As US goes Retrograde in Afghanistan Pakistan gets an Upgrade

Monish Gulati

Introduction

Kicking-off the first phase of the US pull-out from Afghanistan, two convoys of 25 containers each crossed the Torkham and Chaman border check-posts in Pakistan on 10 Feb 2013. The containers, “part of the US redeployment of equipment from Afghanistan”, were on way to Karachi to be shipped back to the US. The move oddly signifies the start to what president Obama termed in his SOTUS to the American nation on 12 February 2013, the “end of our war in Afghanistan”. At the same time in sharp contrast yet within the same process, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the leader of Pakistan’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) faction with tacit approval of the Pakistan federal government, met with the Afghan Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar. A move that sees Pakistan ‘upgrade’ itself into the lead role in the ‘Afghan-owned’ peace process after the London trilateral summit meeting held on 3-4 February 2013.

Mawlana Fazlur Rahman, the leader (amir) of the JUI-F left for Qatar on 09 February to hold talks with Taliban. ¹ According to a report, it was on the invitation of the Taliban. The Maulana was accompanied by a member of the Pakistan National Assembly from the tribal areas, Haji Munir Khan Orakzai. They met a group of Taliban representatives led by Tayyab Agha and assisted by Shahabuddin Delawar on 10 February 2013 at a farmhouse in the suburbs of Doha in a first such direct meeting between representatives from Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. ² Tayeb Agha is a close aide and former secretary to Mullah Omar, and Shahabuddin Delawar was the Taliban envoy to Riyadh during the Taliban rule in Afghanistan.

Though Mawlana Fazlur Rahman is currently in the political opposition, the influential politician is believed to have been holding talks with the Taliban on behalf of Pakistan. There is no official confirmation from either Pakistan or Afghanistan about the nature and the exact purpose of the talks in Doha. However, as reported by the Pakistani media the JUI-F leader went to Doha as part of the Pakistani efforts to persuade the Taliban to come to the negotiating table. ³ In an interview on 09 February 2013, the central leader of JUI-F, Hafiz Hussain Ahmed stated that JUI-F chief had been invited to participate in the reconciliatory process between the US and Taliban. ⁴ He added that negotiations were also aimed at exploring ways of how Pakistan could become part of the Qatar initiative (Doha process). ⁵

Afghan Position

Commenting on the trip of Maulana Fazal-Ur-Rahman to Qatar, the Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul said that no talks had started with the Taliban officials in Qatar as yet and no office had been opened for the Taliban in Qatar as yet. ⁶ There were also reports that the Mawlana’s trip to Qatar has neither been welcomed by the High Peace Council (HPC) nor by the Afghan Government. ⁷ However, according to some reports in the Afghan media the HPC welcomed the recent of visit of Pakistan’s JUI-F leader, but said the Council had no prior information about the trip. The HPC added that despite being unaware of the nature of negotiations in Qatar the talks will have a positive impact on the peace process. ⁸

Pakistani Position

Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik in his remarks on 10 February 2013 distanced the government from the JUI-F chief’s participation in the Afghan peace talks in Doha. Malik said the JUI-F chief was no longer an ally of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led government and was taking part in the Doha talks ‘in his personal capacity’. He added that “Fazlur Rehman is the head of an independent party… the government does not have any business in his negotiations with the [Afghan] Taliban or any other stakeholder.” ⁹ Reports in Pakistani television channels suggested the visit was part of the Pakistani government’s efforts to reach out to members of Afghan Taliban, representatives of which are already in Doha to hold preliminary talks about opening their political office. ¹⁰

JUI-F Position

The special spokesman accompanying Maulana Fazlaur Rehman on his visit to Qatar told the media that the Maulana is in Qatar on four-day party tour and he is holding consultations with the party workers in Qatar. ¹¹ “We are here and going to meet the Pakistani community and some Qatari officials in the next couple of days, it is a trip on the invitation of the Pakistani community. Nothing else, this is a private tour”. ¹²

