INS Sindhurakshak Tragedy: Navy should Strengthen and Safeguard its Submarine Fleet

Radhakrishna Rao, 

Visiting Fellow, VIF

Even as the Indian Navy, the youngest of the three services, had every reason to rejoice over India’s home-grown nuclear powered submarine INS Arihant attaining criticality and the launch of the indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant in the first fortnight of August, a massive blow in the form of the wrecking of the INS Sindurakshak submarine in a devastative explosion on August. 14, turned the” mood of celebration” into a “moment of sorrow and introspection”.

The death of eighteen Indian Navy personnel on-board the ill fated Sindhurakshak, considered the key, frontline conventional submarine in service with the Indian Navy, made the tragedy all the more painful and shocking. Evidently, Sindhurarkshak was a sort of prized possession for the Indian Navy as it had come back from Russia after an extensive refurbishment. Incidentally, Sindhurakshak was deployed at the Mumbai dockyard following a US alert about the possible LeT(Lashkar-e-Toiba) attack along India’s coastline.The 2,300-tonne Sindhurakshak was, by all means, the operationally best submarine at the command of the Indian Navy since it got new sensors and underwent structural modifications which extended its lifespan by almost a decade .Following its midlife refit programme at Russia’s Zvezdochka shipyard at an estimated cost of US$80-million, Sindhurakshak, originally built in 1997, was equipped with the tube launched Club-5 cruise missile effective against the surface vessels and submarines at a range of about 200-kms. Sindhurakshak is one of the ten kilo class submarines that India bought from Russia between 1986 and 2000.

In the aftermath of this tragedy, Defence Minister A K Antony informed the Indian Parliament that “The navy has ordered a Board of Inquiry (BoI) and it has started with all the seriousness. Its terms of reference are to look into all aspects of causes of this incident. Nothing is ruled out. All likely aspects would be examined by BoI” said Antony. In a way, Antony’s statement implies that sabotage angle could not be ruled out.

Antony also revealed that the entire operational submarine fleet of the Indian Navy is currently undergoing extensive checks on the weapons related safety system and an audit of the current standards operational procedure has also been ordered. But then a serious question that begs answer is as to why the political dispensation in New Delhi slept over for more than a decade over a proposal for the acquisition of the submarine rescue system. Naval warfare experts point out that the timely deployment of the state of the art Deep Submergence Rescue Vessel (DSRV) could easily save the lives of the sailors on-board the submarine under disintegration. Naval forces of Russia, USA, China, UK and Singapore all have deep sea rescue systems in place. It may be recalled that in August 2000, more than 100 Russian sailors on-board the nuclear powered submarine Kursk, which sank in the Barents Sea, had to pay with their lives on account of the failure to deploy DSRV on time. The moral of the story is that by deploying a submarine rescue system, India could have easily managed to save the lives of the sailors on-board Sindhurakshak.

And in what seems to be the case of bolting the stable after horses have left, just a week before the Sindhurakshak tragedy, an RFI (Request for Information) was issued for a “Submarine Rescue Bell System with LARS”(Launch and Recovery System). Whether it is the procurement of the much needed artillery systems for the Indian armed forces or the acquisition of submarines for the Indian Navy, dithering and delay reinforced by a “deadly indifference” seems to have become the order of the day. And the country and its defence forces ultimately pay a very high price for the painfully slow decision making process of the poorly motivated bureaucracy associated with the defence acquisition programme.

On the other hand, India as a country has not exactly covered itself with glory in so far as ensuring safety in all its manifestations is concerned. It is high time that the Indian Navy took steps to decongest its facilities at Mumbai and Vishakhapatnam. To begin with, quickening impetus should be given to the completion of the phase two of the “Sea Bird” project at INS Kadamba at Karwar in Karnataka to help relocate some of the ships and submarines from Mumbai. It is in the fitness of things that it has been decided to berth the retrofitted aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya at Karwar naval base. In Vishakhapatnam, where the nuclear submarines are stationed, a refinery and a fertilizer plant are in close proximity to the naval facilities. What’s more, the harbour here with its narrow entrance can easily be blocked by sinking trawlers. As such, there is a need for a new green-field naval yard somewhere on the eastern coast. The principle that one cannot put all the eggs in one basket should be the guiding force of the Indian Navy.

