Updates on Nepalese Elections

Prof Hari Bansh Jha

6 Dec, 2017

In the process of implementing the most controversial constitution promulgated on September 20, 2015, Nepal government completed local level elections for the 753 Village Councils/municipalities between May and September this year in three phases. Recently, it completed the first phase of provincial and parliamentary elections on November 26 and the next phase of elections are due on December 7.

In the first phase of the parliamentary and provincial polls conducted in 32 districts on November 26, there were 37 seats for the federal parliament and 74 seats for provincial assemblies. The first phase of polling on November 26 was by and large peaceful though there were, according to media reports, nearly 100 minor incidents. According to the Election Commission, voter turnout was around 65 percent.

The second phase of the elections on December 7, will cover 45 districts in which there are 128 federal parliament seats and 256 provincial seats. Of the 90 political parties registered with the Election Commission (EC), 48 parties are contesting elections for the federal parliament seats; while 53 parties are contesting elections for the provincial assemblies.

In the 275-member House of Representatives, the Lower House of Parliament, 165 members will be elected on First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) basis; while 110 members will be elected on proportional representation (PR) basis. Similarly, in the Provincial assemblies, there are 550 seats in which 330 candidates will be elected on FPTP and 220 candidates on PR basis. Most importantly, women form 55 percent of the total federal and provincial PR candidates. ¹ Political observers find this a welcome development in terms of enabling greater empowerment of women in the political process which no country in the region has been able to even aim for, much less achieve.

The elections for the 59 member-National Assembly, the Upper House of Parliament, will be held indirectly by the chairpersons/deputy chairpersons, mayors/deputy mayors, provincial assembly members and federal parliament members after the completion of provincial and federal parliament elections.

Among the contestants of federal election PR candidates, 30.93 percent candidates are from the Khas-Arya group followed by indigenous nationalities (28.82 percent), Tharus (6.64 percent), Dalits (13.86 percent), Madheshis (15.62 percent) and Muslims (4.14 percent). Similarly, among the candidates for provincial elections, 30.55 percent candidates are from Khas-Arya group followed by indigenous nationalities (27.88 percent), Tharus (7.1 percent), Dalits (13.46 percent), Madheshis (17.31 percent) and Muslims (3.7 percent). ²

Table No. 1 indicates that Province No. 3 has the largest number of Federal Parliament/Provincial Assembly seats (20 percent); while Province No. 6 has the smallest number of seats (7 percent). Next to Province No. 3, Province No. 2 that has predominantly Madheshi population has 19 percent seats, followed by Province No. 1 (17 percent) seats, Province No. 5 (16 percent) seats, and Province No. 7 (10 percent) seats.

Source: Al Jazeera - http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2017/11/nepal-elections-2017-explained-171126103009857.html

However, nearly half of the total electorate out of 14 million, was excluded from exercising their voting rights in the local elections.³ Around five million Nepalese working in the Gulf and other parts of the world were debarred from voting in the elections. Also, excluded from voting were the 700,000 government employees in the country. This has been adversely commented upon by political observers as a serious lacuna in the election process that, to an extent, makes the exercise less representative in character. EC will have to eventually find a way out of this in the future.

Significantly, a recent study shows that the elections in Nepal are eventually going to be the most costly affair in terms of money spent per elected candidate. During the local level polls, Rs. 5,000 was spent per voter in the country. This calculation is based on the figure that Rs. 69.42 billion was spent during the three phases of the elections in May, June and September 2017 in which the number of voters was 14.1 million.⁴ This includes all the expenditures made by the state, the candidates, the EC, the security agencies and different poll observer groups. Of the total expenditures made on the elections, 63 percent of the amount was spent by the candidates.

Violation of the election cost of conduct has become a common affair. Most of the candidates contesting the elections for the local units, provincial and federal parliament have been spending money far beyond the limit fixed by the EC. There are also reports that the government has also violated the code of conduct as appointments, transfers and promotions for key positions were rampant in the wake of the elections.

