Sushma Swaraj’s Bangladesh Visit: A Good Start to “Neighbours First” Policy in Dhaka

Monish Gulati

Introduction

Termed as a “goodwill visit”, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj led her first international visit to Bangladesh on 25 June accompanied by Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh and other senior officials. The visit marked the first ministerial-level contact between the new government in New Delhi and the Bangladeshi leadership. The EAM, apart from meeting her Bangladeshi counterpart, Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, also called on the Bangladeshi President Abdul Hamid and PM Sheikh Hasina. Separate interactions were held by the EAM with Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chief Khaleda Zia, former Bangladesh President Irshad’s wife Raushan Irshad and Prime Minister’s international affairs adviser Professor Gowher Rizvi. Her agenda included trade and investment, improving connectivity, better management of the borders, security, ratification of the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA), energy and people-to-people contacts. This article reviews the outcome of the visit and looks at the road ahead for the two countries as India gives shape to its “Neighbours First” policy.

The Visit

As India-Bangladesh relations in the past few years have been constrained by issues that have proved a test for the Centre- State relations, it was not therefore surprising that the EAM ahead of her two-day visit to Bangladesh, had a publicised talk with the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The state of West Bengal has a position on the two main issues that were on the EAM’s agenda; sharing of Teesta river water and the LBA. This was a signal, perhaps, to state governments of the Modi government’s commitment to strengthen the federal structure of the country. It was also an indication to Bangladesh of the complicated, political and emotive nature of the two issues and that their settlement was a “work in progress”. The EAM assured Bangladesh that efforts were on to evolve a national consensus on these issues. At the same time, during the run-up to the visit, Bangladeshi High Commissioner Tariq Karim had met with Home Minister Rajnath Singh and Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti to discuss the LBA and Teesta agreement respectively underlining the importance of the two issues for Bangladesh.

During the visit, the Bangladeshi side was apprised of India’s decision to ease tourist visa norms for Bangladeshi nationals under the age of 13 and above 65 years. They will be now given multiple entry visas for five years instead of one year. India has also decided to give additional 100 megawatts power to Bangladesh from the gas-based power project at Palatana in Tripura. Swaraj also announced a grant of Rs 60 crore for implementation of various projects in Bangladesh in the current financial year. During her meeting with Hasina, the EAM presented a plan for setting up a ‘Bangladesh Bhawan’ at Shantiniketan in West Bengal.

The two countries have decided to increase the frequency of Maitree Express between Kolkata and Dhaka and the trial runs between Dhaka-Shillong bus service was also discussed at the meeting of two Foreign Ministers. The Bangladeshi Foreign Minister, in a separate press conference, said Bangladesh has decided to send 10,000 tonne foodgrains to Tripura and the consignments will start with small truckloads as the roads were not geared to take big trucks.

Despite the EAM being “satisfied” with the outcome of her current visit, it would be fair to say that both sides took that extra care to ensure that contentious issues were skirted and the atmospherics of the goodwill visit not disturbed. Some key milestones in the Indo-Bangladesh relations yet to be crossed involve issues such as trade, connectivity, illegal migration and security cooperation.

Trade & Commerce

The two-way trade between India and Bangladesh stands at $6.6 billion for 2013-14 with India’s exports at $6.1 billion and imports from Bangladesh at $462 million. Indian investment in Bangladesh amounted to $2.5 billion in 2013. The industry body, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) recently stated in a note that India-Bangladesh trade could double to $10 billion by 2018 if bottle-necks such as non-tariff barriers and infrastructure-related issues are resolved. Bangladesh is not happy with the balance of trade and would like India to increase the volume and the range of the items being imported from the country.

There is also a dire need to adopt a comprehensive approach to revamping not only the physical infrastructure of all modes of cargo transport (road, rail, air, inland waterways and maritime) but also non-physical soft infrastructure such as cross-border transit facilitation measures, customs clearance supported by appropriate policies and regulations not just between the two countries but for the entire subcontinent trading bloc. According to a report by CUTS International, the cost of doing trade in the region is among the highest in the world and the prime deterrent of trade among South Asian countries.

