Showing posts with label President Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label President Trump. Show all posts

Friday, January 12, 2018

Commentary: North Korea Takes Advantage of Flags of Convenience Regime

12 Jan, 2018  | Dr Vijay Sakhuja
Amid high decibel ‘verbal exchanges’ between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over latter’s nuclear ambition, the United Nations Security Council announced on 22 December 2017 new economic sanctions against Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The current sanctions, the ninth in the series since 2006, were pursuant to the recent intercontinental ballistic missile tests conducted by Pyongyang. These include limiting DPRK access to energy resources with ‘ban on condensates and natural gas liquids, a cap of 2 million barrels a year on refined petroleum products and a cap on crude oil exports to North Korea at current levels’.
The international shipping has in the past scrupulously adhered to UN sanctions and refrained from transporting embargoed goods to DPRK, barring a few vessels that were suspected of defying the sanctions. The US had also sought blacklisting of at least 10 vessels that are involved in illegally transferring oil at sea to be delivered to North Korean. These suspected vessels are flagged in Panama, Hong Kong and other registries including DPRK’s own register. Russian oil tankers were also suspected of providing ‘lifeline to the regime’ by engaging in ship-to-ship transfer at sea. The US put out satellite images of a North Korean ship trying to conduct a ship-to-ship transfer in October 2017, and President Donald Trump accused China ‘being caught red-handed selling oil to North Korea’.
The Panama Maritime Authority announced cancellation of registration of ship Koti operating under its flag (detained at a port in South Korea), and suspected of breaching the UN sanctions against North Korea. Another vessel, the Hong Kong flagged Lighthouse Winmore, also suspected of transferring refined petroleum products to the North Korean ship, the Sam Jong-2 in October 2017, was seized and remains in South Korea. Meanwhile, Taiwanese authorities brought before court a man ‘prosecutors allege to have made false declarations in the case of a Hong Kong-flagged tanker suspected of transferring oil to North Korea in violation of international sanctions’, but was later released on bail.
In the past, a number of North Korean vessels have been detained for carrying embargoed cargo. In fact, the country has a rich history of transporting illegally a variety of commodities ranging from drugs, small arms and weapons, oil and gas, missiles and even weapons of mass destruction. For instance, in 1999 the Indian authorities detained in the port of Kandla MV Ku Wol San, a North Korean vessel carrying Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) accessories bound for Pakistan/Libya. On August 6, 2009, the Indian Navy undertook VBSS (visit, board seize and search) operations in the Andaman Sea against a North Korean vessel in support of UN Security Council Resolution No. 1874 that ‘strengthens arms embargo, calls for inspection of cargo vessels if states have ‘reasonable grounds’ to believe contain prohibited items’.
The ongoing imbroglio over the ship-to-ship transfer at sea in breach of the UN sanctions against DPRK has brought to fore the weaknesses in the Flag of Convenience (FoC) regime, which has been under scrutiny by the law enforcement agencies and international community. Linking ‘a State’, ‘a ship’ and ‘a flag’ is an age old practice and documented in antiquity. It helps to determine who owns the vessel, or has jurisdiction over it, and therefore empowered to prosecute it in case it is engaged in any illegal activity, or defend its operations in case national interests are in jeopardy.
As with any commercial enterprise, international shipping is market driven and therefore competitive. The primary aim of any shipping company is to enhance fiscal advantage, maximise revenue, and minimise costs. Ship owners’ carefully choose register for their ships and hence fly that country’s flag. In essence, economics is the decisive factor that will determine the flag a ship flies. Likewise, it is a win-win situation for the FoC registries. This practice generates revenue for the flag state in the form of fees, transactions and services provided to the ships seeking registration. These funds are critical for the flag state and bring in significant income. This widespread phenomenon has resulted in larger percentage of the world fleet under the FoC when compared with the traditional maritime countries themselves.
