded. This is true of even IIM Ahmedabad and IIM Bangalore, which claim that they have enough funds to manage on their own and want zero intervention by government even on key policy issues. Given their way they would like to declare U.D.I (Unilateral Declaration of Independence) a`la Ian Smith, then Premier of Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), who thought he could prevent black majority rule in the colony after independence by anticipating the event, breaking away from Britain and establishing an apartheid based white minority government and state. Fortunately Britain forcefully intervened and aborted U.D.I, but Ian Smith’s legacy is a deep rooted distrust of the white minority and has resulted in the distasteful doctorial regime of Robert Mugabe. Can the country tolerate U.D.I. by I.Is.M?

The Ahmedabad/Bangalore led cry for autonomy has certain inbuilt defects and dangers which, in the end, may defeat the very purpose for which they were established. An autonomy built on a high fee structure is bound to make money a key determinant which could influence the entire educational programme, with career overshadowing training, research and the Indian context.

This point will be returned to a little later. At present we should examine the question of autonomy. There are allegations that government is inimical to autonomy. This is a complete myth. I.I.M. Ahmedabad led the cry of autonomy in danger because Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi, as H.R.D. Minister, wanted the I.Is. M to keep their fee structure at modest levels. He also offered a cast iron guarantee of government funding to meet all their needs. At least in the I.Is.T and I.Is.M he never tried to superimpose a syllabus, much less a saffron one and despite the delusions of megalomania of one of his officers, V.S. Pandey, the academic freedom of these institutions remained untouched.

The present HRD Minister, Mr. Kapil Sibal, is committed to academic autonomy and has very readily agreed to changes in the MoA of the I.Is.M, as drafted by them. One result is that the Boards of these institutes have constituted themselves into the principal executive body of the institute, to prescribe the course of studies (in I.Is.T, I.Is.I.T and normal universities this is done by the Senate or Academic Council of faculty and experts), to maintain discipline amongst students, etc., The Director only enjoys delegated powers and, under the Board, is required to ensure proper administration of the institute. By way of contrast the Board of Governors of an Indian Institute of Technology and the Indian Institutes of Information Technology is “… responsible for the general superintendence, direction and control of the affairs of the Institute…” and “… take decision on questions of policy relating to the administration and working of the Institute”. About the Director the provisions are “The Director shall be the principal academic and executive officer of the Institute and shall be responsible for the proper administration of the Institute and for the imparting of instruction and maintenance of discipline therein”.

The I.I.T. or I.I.I.T. Board exercises superintendence, and frames policy, the Director administers policy, directs learning and teaching and ensures the discipline of faculty, staff and students. The functional division is clear and unambiguous, leading to harmony.

The I.I.M Boards feel they exercise executive functions and that the Director is on sufferance. In I.I.M. Ahmedabad the then Chairman, Mr. Singhania and the then Director, Dr. Bakul Dholakia were at loggerheads because the Chairman asserted supremacy even in micro management and this did disrupt the even tenor of the Institute. Ravi Mathai, the first Director of I.I.M. (A) treated the Board only as an unavoidable evil, to be marginalised as far as is possible. However, he was uncomfortable with codification of rules, which has led to the present position where the bounds of the powers of the Chairman and the Board and the Director, are not clearly defined and clashes occur in the grey areas.

In I.I.M. Indore this has resulted in the Chairman wanting to treat the Director as a Munim who carries out every order and whim of the owner of the firm. The power of the Chairman to nominate six members to the Board has led to cronyism. There is not a single industrialist of note or head of a large business house on the Board, Mr. Subhodh Bhargava and Mr. Kishore Biyani having quit in disgust. The Institute is now a cesspit of intrigue, with some individual Members of the Board trying to attack the Director directly, instigating indiscipline amongst faculty and engineering joint complaints against the Director. Instead of crushing such insubordination and pulling up Board members for their misconduct, the Chairman is indirectly encouraging one or two members to step up their offensive. Governance has come to an end in I.I.M. Indore and this will both immediately and in the future harm the institute. We urgently need to redefine the respective roles of the Chairman, the Board and the Director of I.Is.M, preferably in the same manner as I.Is.T. and I.Is.I.T so that all ambiguity is removed. Autonomy cannot be an excuse for the Chairman filling the Board with cronies and mediocre people, marginalising the Director and taking over micro-management of the institute in his own hands. In order to check this government must retain a veto, or the power to issue directions which will be binding on all the authorities of the institute if the situation so demands.