Becoming wiser after the event seems to have become a norm rather than an exception for the Indian ruling elite. Antony has now directed for according a top most priority for sustaining the “operational efficiency” of the thirteen conventional diesel electric submarines left with the Indian Navy after the Sindhurakshak tragedy. Of course, an overwhelming majority of them are already into the evening of their lives .And only half of them will be available for deployment at a given time since the ageing submarine fleet is being forced to spend much of their time for repairs and maintenance. Further, Antony had made it clear that there should be no more delays in the construction of the six Scorpene submarines with the technology to be provided by the French firm DCNS. Antony has also asked for expediting the thirty year submarine building project which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) way back in July 1999.

By all means, submarines constitute the sinew of under-sea warfare strategy for they play a key role in neutralizing hostile naval vessels and blockading enemy harbours by laying mine fields. And now it looks as if India’s under sea combat arm stands compromised. Indeed, a fact filled CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) report tabled in the Indian Parliament in 2008 had raised the alarm bells by stating that due to “ageing fleet and prolonged refit schedules, the average operational availability of the Indian Navy submarine was as low as 45%”. The report had also pointed out that the “the availability of the submarines with the Indian Navy is much below the envisaged force level and a large number of submarines in the existing fleet have become due for decommissioning in the immediate future.” Indeed, the grim ground reality is that Indian Navy has not been in a position to boost its sub-sea patrol by acquiring new submarines after the year 2000.

To make the matter worse, Indian Navy is yet to acquire air independent propulsion (AIP) system driven submarines which can stay under-sea for longer periods in comparison to the conventional diesel electric submarines which are required to surface once in a few days for recharging their batteries. In the context of the expanding responsibilities being thrust upon it, the Indian Navy would need a minimum of 24 submarines to take care of the security on both the eastern and western coasts of the country. In comparison, China has about 60 submarines of which ten are nuclear powered. China is also into building ten more nuclear powered submarines.

Indeed, India’s ambitious plan for building six new generation conventional submarines under Project 75I stands behind schedule by three years due to the delay in decision making and finalizing the purchase of equipment to be fitted into the submarine including sensors and propulsion. As things stand now, the first of the six Scorpene submarines will be delivered only by 2015 with 2022 as the deadline for the delivery of the entire lot. Under Project 75I, two of the six submarines will be delivered in ready to use condition by the French firm DCNS. The DCNS will transfer the technology to India for building the remaining four submarines. The Indian part of the project will be executed by Mazagon Docks Ltd (MDL) in Mumbai and Hindustan Shipyard at Vishakhapatnam. These submarines will come equipped with the advanced AIP system. This project forms a part of the thirty year plan to boost the under- sea capability of the Indian Navy and strengthen the indigenous base for the design, development and production of the submarines. As part of the thirty year plan, it is envisaged that 24 new submarines will join the Indian naval fleet.

Currently, the only operational nuclear powered submarine at the command of the Indian Navy is INS Chakra which was launched in 2012. It was acquired on lease for a period of ten years from Russia. This Akula-II class “Nerpa” submarine has a maximum speed of 30 knots and can go to a depth of 600-metres.Chakra armed with four 533-mm and four 650-mm torpedo tubes is, by all means, a formidable undersea combat system .Of course, under the lease terms, Chakra cannot be equipped with nuclear weapons. But then Chakra would substantially strengthen the Indian Navy’s capability for power projection in the Indian Ocean region and beyond.

Indeed, India’s home grown nuclear powered submarine Arihant going critical on August 10 as a first step towards its extensive sea trials was a landmark event for the Indian Navy. Unlike the conventional diesel driven submarines, the 6,000-tonne Arihant will remain submerged in water for months on end, thus making its detection a really difficult task. Powered by a compact, indigenous Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR) capable of generating 83-MW of power, Arihant has catapulted India into the elite league of a handful of countries which have mastered the technological complexities involved in building a nuclear powered submarine. Incidentally, India happens to be the only nation in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) to possess a nuclear powered submarine.