Since the last century, the practice of ‘closed registers’ witnessed changes due to stringent domestic manning regulations, restrictive taxation regime, and other commercial considerations in home countries. Panama was the first to set up an ‘open register’ in 1916, and by 1950 there were more open registers and accounted for nearly 4 per cent of the world’s fleet. In the mid-1980s, the share of FoC in international shipping registration increased to over 30 per cent and by 2009, nearly 73 per cent of the global merchant fleet was under open registers. According to 2017 UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, today more than 70 per cent of the commercial international fleet is flagged out and registered under a different flag from the country of ownership.
Interestingly, there are agencies which specialize in helping shipping companies to obtain FoC registries, For them it is a business model, and according to ‘ship solutions’, an agency which specializes in such a venture since 2010, they help shipping companies and owners to register or reflag ships. The agency enables ‘ship managers to streamline their operations during peak times and leave the registration of the vessels to us … to keep overheads to a minimum and thus … offer a very competitive price and can perform jobs of any size within a tight timescale’.
It is a fact that States operate FoC registry to ‘earn a great deal of money, usually from registration and maintenance fees and taxes, from the ships in its registries, but expend very little money to ensure that such ships meet international standards’. Further, FoC offers numerous opportunities to devious ship owners to “hide so long as they pay the requisite registration fees and tonnage taxes, leading to dangerous consequences, such as the funding of terrorist activities and lack of liability for substandard ships sailing the high seas”.
In the case of DPRK, it has skillfully used the FoC regime and engaged in maritime commerce violating various UN sanctions. Of particular interest is Ocean Maritime Management (OMM) Limited, a shipping company with operations in at least 10 countries, has a dubious record of engaging in illegal activities at sea. The company has taken advantage of the FoC regime and been renaming its vessels. For instance, it has not only renamed as many as 13 of its 14 vessel , but also transferred the ownership to shell companies. This is perhaps a clever way to, reflag the vessels and thus ‘effectively erase’ these vessels from the ‘blacklist’, ‘a strategy to evade assets freezes’ by the international community. For instance, the U.N. Security Council’s Panel of Experts on North Korea, that monitors implementation of sanctions on Pyongyang, blacklisted OMM for ‘arranging an illegal shipment on the Chong Chon Gang ship, which was seized in Panama and found to be carrying arms, including two MiG-21 jet fighters, hidden under thousands of tons of Cuban sugar’. However, the company was not deterred and OMM evaded ‘sanctions by changing the registration and ownership of vessels’ to a shell company.
Some DPRK flagged vessels have been intercepted while carrying military cargo bound other States. For instance, in December 2002, So San, a North Korean vessel carrying fifteen Scud missiles hidden under cement bags and bound was Yemen intercepted by a Spanish frigate and a support vessel Patino in the Indian Ocean. The vessel was allowed to proceed to its destination after the Yemen government announced that the consignment was bound for it and it has been argued that ‘there was no provision under international law prohibiting Yemen from accepting delivery of missiles from North Korea’. Similarly, in 2016, one of the OMM ships was apprehended for carrying imported weapons from Cuba, but authorities ‘in Havana admitted being behind the stash, saying they were Soviet-era arms from Cuba headed for repair in North Korea’.
Given the complexity of the political economy of merchant shipping and its close relationship with global economy, the FoC system has the potential of being a major challenge for the safety of ships, national security in general, and maritime security in particular. International law (1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas, Articles 90, 91, 92, 94 and 110; United Nations Convention on Conditions for Registration of Ships; Convention on the International Maritime Organization) and national legislations stipulate the mandatory requirement of a genuine link between ship and flag state. This is so due to the need for ‘an absolute minimum entity’ which can be made responsible for the ‘actions of the ship owner and on which penalties of adequate severity can be levied so as to discourage violations of applicable international minimum standards’ wherever they occur.