While the exact details of the outcome of the meeting in Doha have not been disclosed, it has been reported by the Afghan media that that during the meeting the Taliban said that they will only negotiate with the Kabul administration if it agrees for the establishment of transitional Government. A member of the HPC said that “peace is an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process, if it’s ignored by any country, we will not accept it.” ¹³

Analysis

In a joint statement issued after the London summit, Karzai, Zardari and David Cameron had supported the opening of an office in Doha for the purpose of negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the HPC. It was reported that Pakistan had certain reservations over the proposed initiative particularly regarding the preconditions that the Karzai administration consistently attaches to the Doha process. Karzai’s government wants that Doha office should only be used for negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan HPC. Pakistan felt that such preconditions were more of a hindrance to a “broad based all-inclusive reconciliation process”. ¹⁴ The Pakistani viewpoint could have come from its need to involve the Maulana as its representative, to take lead role in the initiative and speed up the peace process.

Maulana Fazal-ur-Rahman is one of the few the political leaders of Pakistan, who, wields considerable influence across the Pakistan border in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban has received support from the madrassas run by Maulana's faction of the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (JUI). Fazl ur-Rahman built his public image by supporting Zulfaqir Ali Bhutto's daughter Benazir Bhutto during her second term as the prime minister. His cooperation with the PPP to some extent diminished temporarily his party's image. He had charges leveled against him regarding supply permits for exporting diesel from Pakistan to Afghanistan, which earned him the nick name ‘Maulana Diesel’. Maulana Fazal is from the dominant Deobandi school of thought, the same ideology as that of the Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. It is said that the Maulana also played a role in the last year’s secret talks between the US, Taliban and Germany in Qatar. President Karzai is also supposed to have sent a letter to the Maulana to encourage the Taliban to join peace talks.

JUI-F and TTP

Maulana Fazal-ur-Rahman is among three mainstream Pakistani political leaders whom the TTP has chosen to be a guarantor in its latest offer for peace talks with the country’s military. The JUI-F leader has indicated that he is ready to play the role of a mediator between the Pakistani authorities and the TTP. ¹⁷

Maulana Fazlaur Rehman’s brother and member of the National Assembly, Maulana Attaur Rehman also confirmed that JUI-F is seriously reviewing the offer of becoming a guarantor on behalf of the TTP in government-TTP peace talks. He said that the JUI-F supports dialogue with the TTP. ¹⁸

A leader of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood party, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, also went to Qatar to hold talks with the Taliban. ¹⁹ It’s said that Dr al-Qaradwai has contacts with the Taliban’s office in Qatar and that he played a role to spur the negotiations. Al-Qaradawi has a prominent role within the intellectual leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood and a professional relationship with the Seerah and Sunnah Center at Qatar University.

Implications for India

Maulana Fazl-Ur-Rahman, is also the Chairman of the special committee of the Pakistan National Assembly on Kashmir. The present special committee was constituted on 19th August, 2008. The maulana with his string of madrassas has today emerged as the ‘thread’ that links the Afghan Taliban, the TTP and Kashmir. He has the ear of the Pakistani and Afghan governments and he will have the US support once he secures the release of Sgt Bowe Bergdahl form the Taliban; and that of the NATO once he gets the Taliban to the negotiating table. This ‘thread’ winds down to Dar-ul-uloom in India. The Maulana’s position on India is well known. The involvement of the Maulana in the peace process raises the possibility of the Afghan Taliban and the TTP being on to a common platform, greater focus on Kashmir and reduction in India’s role in Afghanistan’s future. Irony of the situation is that the man who has provided the Afghan Taliban foot soldiers and religious legitimacy is negotiating peace for US/NATO while representing Pakistani interests.