On its part, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is planning to induct BO-5 medium range nuclear missile into Arihant. It is also planned to equip Arihant with K-15 nuclear tipped missile which has a range of 700-km.Further into the future, Arihant can serve as a formidable platform for launching the under sea version of the Indo- Russian supersonic cruise missile BrahMos. Three more nuclear propelled submarines would be constructed under Indian Navy’ high profile Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) programme.

Clearly and apparently, Arihant and its follow on submarines including Aridhaman will substantially strengthen India’s nuclear strike capability. In the context of India’s national policy of “no first use of nuclear weapons”, the submarine arm of the nuclear triad will provide India a “credible second strike capability” to inflict “unacceptable damage” on the adversary. By all means, the submarine based ballistic missiles are considered the most effective and difficult to detect nuclear weapons delivery system.

But then it would be sometime before India’s fully home grown nuclear powered submarines go operational and become a part of the under sea arm of the Indian Navy. As such, with a view to beef up the rapidly dwindling submarine capability of the Indian Navy in the immediate future, India is now negotiating with Russia for the lease of the another nuclear powered submarine. All said and done, ensuring the safety of submarines is as critical as acquiring and maintaining them. For not long back, a US navy lieutenant who chose to remain anonymous through his blogs had expressed his unhappiness over the poor empowerment of Indian Navy personnel in terms of enforcing safety measures at all levels in a professional manner. Evidently, the US Navy blogger is known to have spent a few days with an Indian Navy ship in the Arabian Sea under the exchange programme.

Because the entire submarine fleet with the Indian Navy is both old and obsolete, the problems associated with ensuring their safety are too many and complex. For example, the fighting equipments past their designed life span are prone to mishaps and accidents. And the delay in procurement of new systems to replace the older ones only adds to the problem of ensuring safety. As is the case with the proposals for the procurement of battlefield hardware for the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force (IAF), the plan for the acquisition of submarines for the Indian Navy has been hanging fire for many years now. Unless our defence bureaucracy develops a vision and motivation for fast tracking the battlefield hardware in a time bound, transparent and cost effective manner, accidents like the Sindhurakshak tragedy is bound to repeat time and again. It may be recalled that the diesel electric driven submarine INS Sindhughosh had run into collision with a fishing boat in 2006 followed by a merchant vessel in 2007.

India should also probe thoroughly the observation of the Russian side that the violations of safety regulations could be the most likely cause of the explosion that wrecked Sindhurakshak. But here again, it would also be appropriate for the Indian Navy to evaluate the quality of Russian workmanship as well as the integrity of the systems and weapons forming part of the submarine. Of course, Indian Navy has in place well formulated and time tested procedures for ensuring the safety of submarines. But then to what extent they are implemented with all the seriousness they deserve, no one is sure as yet. And in particular this angle should be probed in depth.

For the navy personnel, living and operating in an undersea environment of the submarine, makes for a demanding and unforgiving task, for they lead a check by jowl existence with a bank of chemical batteries requiring periodic charging, inflammatory and dangerous gases as well as highly explosive warheads. This implies that even a small “mistake or lapse” could be dangerous and could cause a huge explosion leading to a certain catastrophe. Especially, while working in a submarine acquired from overseas source, the Indian Navy sailors should display a greater level of circumspection and caution as there are many “grey areas” in the safety measures and principles devised for them. There is no denying the fact that only a home grown system could ensure a greater level of safety and security in comparison to imported hardware. For here Indian naval personnel could have access to the entire range of data—starting from design phase to the level of integration and final assembly. In case of doubt, they can always go back to the original source. And this advantage would not be available with an imported system. This is one more major argument that goes to boost the case of indigenization from the word go.

Coming to the Sindhurakshak tragedy, greater stress should be placed on the safety of the propulsion system of a submarine. For it is speculated that the failure of the safety system related to the propulsion module of Sindhurakshak was responsible for the explosion. Because the diesel electric powered submarines are run on chemical batteries requiring occasional charging, the chances of their being subjected to explosion cannot be ruled out. By going in for the air independent propulsion system, the chances of submarine accidents could be minimized. All said and done, the argument of Uday Bhaskar, former Director of the National Maritime Foundation that “the zero error safety tenet will have to be reemphasized and internalized” should be the guiding principle of the safety procedures being implemented for the Indian submarine fleet. In the ultimate analysis, the security aspects of the mechanism of man machine interface should receive utmost priority to obviate the Sindhurakshak type tragedy. Under no circumstance should the safety principles be compromised. And the Indian Navy should lose no time in insulating its submarine fleet from “mishaps and accidents” by implementing safety rules and regulations at every stage of the operation.

