China Strengthens its Missile Defence Capabilities: Implications for India

Brig (retd) Vinod Anand 

(Senior Fellow, VIF)

China conducted another ground-based mid-course missile-defence (GMD) test in January end to signify its increasing potential in missile interception capabilities. This test builds upon an earlier test in January 2010 which was again carried out to test its evolving capabilities in missile defence technologies. For long China has been opposed to the U.S developing its missile defence system as it undermines China’s strategic deterrence; American argument that the US missile defence systems are designed to deal with missile threats from rogue nations like North Korea and Iran does not carry much credibility with either China or Russia. Chinese spokesmen also emphasise that these tests are only technology demonstrators and have not been conducted with a view to build a missile defence system and they are not targeted against any country. The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the test was defensive and was conducted over Chinese territory.

While China took strong positions on the ABM treaty and attempts to develop BMD systems, China was never lax on the potential of and requirement for BMD systems. The earliest Chinese effort to indigenously develop a BMD system was initiated in 1969 but the project was terminated during the 1980s after the 1972 ABM treaty between the US and erstwhile USSR. China launched Project 863 (in March 1986) which included research on missile interception technologies. However, China’s interest in continuing development of BMD systems received fresh impetus after US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 and developments in Taiwan.

On 11 January 2007, China surprised the entire world by successfully testing a direct ascent Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon. It was assessed that the ASAT system employed a KT-1 space launch vehicle (SLV), itself a modified DF-21 medium range ballistic missile (MRBM). The missile destroyed an ageing Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) polar orbit satellite at approximately 865 kms above the earth’s surface through kinetic impact. The test drew widespread condemnation, both for the manner in which it was carried out (resulting in a large amount of space debris, a major threat to low earth orbit satellites) and the major shift in China’s position concerning weaponization of space.

According to a classified State Department cable that was made public by WikiLeaks, the January 2010 test had used an SC-19 missile as interceptor to strike the CSS-X-11 medium range target missile launched near-simultaneously. The SC-19 is said to have also been used in China’s anti-satellite test of January 2007 and both the January 2010 and January 2013 GMD tests are seen as also advancing China’s capabilities in ASAT weapons’ domain. Despite the WikiLeaks report there is not much clarity about the exact type of the missile used for January 2010 test though it could be an advanced/modified version of SC-19; some analysts think that the missile used in the test was a HQ-9, HQ-12, or DF-21 variant. Similarly, while the test in January this year apparently achieved its expected results, the exact missile used has not been confirmed.

In any case and as underscored by some of the Chinese analysts, China’s GMD tests have demonstrated significant progress by China in the development of "hit-to-kill," rapid precision-strike, guided and missile identification technologies.

While development of advanced BMD capabilities by other countries has implications for the effectiveness of China’s strategic deterrence the development of same capabilities by China largely has implications for India’s evolving strategic deterrence against China. Large number of missiles held by Russia and the U.S combined with extended strategic deterrence provided to the US alliance partners in East Asia make China’s missile defence capabilities less relevant to them. Saturation missile strikes launched by an attacker with a combination of manoeuvering re-entry vehicles (MaRV), multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRV) with warheads interspersed with decoys and other counter measures would allow some warheads to get through the BMD to cause unacceptable damage to the defender. During modeling and simulation tests it has been shown that BMD could be only effective against a limited number of missiles or warheads thus the claims by the U.S. that their BMD is meant for countries like North Korea and Iran.

After the January 2010 Ground-based Midcourse missile defence (GMD) test by China, some analysts suggested that it could also be a message to India in response to India’s continued testing of the Agni-III and an eagerness to develop the Agni-V ICBM, whose logical targets could only be in China. The second GMD test in January 2013 has come after India’s AGNI V test of April 2012 which could be partly seen as a response to India’s increasing capabilities in the missile field. Chinese media had even suggested that India has under-reported the range of Agni V. Further, there is also some speculation that India is developing AGNI VI with a longer but as yet unspecified range. Though prominent Chinese officials have publicly downplayed or discounted any credible strategic missile threat from India yet they have continued to strengthen their missile defence capabilities.

Apart from the GMD system in development China has placed considerable reliance on BMD of critical target systems that cover not only the Second Artillery force structure but also value targets like Beijing and Shanghai. It is producing under license the Russian S-300PMU-2/S-300PMU-1 series of SAMs that have an ABM capability. It also produces the indigenous HQ-9 SAM system and the HQ-19 system that has been jointly developed with Russia. Both these systems possess some ABM capabilities. A new generation of anti-ballistic and anti-satellite missiles called the KT-1, KT-409, KT-2, KT-2A, KT-3, and other KT versions are in development.