While that may be necessary, North Korea has blatantly yet cleverly, contravened international law and successfully defied UN sanctions. In the future too, it can continue to marshal its national shipping fleet as also other FoC vessels to conduct illegal commerce and clandestinely obtain embargoed goods from the international market. It is fair to state that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is not perturbed by UN sanctions and DPRK will continue flagrant violation of sanctions.
(Dr Vijay Sakhuja is former Director National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi)
(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Commentary: President Trump and Jerusalem

4 Jan, 2018 | Amb K P Fabian

President Trump’s decision announced on 6th December 2017 to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to order the transfer of US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem reminds one of the 1917 Balfour Declaration that paved the way for the establishment of the State of Israel. Trump has ignored the claims of Palestinians to have their capital in East Jerusalem. He has violated seven UN Security Council resolutions starting with the first one in 1980 when Israel proclaimed the Basic Jerusalem Law asserting that Jerusalem was its ‘eternal and undivided capital’.
The Balfour Declaration ignored the political rights of the Palestinians in what was till then known as Palestine when he said that ‘nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious right of the existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.” The choice of the words “non-Jewish communities” to refer to the Palestinians who were in a majority then was part of the Zionist project to deny the existence of Palestinians as a people.
The Background
It is true that Trump was fulfilling one of the promises he had made as a candidate when he made this decision. But, he is not the first President who had made such a promise. For good and sufficient reasons, previous Presidents have signed a waiver twice a year to give more time to the State Department to act on a Congressional resolution of 1995 that required the move of the Embassy. It has been reported that Secretary of State Tillerson and Defense Secretary General Mattis had opposed the decision that Trump took in his hallmark CEO style.
Trump has clarified that he still supported a “two-state solution if the two parties can agree on it” and that his decision does not in any way prejudice the determination of the boundaries. Neither the Palestinians nor the rest of the world finds the clarification convincing.
Let us look at the background to the 6th December announcement. Within two days of his taking over as President on 20th January 2017, Trump appointed son-in-law Jared Corey Kushner, 37, as Senior Adviser to the President. Authorized by the President to conduct negotiations with Israel, Palestinian Authority, and others to work out a settlement to the vexed dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, Kushner has been traveling in the region since August 2017.He has spent time with the Saudi Crown Prince Mahmud bin Salman, 32, with whom he has established close personal relations. Both lack international diplomatic experience. They consider themselves to be creative minds able and willing to transcend the ossified thinking of older leaders.
The New York Times (3rd December 2017) carried a story that the Saudi Crown Prince had summoned the Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas to brief him about the outlines of a settlement and seek his acceptance. According to persons claiming to know what transpired, there will be a Palestine without full sovereignty, holding discontinuous patches of territory, without East Jerusalem as capital; Abbas was offered substantial financial incentives to the new entity and perhaps even to himself personally.
Arab sources have confirmed the New York Times report. On 7th November Mahmoud Abbas was given the outlines of a settlement previously agreed to between Kushner and the Crown Prince and Abbas was given the ‘option’ to resign if he did not agree. It is curious that Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri summoned from Beirut did announce his resignation in Riyadh on 4th November. In his speech Hariri threatened Iran that its ‘hands will be cut off’, a phrase that those who know him believe was not in his style.
On 18th November the Palestinian mission in Washington was warned that it would be closed if the Palestinian authority did not seriously engage in the ‘peace process’. Curiously enough, it was a reference in Mahmud Abbas’s speech in the UN General Assembly (UNGA) made in September 2017 about taking Israel to the International Criminal Court that was given as reason. Saeb Erekat, a top Palestinian official, responded that if the mission is closed they would stop accepting US mediation. There were signals that the move to close the mission has been reversed. However, a sword of Damocles does hang over the mission.
On 5th December, the US House of Representatives unanimously passed The Taylor Force Act stipulating that funds to the Palestinian Authority would be cut off from 2018 to 2024 if it pays salaries to the families of militant Palestinians killed or convicted by Israel. Taylor was a former army officer killed in Israel in 2016 while travelling.