Amongst all the major political parties in the country, Madhesh-based Rashtriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) is only one that has raised the issue of rights for the deprived communities like the Madheshis, Tharus and Janajatis. All other political parties, including the main players like the Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal–Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC) have confined themselves to developmental issues, ignoring the aspirations of the rights-related issues of the deprived groups.

On the issue of foreign relations, the ruling Nepali Congress Party leaders during their election campaign have been professing maintainance of balance in relations with India and China. However, leaders of the Left Alliance comprising the CPN-UML and the CPN-MC often projected anti-India and pro-China stand. ⁵ Both the CPN-UML and the CPN-MC want so-called unequal treaties with India such as the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship to be abolished. However, the Madhesh-based RJPN is not in favour of any change in maintaining special relations with India.

Not much attention has been given on educating the voters, particularly in the remote regions of the country.⁶ Even the 123 foreign election observers who are here in Nepal to assess the polls are interested more in extending their stay in the country till the formation of next government rather than focusing on such issue.⁷

Of late, some election observers from the European Union countries have courted controversy as they are perceived to be engaged in monitoring provincial and parliamentary polls acting beyond their jurisdiction/mandate. Therefore, the EC has called back two of its observers, including Lars-Goeran Plagmanand Eva Suhonen from Kanchanpur district. Immediately afterwards, the British organization, Department for International Development (DFID), has also come into controversy. Currently, four international organizations, including the Carter Centre, the European Union, Asian Network for Free Elections and Peru-based Ankawa International have been allowed to monitor polls.⁸

Anti-election activities by certain unidentified groups are being conducted on a large scale in the country. Cases of frequent clashes, particularly between the ‘left alliance’ and ‘democratic alliance’ forces during the political campaigns are common. ⁹ A number of senior leaders of both the left and democratic fronts have been targeted with bomb attacks both in the Terai and hill districts in which many people were injured. Because of such violent activities, many of the voters and also those involved in polls campaigns are scared. There had not been polls-related violence of such magnitude in the country in the past.¹⁰Therefore, the law enforcement agencies have been experiencing severe challenges to control the situation.

Despite the inbuilt challenges in carrying out electoral exercise at such a massive scale in a country with little or no experience in participative democracy, the elections are likely to be completed in Nepal in a peaceful manner and within the given time frame. As such, there will be no major hurdle in the formation of a new government as mandated by the new constitution except in the likely event of the voters throwing up a bitterly fractured mandate. If that were to happen, Nepal will once again witness the familiar game of alliances and realignments leading to continued political instability as has been the case right from the time the first CA was formed and which continued in the second CA as well.

However, a question of greater concern for the nascent democracy will be whether the election process will be able to sow seeds of strong and stable democracy in the country to make the process of people’s representation inclusive and equitable. Already a view prevails that the system chalked out does not adequately addresses the concerns of the deprived and marginalized sections of the population, including the Madheshis, Tharus and other Janajati groups, in regard to the formation of federals states, population-based elections, inclusivity and citizenship related issues are yet to be addressed in the constitution.

This will have to be taken up by the governments that are formed in the aftermath of the completion of the electoral process. The issues that had been raised by different sections of the population after the promulgation of the new constitution should not be forgotten, even though the task of nation building, economic management, developmental activities and above all completing the task of relief and rehabilitation to the victims of the devastating earthquake of 2014 will assume primacy.

(Dr. Jha is Executive Director of Centre for Economic and Technical Studies in Nepal)

Endnotes

1. Ibid.
2. Post Report, “Women account for 55pc of total PR candidates,” The Kathmandu Post, Kathmandu: November 20, 2017.
3. Ghimire, Yubraj, “Next Door Nepal: Much ado about nothing,” The Indian Express, November 27, 2017.
4. Shrestha, Prithvi and Ghimire, Binod, “Elections becoming ‘unnaturally expensive,” The Kathmandu Post, November 18, 2017.
5. Ghimire, no. 1.
6. Pradhan, Tika R, “EC helpless against poll code violators: Ovservers,” The Kathamndu Post, Kathmandu: November 25, 2017.
7. Ghimire, no. 1.
8. Himalayan News Service, “Two European Union observers barred from monitoring polls,” The Himalayan Times, Kathmandu: November 25, 2017.
9. Post Report, “Parties clash in different districts ahead of polls,” The Kathmandu Post, Kathmandu: November 25, 2017.
10. Sedhai, Roshan, “With more attacks, anxiety over poll security grows,” My Republica, Kathmandu: November 19, 2017.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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Image Source: http://www.forevernews.in/nepal-polls-vote-count-underway-75026