Need to Transform Indian Navy into A Blue water Maritime Force

Radhakrishna Rao, 

Visiting Fellow, VIF

In the context of the South China Sea rapidly emerging as a turbulent oceanic stretch with China questioning the claims of a number of Asian countries over this disputed water body, late last year Indian Navy Chief Admiral DK Joshi had driven home the point that the Indian Navy is prepared to deploy vessels to the South China sea to protect Indian interests there. As it is, not long back India had sparred diplomatically with China over its gas and oil exploration blocks off the coast of Vietnam. China claims virtually the entire mineral rich South China Sea and has stepped up its naval presence here to ward off any challenge to its monopoly of this oceanic body. Joshi did also express the view that Beijing’s growing maritime strength was a “major cause of concern.” The moral of the story is that the Indian Navy cannot afford to keep its focus concentrated exclusively on the Indian Ocean region. It should build up the capability and power level good enough to take care of Indian interests in any part of the global oceanic stretch.

As diplomatic experts point out, China is beefing up its naval capability with a view to not only exercise virtual monopoly over the South China Sea but also challenge US dominance over the global oceanic waters. The combat edge of the Chinese navy is expected to receive a shot in the arm from the home grown,58,000-tonne class Liaoning aircraft carrier built around the decommissioned Soviet era ship Varyag. China has been able to successfully land the indigenous fighter J-15 on the deck of Liaoning, which is currently going through extensive sea trials.

Of course, Joshi did hit the nail on the head with the statement that while India was not a claimant in the dispute over territorial rights in South China sea, it was prepared to act, if necessary to protect its maritime and economic rights in the region. “China opposes any unilateral oil and gas exploration activities in disputed area in the South China sea and hopes countries respect China’s sovereignty and national interests as well as the efforts of countries within the region to resolve dispute through bilateral negotiations,” said an official of China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Nearer home, recent developments in the neighbouring Sri Lanka and Maldives cannot but be a cause of concern for India. Along with Myanmar and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives are considered vital components of the Chinese strategy of “string of pearls” aimed at encircling India. In addition to lending a big hand to a variety of infrastructure projects in these two island nations, China has already made inroads in the area of space cooperation with both Sri Lanka and Maldives. The immense strategic significance of space cooperation could provide China a powerful platform in the Indian Ocean region to further its geo strategic interests. As such, Indian intelligence and security agencies have suggested that ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) should take a proactive role in building and launching satellites for these two vitally located Indian ocean island nations with which India has had a long standing, cordial relations. But then unlike China, which already operates a string of powerful rockets capable of delivering satellite payloads of different weight class to required orbital slots, ISRO lacks the launch power to deliver satellites in two tonne plus class. For currently, ISRO operates a solitary launch vehicle PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle), the most powerful version of which is capable of delivering a 1800kg satellite into a polar/sun-synchronous orbit.

Meanwhile, in a development of significance, Indian Navy’s offensive capability will stand augmented with the state owned Kolkatta based Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE)launching work on the third corvette with stealth features. With 90% of the indigenous contents, this third anti submarine warfare corvette under Project-28 will showcase India’s warship building potentials with domestic resources and indigenous expertise. Aimed at enhancing Indian Navy’s underwater warfare capabilities, the warship, is said to be a first of its kind to be fitted with indigenous state of art weapons and sensors.

On another front, India’s near futuristic naval base is also set to take shape on the eastern sea board .This vitally situated sea base with an eye firmly set on China will ultimately have underground pens or bunkers to protect nuclear submarines from prying eyes of spy satellites. The project named Varsha to be located close to Vishakhapatnam is considered a counterpoise to China’s massive underground nuclear submarine base on the south-western tip of Hainan Island.