The PLA Navy has modern air-defence destroyers in the Type 052C Destroyer and Type 051C Destroyer. There are reports that China is in the process of developing HQ-26 like missile for PLAN which has technology similar to the US Navy’s Standard Missile -3 (SM-3) interceptor that is part of their Aegis Destroyer’s mid-course BMD system. The PLAN destroyers are presently equipped with naval HQ-9 air defence missile which has the same technology as Russian S-300 system. However, in future Chinese destroyers could be equipped with HQ-26 so as to give them comparable ABM capabilities with the US Aegis class destroyers. Thus, it can be seen that China has embarked on a comprehensive missile defence strategy.

Added to the above is China’s emphasis on developing cruise missiles with longer ranges and improved precision. The low flying Cruise missiles are able to avoid the BMD detection systems and can thus defeat such systems except that they have shorter ranges compared to the MRBMs and IRBMs.

Further, the new political leadership in China has been paying special attention to PLA Second Artillery Corps. After having taken over as Chairman of the Central Military Commission in November2012, Xi Jinping during his visit to Second Artillery Corps observed that “the artillery force is the core strength of China's strategic deterrence, the strategic support for the country's status as a major power, and an important cornerstone safeguarding national security”. Thus, the new leadership in China would continue to underscore the importance it attaches to upgrade its missile forces. PLA has been modernizing its short range ballistic missile force by consistently fielding advanced variants with improved ranges and payloads. China’s capabilities in both short and medium range ballistic missiles have improved both in qualitative and quantitative terms.

More ballistic missiles China has more it would be able to defeat any missile defence system that is already in place in the region or that might come up in the future. A variety of missiles combined with PLA’s increasing space-based capabilities and acumen in cyber warfare would give it tremendous advantage in what it calls ‘local war in conditions of informatisation’. And the Indo-Tibetan border remains an area where China may embark on such a venture.

So far as India is concerned there is a need to pay more attention to China’s missile-centric strategies. Without doubt India’s ballistic missile attack capability at long ranges needs an urgent upgrade. As numbers above a certain threshold will ensure that India always has the ability to pierce a thin BMD or a TMD deployed by China, India should work towards improving the quality, quantity and a variety of both its ballistic and cruise missiles. The recent testing of a subsurface-launched ballistic missile (K-15) with about 750 kilometers range is a step in the right direction.

Further, MIRV technology can be developed with much lower political risks and greater payoffs. DRDO seems to be working on MIRV technologies and hopefully it will acquire and demonstrate the capability for MIRVs in next one to two years. At the same time India should pay equal attention to improving its BMD capabilities. While working towards providing lower tier terminal defence to key counter-force targets India should also be working to provide BMD to a limited number of counter value targets. BMD being somewhat expensive proposition, protection to counter value targets may have to be linked with availability of funds and a phased approach would have to be adopted.

But Deterrence Means Possession with Political Will

Lt. Col. (retd.) Anil Bhat

Five months after India’s successful test launch of the 3,500 km range Agni-IV ballistic missile, the well over 5000 kms range Agni-V was successfully test fired at 08:07 hours on 19 April 2012 from the Wheeler’s Island , Odisha.

Planned for a night launch on the evening of 18 April, but postponed owing to bad weather, the missile, according to Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) was flawlessly auto-launched the next morning, rising exactly the way it was designed for. It followed the entire trajectory in DRDO’s favourite phrase “in textbook fashion” with the three stages of propulsion dropping and falling at appropriate times into Bay of Bengal. The three propulsion stages, developed completely indigenously by DRDO, performed exactly the way they were intended to and the indigenously developed Composite Rocket Motors have performed well. All the radars and electro-optical systems along the path monitored all the parameters of the missile and displayed in real time. Ships located in midrange and at the target point tracked the missile’s flight.

Lot of new technologies developed indigenously were successfully tested in this Agni-V Mission. The redundant navigation systems, very high accuracy Ring Laser Gyro based Inertial Navigation System (RINS) and the most modern and accurate Micro Navigation System (MINS) ensured the missile reach the target point within few meters of accuracy. The high speed onboard computer and fault tolerant software along with robust and reliable bus guided the missile flawlessly.