Another measure to strengthen bilateral trade relations is to adopt a regional perspective on movement of goods, which will increase trade volumes, decrease costs, increase competitiveness, and open up fresh areas for collaboration in manufacturing etc.¹ A CUTS International research points out that, currently, most regionally traded product categories are barely half their true potential. According to 2013 trade data, an estimated US$20 billion worth of regional trade is lost because of reasons other than transport inefficiencies. Asymmetries in market information, frequent complaints of defaults on trade-related payments and perceived risk factors have discouraged traders from exploring regional markets. Measures such as financial connectivity, business-to-business interactions within the region provide significant stimulus to trade.

Connectivity

The CUTS study estimates that potential savings on trade costs from transport reforms, both physical and non-physical, could be US$4.6 billion annually. This is roughly one-fifth of the total value of intra-regional trade.The connectivity between the two countries needs to exploit the multi-modal potential of rail, road and inland water transport to lower transportation costs and aid trade. Despite years of negotiations, use of rail both to trade with Bangladesh and transit trade to India’s NE is yet to take shape. NE-India is virtually a landlocked territory and traffic from NE-India is required to travel 1400-1650 km to reach Kolkata Port. If transit is allowed, distances would be around 450-700 km. At present, goods are transshipped at the border between trucks.

There is no inter-country freight train except a passenger train between Dhaka-Kolkata. Rail wagons are pulled by Indian Locos up to the border and Bangladesh Locos pull these to destinations inside. Ideally there should be rail corridors across Bangladesh and Nagaland and Manipur facilitating movement of goods between India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Indian and Bangladeshi governments will start work early next year on a 15 km railway track linking Tripura's capital Agartala with Bangladesh's southeastern city of Akhaurah.² Lack of progress on the rail links has affected proposed regional rail links such as the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR).

There is also some apprehension in Bangladesh that India will not facilitate Bangladesh in its trade with Bhutan and Nepal (including transit trade) along the Asian Highway and the BCIM connectivity through Manipur maybe subject to conditions. Bangladesh also expects on basis of purely economic considerations 50% Nepalese (Kathmandu-Kakarvita/Banglabandha-Mongla) and 100% of Bhutanese (Thimpu-Phuentsholing/ Jaigaon- Burimari-Mongla) international traffic should be directed through Mongla Port; which has not happened. Accordingly, Bangladesh is desperate to develop connectivity to Myanmar and China through the Cox’s Bazar and Teknaf route (Teknaf-Maungdaw-Sittwe and Balukhali-Gundhum- Bawlibazar link road). These have not progressed as planned possibly due to the Rohingya issue in the area. The trust deficit in this regard would have to be overcome by the two countries.³

Figure: 1- Trans-Asian Railway (TAR)

Security

The BJP manifesto promised zero tolerance to cross-border terrorism, and also that it would take steps on illegal migration. These two issues will directly impinge on India's relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh. The EAM indicated New Delhi's willingness to extradite Nur Hossain, a serial-murder suspect who is currently in the custody of West Bengal police, considered as the first test for the extradition treaty signed between New Delhi and Dhaka last year. In a positive development, both nations reaffirmed their commitment not to allow their soil to be used for terror and disruptive activities directed against each other.

Just prior to the EAM’s visit, a Bangladesh court's order sentencing eight Islamic militants including Mufti Hannan, the Harkat-ul Jihad Islami (HuJI) head who is accused of terror attacks in India as well, was seen a signal from the Bangladeshi government to continue its cooperation on security and counter-terrorism. The militants were sentenced after the court found them guilty over deadly attacks during traditional celebrations of Bengali New Year in Dhaka in 2001.⁴

Illegal Migration

Given the policy position of the Modi government on the issue of illegal migration, it will be the most ticklish issue the two nations will have to negotiate as it has the potential to derail cooperation and mutual understanding. There is a requirement of great deal of pragmatism on the part of both the countries to resolve the issue amicably. Bangladesh would have to understand India’s politico-economic compulsion and urgency to check illegal migration from Bangladesh, while India would have to take into account the physical, political and social challenges the Bangladesh government faces on the issue.