End Notes

1. ‘Fazl off to Qatar for Taliban talks’, The Nation, February 10, 2013.
   http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/na...
2. Kamran Yousaf, ‘The Qatar initiative: JUI-F chief features in Doha talks’, The Express Tribune, February 11, 2013. http://tribune.com.pk/story/505597/the-qatar-initiative-jui-f-chief-feat...
3. ibid
‘

4. JUI-F joins US-Taliban reconciliatory process for bringing peace in Afghanistan’, South Asian News Agency ,February 9, 2013 http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m95089&hd=&size=1&l=e
5. Ser 2.
6. Shamshad TV Headlines, February11, 2013.
7. Hewad Daily, February 11, 2013.
8. Hasht-e-Subh Daily, February13, 2013).

‘

9. Afghan peace talks: Govt distances itself from Fazl’s move’, The Express Tribune, February 11, 2013.
   http://tribune.com.pk/story/505580/afghan-peace-talks-govt-distances-its...
10. Zia Khan. ‘Leading Pakistani cleric in Doha as Afghan Taliban get ready to open office’, Gulf Times, February 10, 2013. http://www.gulf-times.com/qatar/178/details/341638/leading-pakistani-cle...
11. ‘JUI-F joins US-Taliban reconciliatory process for bringing peace in Afghanistan’, South Asian News Agency, February 9, 2013 http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m95089&hd=&size=1&l=e
12. Ser 10.
13. Tolo TV, February 12, 2013.
14. Ser 2.
15. http://www.abdallahshah.com/JHI-F.html
16. Hasht-e-Subh Daily, Editorial, February 13, 2013.
17. Ser10.
18. Ser11.
19. Ser8.  

Taliban and Afghan Peace – No Tango after Paris

Monish Gulati 

A track II initiative was organized on 20-21 December 2012 by the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) at the Chateau de la Tour Hotel in Gouvieux, Chantilly fifty kilometers north of Paris. The meeting was the third such event arranged by the FRS. About twenty Afghans from the quasi-governmental High Peace Council (HPC), the main political opposition parties in Afghanistan, the Taliban, as well as and the Hezb-e-Islami militant group met at Chantilly to lay grounds for more meaningful talks in the future between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The Afghan president had expressed support for the meeting, saying he backed any forum for discussion with the insurgents.

The talks were held against a background of frantic efforts to draw the Taliban and other opponents of President Karzai into negotiations on the future political arrangements in Afghanistan as the NATO and ISAF pull out by the end of 2014. Last peace talks between the US and the Taliban had broken down in March 2012 mainly because the Taliban had refused to agree to a deal under which detainees released from Guantánamo Bay would remain under Qatari government supervision at Doha. 

Meeting

Shahabuddin Delawar and Naeem Wardak represented the Taliban in Paris. Dilawar is a former deputy head of the Taliban’s Supreme Court. The Taliban negotiators were a part of what U.S views as a “pragmatist” faction within the Taliban headed by Akhtar Mohammad Mansour. A Taliban spokesman had been reported saying prior to the Paris meeting that “We are not going to discuss peace," he said. "This gathering is not about peace.”

 At the meeting Delawar and Wardak read a prepared statement and the five-point outline of their agenda called, amongst other things, for amendments to the Constitution. They said the current “constitution is illegitimate because it is written under the shadows of B-52 aircrafts” (referring to the US invasion). They demanded a new constitution be written by Afghans in “free atmosphere”, implying after the withdrawal of NATO/ISAF troops. And the new constitution should be based on “principles of noble Islam, national interest and historical achievements.” They also asked for the withdrawal of the NATO/ISAF troops prior to peace talks and the upcoming elections.

The FRS had presented an agenda for discussion during the meeting. A key demand was to study the possibility of moving the country towards a parliamentary system, with less concentration of power in the hands of the President. This view is also held by several western analysts who consider it as a drawback of the Afghan constitution. Other issues raised at the meeting covered human and gender rights, and amnesty from prosecution. The unanimous opinion regarding the Taliban at the meeting was that they should lay down their arms, stop the violence, leave their Pakistani sanctuaries and enter the Afghan political process starting with the participation in the upcoming provincial and presidential elections. 