“DRDO Scientists have made the country proud” said Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh while speaking to Dr V.K. Saraswat, the Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister and Programme Director Avinash Chander and congratulated all the Scientists of DRDO. Defence Minister A.K. Antony was monitoring the launch activities and immediately after successful flight, congratulated all the Scientists on this much awaited event. National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon congratulated DRDO Scientists and said that the event is a milestone in the long range Missile era of India. Air Marshal K.J. Mathews, C-in-C Strategic Forces Command, who witnessed the launch, said that the success of AGNI-V is historical event for India.

Agni-V is a solid fuelled long range ballistic missile developed by DRDO and will greatly extend India’s reach to strike targets well beyond 5,500 km. It will be quite easy to store and swiftly transport the missile by road since it's a canister-launch missile system, unlike the earlier Agni missiles. Agni-V would also carry MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) payloads being concurrently developed. A single MIRV equipped missile can deliver multiple warheads at different targets. With a ‘launch mass’ of around 50 tonnes and a development cost of over Rs 2,500 crore, Agni-V will incorporate advanced technologies involving ring laser gyroscope and accelerometer for navigation and guidance. It takes its first stage from Agni-III, with a modified second stage and a miniaturised third stage to ensure it can fly to distances of 5,000 km. With a canister-launch system to impart higher road mobility, the missile will give the armed forces much greater operational flexibility than the earlier-generation of Agni missiles. According to a source, the accuracy levels of Agni-V and the 3,500-km Agni-IV (first tested in November 2011), with their better guidance and navigation systems, are far higher than Agni-I (700-km), Agni-II (2,000-km) and Agni-III (3,000-km).

Chinese media controlled by the Communist Party of China was full of this news. While a section of it did not consider it significant, the Global Times, a one of the prominent Chinese newspaper cites Agni-V launch just as an addition to promote the arm race in Asia and warned India not to compete with China. Global Times is the Chinese newspaper that publishes views on the behalf of Communist Party of China. Chinese diplomats, however, did not give any such sharp reaction to the test. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin, stated that India and China are both emerging countries and expressed hopes that both the countries work together to maintain a peaceful environment. However, nestled within the response, Liu included a subtle reference to the conflict, saying ‘we should both cherish the fact that our current good relations were hard to come by.’ However, the fact remains that China’s periodic outbursts, claims, incursions, activities, postures etc on the ground in Arunachal Pradesh and other parts of the Line of Actual Control and most importantly, its very substantial nuclear arsenal, its strong military ties with Pakistan in conventional and nuclear fields and its deployment of a division strength of troops in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is far from reassuring.

By this successful test of Agni-V, now India has joined the elite club of countries with the United States, Russia, and China. While it is a commendable achievement in for India in developing the technology, it will amount to strategic deterrence only after production and deployment.

On countries pontificating about India’s nuclear tests leading to or adding to an arms race in the subcontinent, it needs to be clarified that India as one of the greatest votaries of non-nuclearisation was left with no choice but to nuclearise in view of Pakistan’s and China’s nuclear programmes. And in any case, who are the original proliferators of nuclear weapons creating conditions for mutually assured destruction? Which is the country that actually started this race and which is the country to have actually launched a nuclear attack?

Although unconfirmed, most Western analysts believe China has deployed anywhere from 18 to 36 Dongfeng 5 (East Wind) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) since the 1980s. The Dongfeng 5A is a single-warhead, three-stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range of over 13,000 km. In 2000, General Eugene Habiger of the U.S. Air Force, then commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, testified before Congress that China has 18 silo-based DF-5s. Since the early 21st century, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Second Artillery Corps also deployed up to 10 solid-fueled mobile DF-31 ICBMs, with a range of 7,200+ km and possibly up to 3 MIRVs. China has also developed the DF-31A, an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 11,200+ km with possibly 3-6 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability. China reportedly stores many of its missiles in huge underground tunnel complexes. US Representative Michael Turner referring to 2009 Chinese media reports said “This network of tunnels could be in excess of 5,000 kilometers (3,110 miles), and is used to transport nuclear weapons and forces.” he Chinese Army newsletter calls this tunnel system an underground Great Wall of China. Approximately 55 percent of China’s missiles are in the medium range category, targeted at regional theater targets. The Chinese categorize long range ballistic missiles as ones with a range between 3000 to 8000 km.