The Bangladeshi stand on the issue in the public space is quite obtuse. Foreign Minister A H Mahmood Ali in an interview to an Indian newspaper said that during EAM’s visit there was no mention of illegal migrants and hence the issue is irrelevant. ⁵ In fact, he felt the Indian announcement of the visa liberalisation indicates that people from Bangladesh are welcome in India. The EAM in her speech at a think tank did talk about a legal and administrative regime to discourage illegal movement of people.

Analysts feel that Hasina is not keen that Modi lives up to his poll promise of "pushing out Bangladeshi illegals" because any such pushback, however symbolic, would complicate bilateral relations and put huge domestic pressure on the Awami League government to get tough with India.⁶ At the same time, an anti-Indian groundswell will be an opportunity for Khaleda Zia and could serve as a rallying point for her party and alliance, and get them back on the streets. Hasina's government discourages illegal migration and promotes legal labour exports to any country that is interested as legal migrants send back significant remittances which are Bangladesh's second-biggest source of foreign exchange after garment exports. It is this position that should serve as the starting point for a bilateral effort to manage the issue of illegal migration. Few pointers could be obtained in this regards from how US and Mexico have grappled with a problem of similar nature.

Defence Cooperation

Another issue that usually does not figure in the bilaterals but on which India could take a lesson from the Chinese is that of cooperation on arms supply and joint production China is a major arms provider to each of India’s neighbours with the exception of Bhutan. Bangladesh recently has made several arms purchases and has announced a defence budget of BTD164.6 billion (USD2.1 billion) for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. Pakistan has already sensed the opportunity and Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Pakistan's state-owned tank and armoured vehicle manufacturing unit, has offered to modernise Bangladesh's ageing T-54/Type 59 and Type 69 main battle tanks (MBTs) to the Al-Zarrar configuration "as per Bangladeshi requirements".

Conclusion

Besides the more discussed issues of sharing of Teesta river water and the LBA, several related issues such as trade, connectivity, illegal migration, security cooperation need to be addressed, progressed and resolved to ensure that the Indo-Bangladesh relations are maintained on a positive trajectory. The EAM has provided a good start to India’s “neighbours first” policy in Dhaka, the challenge would be to sustain the goodwill.

Endnotes

1. Bipul Chatterjee and Joseph George. ‘We must improve trade connectivity in South Asia, CUTS International,’ June 26, 2014. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2014/06/26/we-must-improve-trade-connectivi...
2. ‘Work on new India-Bangladesh railway link from 2015,’ The Times of India, June 17, 2014. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Work-on-new-India-Bangladesh-ra...
3. Lt Col (Retd) AFM Khairul Basher. ‘BCIM Corridor: The gateway of South Asia,’ The Daily Sun, June 18, 2014
4. Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury. ‘Swaraj To Reach Bangladesh Today - HuJI Sentencing Comes at Right Time for New Delhi-Dhaka Ties,’ The Economic Times, June 25, 2014. http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31816&articlexml=SWA...
5. Shubhajit Roy. Interview of Bangladesh Foreign Minister A H Mahmood Ali , Indian Express, 28 June 2014. http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=n&nid=8431
6. Subir Bhaumik. ‘Narendra Modi sending back illegal immigrants, pushing water pacts hold key to Dhaka politics,’ The Economic Times, May 21, 2014. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/narendra-m...