And to further bolster its blue water capabilities, the Indian Navy plans to acquire five self propelled Fleet Support Ships (FSS) that should be capable of transferring all types of stores, ammunition, fuel and personnel to naval units. Clearly and apparently, blue water navies boast of large auxiliary fleets comprising longer range fleet support vessels designed to provide support far beyond territorial waters. As part of the plan to boost its long range surveillance capability, in December last, the Indian Navy received first of its eight P-81 maritime patrol aircraft from it had ordered from the American defence and aerospace major Boeing. The P-81 long range surveillance aircraft is well suited for anti submarine warfare. Indian Navy has also decided to exercise the option of going in for additional four P-81 aircraft with a view to strengthen its maritime patrol capabilities as well as counter piracy threats and the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region.

On a longer term canvas, Indian Navy has a 30 year plan for inducting 24 new submarines that was approved by the Indian Government in late 1990s.But unfortunately that plan went wrong with not a single new vessel inducted in the one and half decade since. The Indian Navy currently has 14 diesel–electric submarines in its fleet-10 Russian origin Kilo class vessels and four HDW German origin vessels-apart from one nuclear powered vessel borrowed from Russia on a 10 year lease. China on the other had has 60 diesel-electric submarines and 10 nuclear powered vessels in its fleet. As such the need of the hour is to strengthen the submarine fleet of the Indian navy which is looking at expanding the area of its “operations”.

There is no denying the fact that the Indian Navy would need to boost by a substantial extent its surveillance and reconnaissance, capability with a view to attain a blue water capability essential to meet the multi dimensional challenges of the future. The Indian Navy, currently the fifth largest in the world, plans to operate three aircraft carriers by the end of this decade. Indeed, air arm holds the key to attaining a credible blue water capability in all its manifestations. Against this backdrop, Indian Navy’s maritime doctrine rightly incorporates comprehensive modernization plan for its air arm through a mid life upgrades and modernization of its current aircraft fleet. The induction of Mig-29 multi role fighter aircraft with air combat, ground attack and maritime strike capability, would prove a major force multiplier for the air arm of the Indian Navy.

The 37,500-tonne Air Defence Ship (ADS), currently under construction at the Cochin Shipyard Ltd, will be capable of accommodating 30 combat aircraft mix of Mig-29K and LCA Tejas navy. Everything going as planned; this indigenous aircraft carrier will be inducted into the Indian Naval fleet by around the middle of this decade. Looking into the future, Indian Navy has also drawn up a plan to design and develop a vastly improved home grown aircraft carrier as a follow up to ADS. The Indian navy’s currently operational lone aircraft carrier Viraat is planned to replaced by INS Vikramaditya which is now undergoing sea trials in Russia .

However, the delay in the delivery of the retrofitted aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya by Russia is a matter of concern for the Indian navy. This 45,000-tonne class carrier refurbished around Russian decommissioned vessel Admrial Gorhskov was to be handed over to India in December 2012. But problems in the boiler of the carrier revealed during the sea trials of September 2012 implied that the carrier required extensive rectification to render it fully operational. The saga of INS Vikarmaditya has been marred by time slippages in delivery schedule and steep cost escalation. India, which in 2004 had signed US$974-million deal for the retrofitting of this decommissioned Russian vessel, was ultimately forced to cough up US$2.3-billion. The air arm INS Vikarmadiaya comprises Mig-29K deck based fighters and Ka-30 early warning helicopters. Sometime back, Indian Defence Minister AK Antony had told the Indian Parliament that the Russia has been asked to deliver the retrofitted aircraft carrier before the end of 2013.

In a major milestone in developing a home grown deck based fighter, the naval version of India’s home-grown fighter aircraft Tejas is now getting ready for a flight test involving the crucial ski jump trials at the shore based test facility at Hans air station of the Indian Navy in Goa. The ski jump trial is crucial for establishing the carrier compatibility of the deck based fighter. Derived from the air force version, the naval Tejas is longitudinally unstable fly by wire aircraft making it agile war machine. The flight control system of LCA navy is being augmented with Leading Edge Vortex Controller (LEVCON) aiding reduction in approach speed for carrier landing. Landing gear for Tejas naval has been adequately strengthened to withstand increased landing loads in carrier operations. Phase Two of the LCA Tejas naval envisages the development of a single seat fighter with a new higher thrust engine and further design optimization.