कश्मीर – सामने आया नया मौका

C D Sahay, Dean, Centre for Neighbourhood Studies and Internal Security Studies, VIF

केंद्रीय गृह मंत्री राजनाथ सिंह ने एक बड़ा कदम उठाते हुए 23 अक्टूबर, 2017 को ऐलान किया कि भारत सरकार ने ‘जम्मू-कश्मीर राज्य में निर्वाचित प्रतिनिधियों, विभिन्न संगठनों तथा संबंधित व्यक्तियों से बातचीत करने के लिए’ खुफिया ब्यूरो के पूर्व निदेशक श्री दिनेश्वर शर्मा को ‘अपना प्रतिनिधि’ नियुक्त किया है। साथ ही श्री शर्मा ‘जम्मू-कश्मीर में समाज के विभिन्न वर्गों विशेषकर युवाओं की वैध आकांक्षाओं को समझने के लिए लगातार संवाद तथा संपर्क करेंगे और राज्य सरकार तथा केंद्र सरकार को उससे अवगत कराएंगे।’ (भारत सरकार, 2017)

इस निर्णय का चौतरफा स्वागत हुआ और इसे ‘बहुत गंभीर कदम’ तथा सही समय पर की गई पहल बताया गया (जम्मू-कश्मीर के मुख्यमंत्री, इंडियन एक्सप्रेस, 25 अक्टूबर)। मुख्यमंत्री ने कहा, “हम हमेशा से यही चाहते थे... यह राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया की शुरुआत है।” कश्मीर मामलों पर गंभीरता से नजर रखने वाले अधिकतर पर्यवेक्षकों ने यही बात कही, लेकिन ज्यादातर राजनेताओं ने अपनी पार्टी लाइन पर चलते हुए संदेह जताया है। किसी ने कहा कि “सरकार ने मान लिया है कि बल प्रयोग का उसका तरीका नाकाम रहा” तो किसी ने कहा “अभी हमें घटनाक्रम पर नजर रखनी होगी” तथा किसी ने यहां तक कह दिया कि प्रक्रिया में पाकिस्तान को शामिल करना चाहिए।“ राजनीति से प्रेरित ऐसी दलीलों पर इस लेख में बातचीत करने की जरूरत भी नहीं है।

मई, 2017 में कश्मीर में तीन चरणों (पठानकोट आतंकी हमले के बाद; जून, 2016 में बुरहान वानी मुठभेड़ के बाद और उड़ी में सर्जिकल स्ट्राइक के बाद) में हुए घटनाक्रम की पड़ताल करने के बाद इस लेखक ने अपने लेख ‘जम्मू एंड कश्मीर -ऑन पाथ ऑफ नोवेयर’ में कहा था कि कश्मीर में हिंसा को खुफिया केंद्रित अभियानों द्वारा ‘लंबे समय तक गतिशील उपाय करते हुए’ नियंत्रण में लाना होगा; साथ ही यह भी कहा था कि “पूरी रणनीति के अंतिम हिस्से को ऐसे तैयार किया जाए कि अगले छह महीने में नई दिल्ली तथा श्रीनगर के नीति निर्माताओं को युवाओं, समाज के अलग-थलग पड़े वर्गों तथा आंदोलन के ‘बिखरे हुए’ नेताओं समेत जनता तक पहुंचने का मौका मिल जाए।” उसमें मैंने यह सलाह भी दी थी कि यह काम खुफिया तंत्र तथा विश्वसनीय वार्ताकारों के जरिये बेहतर तरीके से हो सकता है क्योंकि उन दोनों को ही गतिरोध तोड़ने तथा वाजपेयी जी द्वारा आरंभ किए गए इंसानियत, जम्हूरियत और कश्मीरियत के सिद्धांत पर आरंभ की गई वार्ता को बहाल करने के लिए सही माहौल तैयार करने में महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका निभानी होगी। प्रधानमंत्री मोदी भी कश्मीर की जनता को भरोसा दिलाते रहे हैं कि वाजपेयी का यही सिद्धांत कश्मीर पर उनकी नीति की बुनियाद बनेगा।”