(The author is an independent analyst based in New Delhi)

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Published Date: 12^th August 2014, Image source: http://www.thedailystar.net

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Vivekananda International Foundation)

War Crime Trials: Bangladesh on the Edge

Neha Mehta 

(Research Associate, VIF)

The 1971 Liberation War in Bangladesh has been the worst chapter in Bangladesh’s history that witnessed genocide, rape and murder at the hands of the army of West Pakistan and their collaborators in East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh). This resulted in the 1971 civil war between Mukti Bahni (Liberation army) supported by India against the Pakistani forces which had the full support of Jamaat-e-Islami. It had formed paramilitary forces like Razakars, Al-Badr and Al-Shams that were against the independence of East Pakistan. During the nine months that the war continued the Pakistani army and their collaborators killed millions of people, mainly targeting Bangladeshi intelligentsia, minority groups, women and pro-independence forces that left a permanent scar in Bangladesh’s psyche. An estimated 3 million people lost their lives through various acts of genocide, in addition to 200,000 women who were raped. Such atrocities were instrumental in the migration of over 10 million people to India.

A politically divided nation that still retains the essential ideological divide is presently facing deep crisis and uncertainty owing to the verdicts of the International Crimes Tribunal. Setting up the International Crimes Tribunal was part of PM Sheikh Hasina’s election manifesto of the 2008 elections, taking into consideration the long held demand of the people to get justice for the crimes committed more than 40 years ago. Hence, in 2010 an International Crimes Tribunal (Bangladesh) was set up to try cases against the collaborators of the Pakistan army. This included a total of nine Jamaat-e-Islami leaders and two from Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)¹, covering almost the whole of Jamaat-e-Islami leadership including Jamaat’s current leader, Motiur Rahman Nizami and also the party’s head in 1971, Ghulam Azam.

The current political environment in the country has become extremely volatile with a clear division over the verdicts given by the International Crimes Tribunal. On the one hand, the Jamaat-e-Islami has out rightly rejected the verdict, going on a rampage instead to have their demands met. They have demanded the dissolution of the tribunals and freedom for the accused. To that effect, they have tried all means possible to put pressure on the government, domestically as well as internationally. The government however, has refused to relent and is not bowing to any kind of pressure employed by Jamaat. Rather, the nationalist fervour in the country has gained ascendancy and there is a clamour for awarding the maximum punishment as seen in the Shahbag square movement. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, an ally of Jamaat-e-Islami has not been openly supportive of them lest they be deemed anti nationalist and anti liberation war. In addition, with elections around the corner it would be detrimental to their image.

The present upheaval has plummeted the country into a state of anarchy as a consequence of the verdict given on the three Jamaat-e-Islami leaders in the International War Crimes Tribunals. The first verdict that came out on January 21, 2013 awarded death sentence to Abdul Kalam Azad alias Bachchu Razakar in absentia (supposed to be in Pakistan) for genocide and crimes against humanity. It was after the second verdict that announced life sentence to Jamaat-e-Islami’s assistant secretary-general, Abdul Quader Mollah on February 5, 2013 which resulted in student protests at the Shahbag square. It led to huge uproar amongst the people who strongly reacted against the verdict and wanted nothing less than the death sentence for the accused. In addition, the largely peaceful student demonstrators demanded a ban on fundamentalist political parties in Bangladesh. The demonstrators and the government, however, were on the same side in the case which led the government to amend the International Crimes Tribunal Act (1973) with a provision that allows the state to file an appeal with the Supreme Court against inadequate award of sentence by the Tribunal.

However, it was the death sentence given to Maulana Delawar Hussain Sayedee who is Jamaat-e-Islami Nayab-e-Ameer which became the tipping point leading the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami in unleashing a reign of terror and take law into their own hands. They vandalised public properties and engaged in street fighting resulting in many deaths. In addition, numerous attacks on the places of worship of minorities especially the Hindus as well as their houses were carried out by the activists of the Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir.