The use of rockets and missiles by Indians dates back to 18th century, i.e. during the period of ruler Hyder Ali and Tipu Sultan. They used rocket artillery brigades against infantry formations for mass attacks. The rocket men were trained to launch the rockets at a launch angle which was calculated from the diameter of the cylinder and the distance of the target. The launchers were having the capability to launch 5-10 rockets in salvo firing mode. Tipu Sultan had 27 brigades and each brigade had a company of rocket men. With such a huge force, he defended the Mysore kingdom against the British until his death at Srirangapatnam in 1799. Even, Marathas used the rockets at the Battle of Panipat in 1761. With the death of Tipu Sultan, Indian rocketry also met its demise, only to be revived in the 1970s by Drs. Vikram Sarabhai, APJ Abdul Kalam, and others. Two of the rockets, captured by the British at Srirangapatnam, are displayed in the Royal Artillery Museum in London.

Defence Science Organization, formed in 1956 for initiating studies & development of work on futuristic weapon systems was headed by Dr. B. N. Singh who formed the Special Weapon Development Team (SWDT) study and development of guided missiles. At Metcalfe House, Delhi the Team worked on a 1st generation Anti-Tank Missile (ATM) for gaining developmental experience. SWDT became Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL) at old Ahmed Manzil, Hyderabad, in June 1962 under Gp. Capt. V Ganesan its Director. A project formulated at DRDL in 1964 got support of Army after the 1965 Indo-Pak war and got converted to a “Staff Project”, which tested an indigenously developed anti – tank missile in 1970, considered as a major achievement by DRDL, which later moved to the Defence Research Complex at Kanchanbagh, on the periphery of Hyderabad's Old City. Some scientists and Army, Navy and Air Force officers developed the DEVIL missile.

All the preliminary understanding and development of Electronics sub-systems of DEVIL missile including Airframe and Aerodynamics were carried out at Ahmed Manzil. Leading scientists like Mr.Burman, Mr. JC Bhattacharya, Admiral Mohan and Mr. Surya Kantha Rao gave thrust to Electronics, Navigation, Guidance & Control and Telemetry & Instrumentation areas. Dr. Ranga Rao, Dr. Rama Rao, Dr. Bala Krishnan, Mr. Krishnan, and Dr.Achyuthan gave priority to Airframe, structures, Aerodynamic and system related areas. This was further strengthened by the techno-managerial leadership of Lt.Gen.(Retd) Dr. VJ Sundaram, Lt.Gen.R.Swaminathan and Squadron Leader Shah in the area of airframe controls and integration.

Rocket Test House (RTH, Presently near Kanchanbagh) was identified for carrying out propulsion related design and tests. The liquid and solid propulsion areas were continuing with vibrant leadership of Dr. Gopal Swamy and Wg. Cdr. Sen. Re-entry technology and ballistic missile programmes were spearheaded by Shri R.N. Agarwal. The state-of-the-gyro test facility was initiated by Mr. P. Banerjee within the campus. However, the whole facility of Ahmed Manzil was shifted near Kanchanbagh in 1975. Full scale missile laboratory (DRDL) was built up from then onwards.

The Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) under India’s Defence Ministry, began since early 1980s for the development of a comprehensive range of missiles, including the intermediate range Agni missile (Surface to Surface), and short range missiles such as the Prithvi ballistic missile (Surface to Surface), Sagarika, the naval version of the Prithvi, Akash missile (Surface to Air), Astra missile (Air to Air), Trishul missile (Surface to Air), Nag Missile (Anti Tank) and also an inter-continental-ballistic-missile (codenamed Surya missile) with a range of 8,000-12,000 km. Managed by DRDO in partnership with other Indian government labs and research centres, one of the most prominent chief engineers on the project, Dr. Abdul Kalam went on to become the President of India.

In 1998, the Government of India, signed an agreement with Russia to design, develop, manufacture and market BrahMos (Brahmaputra –Moscow rivers), a Supersonic Cruise Missile System that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or land, which was successfully accomplished by 2006. At speeds of Mach 2.5 to 2.8, it is the world's fastest cruise missile, about three and a half times faster than the American subsonic Harpoon cruise missile. BrahMos is reportedly attempting a hypersonic Mach 8 version of the missile, BrahMos II, the first ever hypersonic cruise missile, expected to be ready by 2012-13.

While India must forge ahead with production of its missiles, it must not neglect regaining and maintaining its edge in conventional weapons, on which it is at an all time low. Further, India must also shake out of its known mode of a soft state and strive to develop the political will to acquire the requisite level of force and send the message that it will effectively be used.