We may tentatively conclude that Trump put pressure on Mahmud Abbas to accept the terms offered and was waiting for his acceptance before making any announcement. In the event, Abbas stood firm and Trump went ahead with his announcement.
Diplomatic Isolation of the US
Whether US had anticipated it or not, its isolation was almost total. In the 15-member Security Council, US had to use its veto as the rest 14 voted for a resolution that declared as “null and void” any decision to establish an embassy in Jerusalem. In the General Assembly, only seven voted with US and Israel (Guatemala, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, and Togo). The seven have a total population of 34.7 million. US Permanent Representative Nikki Haley had publicly threatened member-states and the number of abstentions and absentees, 56 in all, shows that the threat worked with some member-states.
Whether Kushner had a promise of support from the Crown Prince or not, King Salman, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, had no option but to come out opposing the Trump move. The Arab League and the OIC (Organization of Islamic Conference) expressed strong opposition. However, it is learnt that even in the Arab League there were differing views. Some, including Saudi Arabia, did not want to be too harsh on Trump.
The response from the street has been loud and clear. The street protests have not been confined to the Arab world. In Indonesia and Malaysia, where the Prime Minister Najeb Rezak himself led, there have been huge protests. In Gaza, the death toll is 16.
India’s Response
India stuck to its principled stand that the status of Jerusalem should be decided by agreement between the two parties and therefore voted for the UNGA resolution. Prime Minister Netanyahu is due for a visit shortly. Prime Minister Modi might go to Ramallah soon.
What Next?
The calculation of the White House is that the protests will not be sustained; Saudi Arabia is on board; the PLO can be pressurized to accept a less than sovereign entity. A small part of Eastern Jerusalem might satisfy the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), badly dependent on financial support from Saudi Arabia and others as it is. For Saudi Arabia it is more important to get Israel’s support in confronting Iran than in fighting for the Palestinians.
While it may be reasonably certain that the Saudi Crown Prince had endorsed the Kushner Plan in their talks, it does not follow that Saudi Arabia can openly support Trump on Jerusalem. The Trump decision can come in the way of a Saudi-Israel alliance against Israel. The Crown Prince has been publicly invited to visit Israel. The intelligence cooperation between the countries is getting intensified. A visit to Israel by the Crown Prince will have to wait.
While the Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia might agree with the assessment of the White House as given above, it is important to note that Jerusalem is not a purely Palestinian issue. It is from Jerusalem that the Prophet is supposed to have ascended to heaven and for the 1.5 billion Muslims it will be difficult to accept Israeli sovereignty over that holy city. Jerusalem is holy for Christians too. The 1947 UN plan had correctly envisaged an international status for the city.
Mahmoud Abbas has said that US can no longer act as an impartial intermediary. He is right, but it is doubtful whether US ever was an impartial intermediary. John Mearsheimer in his 2007 book The Israeli Lobby and US Foreign Policy has conclusively proved that Israel practically controls US policy to the region. Hence, there was no way that US could be impartial.
The Muslim Brotherhood that started to decline after the military coup of 2003 that overthrew Morsi will politically gain from the Trump move. In Jordan the Brotherhood took the lead in the protests and these protests were the biggest in ten years. Apart from the Brotherhood, the Islamic State will also find it easier to get fresh recruits. IS has lost almost all territory in Iraq/Syria, but as an ideology it remains attractive to some young people across the world. The Palestinians might start an intifada and Abbas might lose his position. Polls suggest that the Hamas leader Ismail Haney has 53 percent support as against 41 percent for Abbas.
Future developments will depend on the resistance to the US move on the part of the Islamic world, the course of Saudi-Iran confrontation, and Israel’s own long-term agenda including the project for a Greater Israel. The geopolitical sky is clouded, and dangerous thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
(Amb K P Fabian is a retired IFS Officer and a highly regarded expert on West Asia.)
(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)