प्रधानमंत्री मोदी ने कश्मीर की जनता के साथ किया गया अपना वायदा इस वर्ष स्वतंत्रता दिवस पर अपने भाषण में फिर दोहराया और कहा कि जम्मू-कश्मीर की समस्याओं को न तो गोली से सुलझाया जा सकता है और न ही गाली से। उन्हें केवल कश्मीरियों को गले लगाने से सुलझाया जा सकता है (“न गोली से, न गाली से, बात बनेगी - गले लगाने से”)। सरकार ने इसी पर काम किया और केंद्रीय गृह मंत्री सितंबर, 2017 में चार दिन के लिए कश्मीर गए, जहां उन्होंने 80 से अधिक प्रतिनिधिमंडलों के प्रतिनिधियों से मुलाकात की। यात्रा के दौरान गृह मंत्री को जो जानकारी मिली और सुरक्षा तथा खुफिया सेवाओं ने जो बताया, उसी के आधार पर सरकार इस निर्णय पर पहुंची कि जून, 2016 में बुरहान वानी मुठभेड़ के बाद से साल भर जो सक्रिय उपाय किए गए और जो लक्षित अभियान चलाए गए, उनसे हिंसा को काबू में करने का वांछित लक्ष्य प्राप्त हो गया है। सरकार को यह भी लगा कि वायदे के मुताबिक हितधारकों से बात करने का सही समय आ गया है।

ध्यान रहे कि इस वर्ष अक्टूबर के मध्य तक सुरक्ष बलों ने खुफिया सूचना के आधार पर अंजाम दिए गए अभियानों में 176 आतंकवादियों का सफाया कर दिया है। इसमें लश्कर-ए-तैयबा के 12 प्रमुख कमांडर, हिज्ब-उल-मुजाहिदीन के 10 और जैश-ए-मोहम्मद के दो प्रमुख सदस्य शामिल हैं। यदि पिछले तीन वर्ष (2014-2016) में हुई लक्षित कार्रवाई में मारे गए 368 आतंकवादियों को इस आंकड़े में जोड़ दें तो पता चलता है कि घाटी में काम कर रहे आतंकवादी नेटवर्क को पिछले कुछ वर्ष में सबसे बड़ा नुकसान हुआ है। पाकिस्तान प्रायोजित आतंकवाद की रीढ़ तोड़ी जा चुकी है। आतंकवादियों को वित्तीय मदद देने वाला नेटवर्क भी राष्ट्रीय जांच एजेंसी द्वारा की जा रही जांच के कारण मोटे तौर पर खत्म ही हो गया है। एजेंसी जांच में आतंकी समूहों के नेताओं और जमीनी स्तर के सदस्यों तक रकम पहुंचाने वाले व्यक्तियों को निशाना बना रही है। उपलब्ध ब्योरे के मुताबिक पाकिस्तान की मदद से मिलने वाली वित्तीय सहायता के नेटवर्क में 19 बड़े नामों की जांच की जा रही है। उनमें से 10 को अपराधों और आपराधिक मामलों के सिलसिले में पहले ही हिरासत में लिया जा चुका है।