With the kind of capabilities on the anvil, Indian Navy is seriously working towards transforming itself into a credible maritime force to tackle multi-dimensional challenges of the future. Against the fast changing global maritime dynamism, the Indian Navy has drawn up an ambitious plan to take care of the Indian ’interests and assets” across high seas of the world. Indian Navy is clear in its perception that the futuristic threat would be dynamic and could emanate from multiple sources. Perhaps the most striking feature of the on-going programme of modernization launched by the Indian Navy is its thrust on sourcing its requirements through the indigenous routes by harnessing the potential of the Indian industry. The Indian Navy has already made it clear that its plan for modernization is not China specific but based on the multiple threats facing India.

Indian Navy’s vision is to position itself as the third largest fleet in the world. The centrepiece of Indian Navy’s modernisation scheme revolves round besides the acquisition of aircraft carriers, the nuclear powered submarines. In 2009, India launched INS Arihant, its first home-grown nuclear submarine. This will give India a nuclear triad, currently capability possessed only by US, China and Russia. Arihant will carry Shaurya missile capable of carrying one ton class nuclear warhead with a range of 750-km.The 6,000-tonee plus Arihant equipped with a dozen K-15 ballistic missiles will constitute the robust under sea leg of the Indian nuclear triad.

The Nerpa class Chakra nuclear submarine which India has taken on lease from Russia in tandem with Arihant will give Indian Navy a greater degree of manoeuvrability to hoodwink the enemy’s surveillance system and strike hard as they remain submerged indefinitely. Arihant is now close to attaining its operational status. In particular the sea based nuclear strike capability being put in place by the Indian navy would provide credible second strike capability. Incidentally, the nuclear strike capability based on a submarine platform has the advantage in terms of stealth and survivability in cause of a first attack.

The vision of Indian navy is to operate 150 plus warships of various categories and 500 aircraft including fighter jets, helicopters and maritime reconnaissance aircraft by 2027. However the trump card of the Indian Navy is the Indo-Russian supersonic cruise missile BrahMos which has already been inducted into some of its warships. The 290-km range BrahMos with a phenomenal destructive power has been described as the “most powerful and most formidable” naval missile of its kind.

In keeping with the global trends, Indian Navy has been quite keen on making use of the space assets with a view to projects its combat power in littoral regions with a greater degree of confidence. The plan is to create and sustain a three dimensional, technology driven and satellite enabled network centric system to transform itself into a formidable sea power. To boost its strike capability, Indian Navy is quite keen to link up its long range missiles, radars and air defence systems as well as the sea bed assets to a central room through a highly dedicated satellite network.

Given the practical difficulties involved in guarding long and porous coastal stretch, the Indian Navy is looking at a string of satellites specially designed to take care of maritime security aspects. Against such a backdrop, Indian Navy should be excited over the possibility of the launch of multi band communications satellite GSAT-7 sometime this year by ISRO. This satellite which will serve as the exclusive space platform of the Indian Navy will go a long way towards strengthening the communications network of the Indian Navy to effectively link up its resources spread across the vast and sprawling oceanic region. It is expected to transform the entire maritime domain awareness of the Indian navy. As envisaged now, the satellite will have a 600-700 nautical miles footprint over the Indian Ocean region.

Further into the future, as the situation unfolds, the Indian Navy will look at having dedicated satellite systems for ocean monitoring, weather watch, navigation, surveillance and reconnaissance. Without doubt, in years ahead to sustain its expansion programme, Indian navy would be interested in acquiring advanced microwave imaging satellite systems, naval transit space platforms, electronic ferret satellites and other specialized space birds.

Indian Navy should draw inspiration from the fact that India has had a long and chequered maritime and ship building tradition. What is more, the setting up of cultural empire in South East Asia by Indian rulers was a tribute to the sea faring spirit of medieval India. According to the US based geo-strategist Parag Khanna, who is also the founding director of the Global Governance Initiative at the new American Foundation think tank, “In terms of geopolitics, India’s influence is still very limited…What underpins that is the reality that India is not going to be what initially was thought and hoped it would be a land based continental rival to balance China. Now, India is seen as much more a naval power—overseeing and having a strategic role with respect to the Indian Ocean and the trade routes there. That actually is the geopolitical future of India. It is a very strong future.”