The Afghan government initially expressed optimism after the Paris talks, “We welcome the Paris negotiations as well as the participation of Taliban at the meeting. We hope such negotiations continue,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Janan Mosazai said at a press conference. He added that the government’s preconditions for the talks with the Taliban have not changed: a cease-fire, recognition of the Afghan constitution, cutting ties with international terrorists and agreeing to respect the rights of Afghan citizens including women and children. The Afghan government did not comment on the demands of the Taliban raised during the meeting. 

Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, who was the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan before the US invasion of Afghanistan was also present at the Paris meeting, not part of the Taliban team but in individual capacity. He suggested establishment of a commission comprising of all Afghan stakeholders to discuss proposed changes in the constitution in 2013. A suggestion the Taliban team did not oppose. This was possibly one of the positives of the meeting which otherwise was merely restating of positions by various stakeholders. Mohammad Hanif Atmar, former minister of interior and representative of the Rights and Justice Party at the talks said that another meeting, similar to the present one, will be held in Paris in a month. 

Post Meeting

The Afghan government and President Hamid Karzai in particular, are wary of peace efforts not led by Kabul and more so by the Taliban’s refusal to hold direct talks with it. After the Paris meeting, Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Zalmai Rassoul was called to the Afghan Senate to address the body's concerns over the Paris meeting. He reportedly told the Senate, surprisingly, that there was insufficient information about the backgrounds of the two Taliban representatives at the Paris meeting, and that the Taliban faction Delawar and Wardak represented could not be identified. He went on to add that there is no need of holding such meetings outside the country and such talks should be held in Afghanistan. Senator Rafiullah Haidari said the Paris meeting was not representative enough and did not represent those who fought in the Afghan jihad. 1 

Taliban Office

The second twist to the affair was provided by the Afghan government’s comments on the establishment of a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar. Afghan Foreign Minister insisted that the Afghan government will not allow the Taliban group to open a liaison office in Qatar unless the group is prepared for direct peace talks. He said, “The office for the Taliban group will not be opened unless the Taliban group or its representatives do not announce to start talks with the Afghan government. It will be highly risky if the office is opened and secret talks are held.” 2 However during the 11 January 2013 meeting in Washington, President Obama and Karzai endorsed the opening of a "Taliban office" in a third-party country to "facilitate" reconciliation talks3.

Taliban too firmed up its position after the Paris meeting and early this year a statement was released on ‘Voice of Jihad’, the official website of the Afghan Taliban, signed by "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" which rejected any security agreement between the US and the Afghan government as "a personal deal between Karzai and America," and said "it shall hold no legal credibility. The Islamic Emirate shall continue its sacred Jihad against it just as it has for the past eleven years, if even a single American soldier" remains in country, the Taliban stated. The Taliban made the statement as the Afghan government is freeing hundreds of Taliban prisoners and the US government is debating the size of residual force for post-2014 period. 

Release of Taliban Detainees

Afghan officials believe that freeing Taliban members could be a positive step towards persuading the Taliban fighters to accept peace negotiations, hold direct talks with the government and eventually transform the Taliban into a political movement. The Afghan government has freed more than 250 Taliban prisoners formerly held by the U.S. and plans on releasing an additional 150 soon. 4 

Prisoners were released on January 4, 2013 from the Bagram military prison, north of Kabul, and other jails across the country. Their release was secured through a special complaints committee, amid hopes that it might help peace and reconciliation efforts. An Afghan Defense Ministry official, Jalaluddin Dehati said a total of 1,200 prisoners will be set free in the coming weeks. According to the official, Bagram prison at present holds about 3,000 Taliban fighters and suspected terrorists. 5

In neighboring Pakistan, 26 Taliban have been freed in recent months and there are reports that Kabul had presented a 40-man list of detainees to Islamabad. The list includes Mullah Noorudin Turabi, a former Taliban justice minister, Anwar ul-Haq Mujahid, a military commander who headed Taliban operations in Tora Bora. Others on the list include top advisers to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar. 