ताज्जुब है कि इस पहल का विरोध करने वाले कुछ लोग ‘प्रतिनिधि’ या वार्ताकार के रूप में श्री शर्मा के औचित्य पर यह कहकर सवाल खड़ा कर रहे हैं कि वह खुफिया पृष्ठभूमि से आते हैं, राजनीतिक नहीं। श्री शर्मा के पूर्व वरिष्ठ सहकर्मी के एम सिंह (पूर्व विशेष निदेशक, आईबी, महानिदेशक - सीआईएसएफ और राष्ट्रीय आपदा प्रबंधन प्राधिकरण के सदस्य) का कहना है, “श्री शर्मा खांटी पेशेवर हैं, जिनको 1990 के दशक के आरंभ से ही राज्य में जमीनी स्थिति की गहरी जानकारी है क्योंकि उस समय उन्हें घाटी में नियुक्त किया गया था। पिछले वर्ष आईबी के निदेशक के रूप में सेवानिवृत्त होने तक वे कश्मीर के मामलों से जुड़े रहे थे। वह बेहद विनम्र हैं, चर्चा से दूर रहते हैं और उनसे आसानी से संपर्क किया जा सकता है।” श्री शर्मा को सरकार में निर्णय करने वालों का भरोसा हासिल है और इस तरह यह चुनौतीपूर्ण जिम्मेदारी निभाने के लिए जरूरी वार्ताकार के सभी गुण उनके भीतर हैं। प्रतिनिधि के सामने कई प्रकार की और बड़ी चुनौतियां होंगी। पिछली सरकारों द्वारा उठाए गए कदम सफल नहीं रहे थे; यह भी पूछा जाएगा कि उनकी सिफारिशों का क्या हुआ। युवाओं का मोहभंग हो चुका है, वे नेतृत्वविहीन और दिशाहीन हैं। उन्होंने बहुत तकलीफ झेली हैं; उनका शोषण किया गया है और उनकी बहुत अधिक आकांक्षाएं तथा अपेक्षाएं हैं। आर्थिक पैकेज तो बहुत दिए गए, लेकिन क्या उन्हें पहुंचाने की प्रक्रिया दुरुस्त की गई?

आज स्थिति बदल चुकी है। कानून-व्यवस्था और सुरक्षा की स्थिति नियंत्रण में आ चुकी है, लेकिन अतीत के कुछ प्रश्न हैं, जिन्हें सुलझाना ही होगा। देश के भीतर और बाहर मौजूद जिन स्वार्थी तत्वों को घाटी में जारी अशांति से फायदा मिला है, वे चुप नहीं बैठेंगे। उनके स्वार्थों की जड़ें बहुत गहराई तक पहुंच चुकी हैं। प्रतिनिधि को विभिन्न हितधारकों से कितना सहयोग मिल पाएगा? लेकिन एक अच्छी शुरुआत कर दी गई है। इस पहल के लिए सरकार को बधाई दी जानी चाहिए। मुख्यमंत्री महबूबा मुफ्ती ने समर्थन करते हुए कहा है, “श्री शर्मा को सरकार ने सभी से बात करने का अधिकार दिया गया है और इसीलिए उनकी रिपोर्ट और सिफारिशों को केंद्र सरकार की मंजूरी हासिल होगी।”

इस समय सभी पक्षों को कश्मीर तथा कश्मीरी जनता के हित में अपना पूरा सहयोग देते हुए इस पहल का समर्थन करना चाहिए और जो नया अवसर सामने आ रहा है, उसे लपकने में कश्मीर की मदद करनी चाहिए।

(लेख में लेखक के निजी विचार हैं और वीआईएफ का उनसे सहमत होना आवश्यक नहीं है)

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Translated by: Shiwanand Dwivedi (Original Article in English)

Dawn of an Era in Zimbabwe: How Robert Mugabe Failed to Implement Succession Plan

Neha Sinha, Research Associate, VIF

Background

The Republic of Zimbabwe is a landlocked country located in the southern part of Africa bordered by South Africa, Botswana, Zambia and Mozambique. The country is located between the Limpopo and Zambezi rivers with a population of approximately 16 million people. Harare is the capital and the largest city of Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is a member of the United Nations, the Southern African Development (SADC), the African Union (AU), and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Zimbabwe was also once known as the "Jewel of Africa" for its prosperity.