Political parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami identified as the collaborators and perpetrators of the war crimes in 1971 have always been known to damage the secular fabric of Bangladesh with their extremist activities and right wing leanings. It was seen in abundance in the last government of Khaleda Zia, in which Jamaat-e-Islami was part of the four party alliance forming the government. The period of their rule, (2001-2007) saw a corresponding rise in terrorist activities that wreaked havoc in the country and led to a very unstable political environment. The 2005 bombing in which around 500 bomb explosions occurred at 300 locations in 63 out of the 64 districts of Bangladesh as well as the attack on the political rally of Awami League in 2004 in which the present PM Sheikh Hasina almost lost her life are some of the examples. It was a time during which terrorism increased to unprecedented levels with attacks being planned against secular minded opposition parties as well as against India. Their aim essentially was to establish an Islamic state.

The efforts to derail the War Crimes trial since it started to function in 2010 have continued since then with a spate of controversies and pressure being put to stop the trials Earlier also, there were attempts to destabilise the current government in order to thwart the war crimes trial as was seen in the Feb 2009 mutiny by the Bangladesh Rifles. It was suspected to have been orchestrated by the Jamaat-e-Islami so that the Awami League could not keep their election promise.

In addition, in December last year the presiding Judge of Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal Mohammed Nizamul Huq’s email and skype conversations with a Brussels based lawyer were hacked. This led to his resignation and he was accused of being biased as it was alleged that he discussed the working of the tribunal with an outsider. However, the timing of the controversy that had erupted was particularly crucial as it was around this time that the verdict of Maulana Delawar Hussain Sayedee was awaited. It was aimed to bring into question the credibility of the judges and increase the pressure on the government. Owing to the controversy, calls were made for a retrial of this case, which were rejected. This was done essentially to stall the war crimes trial and project it as being one sided and biased in order to generate opinion against it internationally and domestically.

Additionally, diplomatic pressure was put on Bangladesh by the Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s letter to President Zillur Rahman that called for “clemency” to the accused on trial in the International Crimes Tribunal for the “sake of peace in the society”.² This move, however, surprised the government, that otherwise has excellent relations with the country and it was perceived as meddling in the internal affairs of Bangladesh leading to tensions between the two.

It is anticipated that verdict would be given to all the accused this year itself due to the amendment brought about to the war crimes law that made the appeal process to be completed within 90 days timeframe.³ Going by the recent spate of violence by the activists from the Jamaat-Shibir, gives a clear idea how volatile Bangladesh is going to be in the coming months.

The war crimes trials started after more than 40 years in 2010. This was not done earlier in order to restore the unity of the nation and to establish a politically stable democracy, so as to not divide the country ideologically at its birth. Therefore, the war criminals were granted amnesty by Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rahman, the father of the nation to essentially assimilate the group into the new nation. Nonetheless, such an action did not lead to its desired results, as is quite apparent historically with the spate of military coups, assassinations, political instability and steady rise of religious fanatics and extremism in the country. The desire to change the secular credentials of Bangladesh and turn it into an Islamic State has been a constant aim of the right wing parties in Bangladesh.

A backlash from the Jamaat after the verdicts was something that was expected but the youth movement at Shahbag showed the resolve of the Bangladeshi youth who led the way to make sure that the extremists get the severest punishment. The coming few months leading up to the elections to be held later this year or early next year would be crucial with a range of issues between the incumbent government and the opposition parties that could lead to a deadlock. The law and order situation particularly would be volatile owing to the verdicts that are awaited in the International Crimes Tribunal that might again bring the country to a standstill. However, the people of Bangladesh have waited long enough for justice to be done. Therefore it is imperative for the Awami League government to see that justice is done against the people who committed such heinous crimes against millions of Bangladeshi’s during the Liberation War.

Endnotes

1. Ethirajan, Anbarasan (Dec 2012), “Bangladesh war crimes judge Nizamul Huq resigns”,Accessed on: 15 March 2013, URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20677752
2. The Daily Star (Dec28, 2012), “Tension with Turkey”, Accessed on: 28 March 2013, URL:http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=262861
3. The Economist (March 2013), “Bangladesh's war-crimes trials: Bloodletting after the fact”, Accessed : 6 March 2013, URL: http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/03/bangladeshs-war-crimes-trials