Pakistan has said recently that it plans to release all Afghan Taliban prisoners still in its custody. Jalil Jilani, Pakistan's foreign secretary said at a news conference in Abu Dhabi that Islamabad was coordinating the release of all prisoners and those released will include Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the militants group's former second-in-command. Kabul has long called on Islamabad to free Baradar, whom it sees as key to moving forward the peace negotiations with the Taliban. 6

Analysts say the move to free Taliban detainees is fraught with risk. The Afghan government has not been able to track the freed detainees, and some are thought to be returning to the battlefield. Under a "safe passage" agreement between Kabul and Islamabad, prisoners have been released with no conditions and many have simply disappeared. The Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program, which offered resettlement opportunities including security to Taliban foot soldiers and received some $140 million from international donors, has persuaded only about 1,000 militants to join the mainstream. 7 

French Connection

The French Foreign Ministry had said that the Paris meeting -- called the “third inter-Afghan closed academic seminar” -- will bring together “participants from the various components of Afghan society for discussions on 'Afghanistan -- Toward 2020.'8 France, which hosted similar meetings in 2011 and December, 2012, says it has no direct involvement in the event other than hosting it. The Paris meeting had been preceded by similar talks on 28 June 2012 in Japan, between Qari Din Mohammad, a member of the Taliban’s former Afghan minister of planning, and Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, head of the Afghan HPC, which had been facilitated by the Doshisha University, Kyoto. 

The meeting came on the heels of France ending its combat mission in Afghanistan as it withdrew its remaining 500 combat troops from the Nijrab base in the Kapisa region, a province northeast of Kabul. France was once one of the largest contributors to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, with a peak deployment of 4,000 troops. The Taliban did not fail to highlight the fact that their decision to attend the meeting in Paris was influenced by the French decision of withdrawing all their troops from Afghanistan which met their primary precondition for holding any talks. Hizb-e-Islami representative Ghairat Baheer, son-in-law of Gulbuldin Hekmatyar, too said that his militant group was attending the meeting in France because they admire the French government's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. 

Analysts believe that the French interest in Afghan reconciliation comes from the fact that France had in the past backed Jamiat-e Islami, a northern, Tajik-dominated faction and the broader Shura-e Nazar, sometimes known as the Northern Alliance."The French now realise that the Taliban will be have a stronger role in Afghanistan in days to come”. They would like the interests of the Jamiat-e Islami and Shura-e Nazar, secured in the future power equations. The only progress in this direction has been Taliban’s public admission of the need to talk to the opposition groups from the former Northern Alliance. 

The US was observing the Paris meeting and would like to see this interaction take the next step toward reconciliation in terms of the resumption of what was known as the “Doha process”. This would involve an exchange of detainees and the opening of a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar. US analysts strongly believe Taliban can be persuaded to “cut a deal’, which might lead to an eventual cease-fire in Afghanistan. Taliban leaders on the other hand are said to resist any compromise that might not show them as victors. Significantly, the US ambassador to Afghanistan James B. Cunninghum has said that Washington will never attend any peace talks with the Taliban group where Afghan government representative is not involved. He said in the context of the recent meeting between Obama and Karzai that , “The two leaders made clear that peace negotiations and reconciliation are vital for the two nations and they encourage the establishment of Taliban liaison office in Qatar so that the Afghan government and Taliban group can hold peace talks. The decision will finally depend on the Taliban group.”9 

Taliban Strategy

Some observers feel Taliban leadership is changing its stance on the Afghan war and peace negotiations.10 Prior to the Paris meeting it was said that the Taliban leadership were considering a change of strategy on a wide array of issues. Zabihullah, a senior Taliban leader in the Quetta Shura informed that they are reconsidering the peace talks, the hostility towards the former Northern Alliance, their rejection of the Afghan Constitution and even participating in the next presidential and National Assembly elections. The Taliban affinity for the predominantly ethnic Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara Northern Alliance was attributed to the fact that it is opposed to the Karzai government and in favour of an Islamic state. Zabihullah also said that the Taliban is willing to accept the Afghan Constitution and democratic elections with some changes to the electoral law; a view that was debunked at the Paris meeting.