This brings us back to the question of fees and the effect it is having on the academic orientation of I.Is.M. For instance, I.I.M. Ahmedabad charges rupees seventeen and a half lakh per MBA course. Other I.Is.M also have a commensurate fee structure, but mutatis mutandis, given the age and reputation of the institute, location, etc. Even the most economic of the I.Is.M, e.g. I.I.M. Indore, is priced out of the reach of even the relatively more well-to-do middle class and is not even in the dreams of those with a lower income. The I.Is.M argue that education loans are available and the Institutes facilitate the process. Even if this were true do the institutes realise what it means to an ordinary family to be burdened with a large loan? The student is under enormous pressure to find a well placed job with a very high salary package so that he can repay the loan. His attention, then, is narrowly centered on increasing his employability rather than acquiring knowledge. Certainly he has little time for research, nor any desire for post graduate or doctoral studies. For the institute also it is the P and PP which counts, that is placement and pay package. Therefore, the cream of the Indian students is sucked into the system, polished up and groomed to become a superior employable product and ejected into the market. This is a soul destroying exercise, kills all research initiative, makes faculty into a shop floor worker who churns out a saleable product rather than a human being with knowledge and provides ample time for intrigue against the Director. Because the fee structure of I.Is.T and I.Is.I.T. is relatively modest the imperative to acquire a job immediately after graduation is not as pronounced as in I.Is.M and there is a better research environment and orientation. Those who are required to train the persons who will manage business must ponder over the points raisd above because it is not simply a management question but is also a serious existential question.

The reality of the Indian economy is that the informal sector employs about eighty-five percent of the entire workforce, the organised sector employs about ten percent and the balance is marginalised or unemployed. With GDP growth of about eight percent, employment is growing at, or is stagnant at, 0.3 percent. Where is the extra money going? Certainly not into job creation. The informal sector has the largest share of employment, but it has low per capita productivity, low wages and inefficiency in production, capital investment, design and marketing. The organised sector has a better capital- output ratio but its employment potential is low. Can we not change the equations and synergise and coordinate the formal and informal sectors so that the productivity of the informal sector and the employment potential of the formal sector both dramatically improve? Can our I.Is.M not take up a major research programme and develop a new paradigm management, working capital, design for production efficiency as also organisation of both production and marketing of the informal sector? The American business schools cannot do this, but our I.Is.M, which are mandated to work in “the Indian context”, can and must do this. If they are unwilling or unable to do this because their P and PP model will suffer, then government must invoke clause (6) of the MoA and take over the administration and assets of the Institute. About this there should be no hesitation because the reverse of the coin of autonomy is accountability and failure to discharge it must carry consequences.

One last point. Legally the I. Is. M cannot award a degree because they do not have an university status. They are, therefore, forced to admit persons who have graduated from an institution which has university status, say I.I.T. Kanpur or ABV- I. I. I.T.M Gwalior, for a post graduate diploma in management. In order to catch them young I.I.M Indore has started a five years integrated course, as is the case with I.I.S.E.R and ABV- I. I. I.T.M, which give a dual degree after five years, B.Sc – M.Sc. in the case of an I.I.S.E.R and B.Tech. M.Tech, or B.Tech-MBA in the case of ABV- I. I. I.T.M, whose Senate has approved a third stream of B.Tech-M. Humanities, the details of which are being worked out. But because an I.I.M. cannot award a degree and no post graduate diploma or degree can be awarded without a basic Bachelor’s degree, the Indore Institute is in a fix. The simple solution to this is for the I.Is.M. to seek legal cover which would make I.Is.M institutions of national importance and give them statutory university status. It seems I.Is.M, especially Ahmedabad and Bangalore, oppose this because they say it will reduce their autonomy, but in reality because they fear it will increase their accountability. The I.Is.T. and I.Is.I.T have not had their autonomy jeopardised by legal cover. One can draft a Bill to provide adequate safeguards for autonomy. It is about time M.H.R.D stopped pussyfooting around and goes ahead with legislation. The I.Is.M will have to fall in line because they will have no option. The Bill can have a separate chapter on regulation of non I.I.M management institutions also.

Government must nurture the I.Is.M., give them autonomy short of U.D.I, but it must not pamper them to the point of their becoming spoilt brats. The taxpayers who helped build the Institutes and the citizens on whose support they prosper demand this as the least that government can do to remind the I.Is.M of the Indian context. Even otherwise the business schools the I.Is.M try and emulate – Harvard, Stanford, Kellog – are all part of an university system, operationally and academically free, but as part of a larger whole. In India they would stand alone, have operational and academic freedom and in themselves be the larger whole, because their universe would be the Institute itself. They could then have their cake and eat it too.

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Published Date : 15^th March, 2012