“ Shi lang, the latest addition to the PLA Navy has triggered
speculation, concern, and some anxiety about what next by China as
America the lone super power and the supposed to be guardian of the Free
World seems to crawl into a fetal position into an embryo of self
inflicted economic woes. History teaches those who want to learn and
hence it may be worth our while to seek to look at China first and then
its Navy next”
Historical Realities
China is an ancient civilization with a history of an occupation by
Japan and, also subjugation by the English. China is also fairly insular
despite various dynastic divisions and sectarian influences. Its memory
is long and never fleeting. Sun Tzu’s has been the guiding light of
the Chinese leadership.
“Be extremely subtle to the point of being formless. Be extremely
mysterious to the point of being soundless. Thereby you can be the
director of the opponent’s fate” -Sun Tzu
English Penetration of China
The first opium war of 1839 saw the subjugation of China in being
forced to award concessions to Great Britain. Hong Kong was ceded, with
ports of Shanghai and Ghuangzou opened up to trade. The second Opium war
in 1858 also resulted in Chinese defeat. More ports were opened up
along with rights for foreigners to travel into interior China. To date
the Chinese remember this with a quiet but intense outrage.
Japanese Occupation
The rape of Nanking, Japanese occupation of China in early 20th
century during the Second World War, was perhaps the darkest period in
East Asian history. The Chinese claim to have lost around 25 million
people in this conflict. It is replete with stories of unimaginable
atrocities by the occupying Japanese military. China is still quietly
licking its wounds.
Communist China –Emerging Definiteness
October 1949 is the watershed for the Chinese with the advent of
Communism. Whatever happened or did not happen, an emerging definiteness
became the start point of Chinese rise in the 20th century. In six
decades the Middle kingdom has arrived on the International arena. Its
leadership is consistent with a constancy of purpose. Mostly phlegmatic
in style, the Chinese polity has osmotic ally optimized its position in
the World’s stage. The World may not like its posturing or its new
wealth but can no longer discount its positioning! Therein remains the
denouement of the red dragon.
The Middle Kingdom Response
When the communists took power, the official name for China has been
“ZHONGHNA RENMIN GONGHEGUO” (Middle Glorious People’s Republican Country
or in English; the People’s Republic of China). It believes itself and
in its destiny with a resolve never to allow history to repeat the
aberration of occupation in its land that was after all between “Heaven
and Earth”
The World did not take any serious notice; The West flush with
success in World War II was pre occupied with the Soviet and Warsaw
pact. Post collapse of the Soviet Union, the war on terrorism kept it on
its toes. The East on an economic high, though conscious of China, was
confident that the West would guard its backwaters. It also believed
that a backward China would not pose any immediate threat. The South led
by India and Nehru felt that Panchsheel was the answer to Asia. The
sixties changed all that with the PRC carving out an independent path
for itself away from the Soviet style of communism and economic
strategy. The brief Indo-China 1962 conflict changed the statics of
South Asia. India and Russia on one side with China Pakistan aligned
against them. The admittance of China in the UN Security Council, its
military nuclear stature, growing global economic clout and
de-recognition of Taiwan were all part of a well directed, and
orchestrated Chinese strategy. China for now, seems well suited to its
oligarchic leadership style of combining, osmosis of patient effort and
optimizing opportunity across the span of International Relationships.
Its maritime strategy is embedded within this approach. It believes its
sovereign security lies in the Oceans of the World.
Even a cursory analysis of the Middle kingdom’s performance today highlights continuity and constancy in:
A National Commitment to Stability
Its commitment to internal stability even by use of force, wherever
and whenever necessary, is remarkable. China’s leadership places the
highest priority on stability post the turmoil of the Cultural
Revolution of the 1970’s. It internally uses an iron hand with an iron
gauntlet.
Sustained Strategy
China has framed its macro objectives in the context of five-year
plans, with clearly defined targets and policy initiatives designed to
achieve targets with a high degree of accountability. It is unique, that
Communist China follows liberal economic policies with flexibility.
The recently enacted 12th Five-Year Plan that has shifted from the
highly successful producer model of the past 30 years to a flourishing
consumer society is an illustrious example.
Aligned Policies
Despite vastness of geography and immensity, all its policies are
aligned with its strategy of sustaining itself in the long term
Liberal Economics
In six decades, it has displayed a strong economic dynamism with
sound regulation and market reforms. Willingness to learn from within
and outside is a key characteristic of its regimes openness to change.
Domestic Thrift
A domestic saving rate in excess of 50% has shielded China from
external shocks. It has swelled the foreign-exchange reserves that has
served China well and aided economic development. The Country now stands
ready to absorb some of that surplus saving to focus on internal
demand.
Domestic Servicing and Consumption
Robust plans are afoot to increase both service and consumption
percentages of China with a salutary impact on its overall GDP. Rural to
urban migration is also on the increase with a positive impact on
accelerated infrastructural growth.
Education
China is well on its way to a, knowledge- and industry based economy.
English, mathematics, sciences, computer learning and history are part
of Chinese schools and colleges. Literacy rates are growing rapidly.
Chinese universities now graduate more than 1.5 million engineers and
scientists annually. The country regularly sends its PLA officer in the
guise of students to America, the West, Europe and Russia.
Interestingly, more PLA officers know Hindi than what India realizes.
Foreign Direct Investment
PRC attracts FDI. In 2010 the foreign direct investment in China was
estimated to be around 106 billion US dollars and rising. In stark
comparison India’s FDI is about 4.5 billion dollars. This Huge FDI is
the catalyst to its accelerated growth.
Innovation and Cloning
China innovates and clones unmindful of IPR violations. China is
fourth and rising in terms of international patent applications. Its
research-and-development share of GDP is projected to be 2.5 % by 2015,
twice of what was in 2002. It is focusing on innovation-based “strategic
emerging industries” – energy conservation, new-generation information
technology, biotechnology, high-end equipment manufacturing, renewable
energy, alternative materials, and autos running on alternative fuels.
Its consciousness resource management strategy is equally sound as
evident in its R&D investment.
An Evolving Military Strategy
“China is a riddle, wrapped in an enigma and encircled, (as the
Internet gurus inform us) by The Great Firewall of China” Joel Bowman
This is integral in China’s mind set and its continuum of
comprehensive National Power. It encompasses a maritime vision in both
the short and long term. The Chinese understanding of short, being
around 30/40 years and long about 100 years. Embedded in this is a
resolve never to be occupied as happened twice in their long history.
Its increasing Global reach is complimentary to this idea.
It is subtly adopting a strategy of influence and hold through, arms
transfer, military assistance, and aid in direct defiance of American
Global interests. It knows that its trade surplus with the latter
provides it a position of strength and power to play then game and guard
its interests.
A grand master in International relationships the red dragon
skillfully uses its ancient cultural instinct, its potent economic
strength, it’s rising military potential, nuclear weapons capability to
let the World know that the China can no longer be taken lightly less
alone ignored.
(Next article in series on China’s maritime strategy)
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