One political analyst in Kabul, believes that the conflicting signals are because the Taliban leadership is in a real quandary about how to proceed and where it can make compromises acceptable to its own followers.“For the last 11 years, Taliban leaders have motivated their forces to carry on the fight by saying the country is under attack, its government is not Islamic, and God's religion is under threat,” he said. “While the war is framed in terms of religion, it also highly personalised because the Taliban ranks include people who have lost family members. “If foreign forces are still based in Afghanistan, the constitution remains unchanged and the movement has no substantial guarantees inside or outside the country, how can its leaders convince the rank-and-file? This will split the Taliban."11

Others take a more cynical view of the insurgents’ ability to make peace, regarding them as merely an instrument of Pakistan’s intelligence service. Afghan HPC saw the release on 31 December 2012 by Pakistan of eight Taliban members imprisoned by them as supportive of the peace negotiations and promoting stability in Afghanistan. However, many observers feel the Taliban are tired of fighting and want to end the war, but have been prevented from proceeding with peace talks by Pakistan which is pushing for a larger role in the region. The softer stance of Taliban is also viewed as a manipulation by Pakistan to influence the upcoming elections in Afghanistan.

Conclusion

The Paris meeting was meant to "pave the way for formal talks in the future." But some analysts believe that “the incentives for the Taliban to negotiate a deal just aren't there". The Afghan government’s plan to draw the Taliban to the table through the release of detainees seems more like a shot in the dark as there are no assurances that the freed detainees will help bring the Taliban leadership to the negotiating table. For that matter these released detainees might reorient the power structure within the Taliban and give ‘jihad’ a new purpose and direction.


End Notes

1. Rafi Sediqi. ‘Bona Fides of Taliban Representatives At Paris Meeting Unclear: MoFA’, Tolonews, 25 December 2012. http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/8852-bona-fides-of-taliban-repres...
2. Sajad. ‘ Afghanistan sets conditions for Taliban office in Qatar’, Khaama Press, January0 2, 2013.
   http://www.khaama.com/afghanistan-sets-conditions-for-taliban-office-in-...
3. Obama, Karzai endorse 'Taliban office,' agree to speed military transition’, January 11, 2013.
   http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/01/11/obama-and-afghan-president-ka...
4. ‘ Afghan Militants Freed by Government’, Associated Press, January 04, 2013.
   http://world.time.com/2013/01/04/afghan-militants-freed-by-government/
5. Afghan Government Releases Dozens Of Taliban Fighters, RFE/RL, January 04, 2013. http://www.rferl.org/content/afghan-government-releases-dozens-of-fighte...
6. Pakistan Pledges To Free All Afghan Taliban, RFE/RL, January 18, 2013.
   http://www.rferl.org/content/pakistan-says-free-all-afghan-taliban-priso...
7. Frud Bezhan. ‘Taliban Prisoner Releases Are High-Risk, Low-Reward’, RFE/RL, January 13, 2013.
   http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-taliban-release-strategy-high-r...
8. ‘Afghan Factions Meeting In France’, RFE/RL, December 19, 2012.
   http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-talks/24802681.html
9. Meena Haseeb . ‘Afghan peace talks pending Taliban agreement with Kabul’, Khaama Press, January 13, 2013.
   http://www.khaama.com/afghan-peace-talks-pending-taliban-agreement-with-...
10. Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai. ‘Afghanistan: Drastic Changes for the Taliban’, December 15, 2012. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/12/15/afghanistan-drastic-cha...
11. Mina Habib, Hafizullah Gardesh . ‘Kabul Officials in Face-to-Face Meeting with Taleban’, Afghanistan ARR Issue 446, 01 January 2013. http://iwpr.net/report-news/kabul-officials-face-face-meeting-taleban