Source: https://fthmb.tqn.com/2Q1S24J1k6CXRCiRWojppZHTQyk=/2666x2000/filters:fill (auto,1)/Getty_Zimbabwe-150385816-56af81535f9b58b7d019aafa.jpg

India - Zimbabwe Relations

India and Zimbabwe have a long history of close and cordial relations. Bilateral trade between India and Zimbabwe are around US$ 250 million (Embassy of India, Harare, 2017). As Zimbabwe follows the Look East policy, India is now looked upon as an important trading as well as business partner of Zimbabwe. There are few active firms of Indian public sector in Zimbabwe for example Indian railway Construction Company (IRCON), Rail India Technical and Economic Services (RITES) , Water and Power Consultancy Services (TCIL), etc. Indian pharmaceutical firms have a strong presence in the Zimbabwean market and Indian-made medicines are commonly found in the country too (Embassy of India, Harare, 2017).

Both the country closely cooperate at United Nations (UN), Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) and other multilateral fora like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and G-15. India supported Zimbabwe in the Human Rights Commission. On the other hand Zimbabwe supported India for its elections to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and Council of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The country also helped in the UN Human Rights Council elections and in the year 2011, Zimbabwe supported India´s candidates for election to the UN Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions (ACABQ). Furthermore, Zimbabwe supported India’s candidature for a non-permanent seat in the United Nation Security Council.

Another important dimension of India-Zimbabwe relations is the presence of around 10,000 Zimbabweans of Indian origin. The Indian diaspora mostly hail from Gujarat and they have mainly engaged themselves in retail trade or export-import business. The younger generations have mostly moved out of the country for better opportunities as professionals. To the credit of the government in Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwean-Indian community since independence, has never faced any of the discrimination and hardships in Zimbabwe.

Political History of Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe suffered from European exploitation and civil war for more than 90 years. The country was previously the unrecognised state of Rhodesia, a former British colony under the white minority rule, where the rights and representation of Blacks were severely curtailed. In the year 1980, there was an end to the minority rule when Robert Mugabe’s Black Nationalist organization Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) won a brutal guerilla war against the Rhodesian military. With the end of minority rule, the country proclaimed independence and Robert Mugabe became the first Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. He continued to be the President of the country since 1987 with one party rule till 22nd November 2017. He became the head of the ZANU party in 1970 which later re-merged with Joshua Nkomo's Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU) to form the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).

Shortly after taking power, Mugabe, a Marxist, worked on improving the lives of the largely destitute black population by increasing wages, improving social services and food subsidies. He further introduced free education across the nation and this particular reform till now remains one of his strongest legacies due to which Zimbabwe has the highest literacy rate in Africa at 85 per cent of the population (BBC News, 2000). On the contrary, Mugabe as a leader was not successful at improving the economy - as result in the year 2008, Zimbabwe had the unenvious distinction of being the world's fastest shrinking economy. The annual inflation had soared to an astronomical per cent and more than half of the population was unemployed of which Mugabe failed to take responsibility.

Robert Mugabe carried the reputation of a ruthless dictator with complete disregard for human rights. In almost every election where he emerged as the leader tainted with allegations of fraud, violence and voter intimidation. He has been known to discharge his own ‘personal militia’ who ‘used violence and murder as an electoral strategy’ (The Week, 2014). However, there are many Africans both inside and outside Zimbabwe who still consider him a hero for standing up to the colonial powers. His charm and charisma coupled with his humble beginnings continue to help him connect with the ordinary man.

Crises in Zimbabwe

On 15th November, 2017, the army took over the government of Zimbabwe and the President Robert Mugabe was put under house arrest as the military deployed tanks on the streets of the capital - Harare. The people of Zimbabwe have accused Mugabe of his disastrous policies in recent years that led to hyperinflation, international sanctions and economic ruin. Crises in Zimbabwe took place when Mugabe accused and fired the powerful Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, for acting disloyal and plotting to seize power. Mnangagwa is a former intelligence chief and veteran of the 1970’s guerrilla war against white minority rule and was widely seen as a likely successor to Mugabe. The observers saw the move as a step toward clearing the path for his wife Grace Mugabe, as the vice president, which would put the first lady in position to become president when her 93-year-old husband retired or died. Wife Grace Mugabe was mostly seen as a controversial figure because of a recent high-profile incident in which she had to ignominiously flee from South Africa after allegedly beating a fashion model. Also, she had the backing of many younger members of the party.

To this, the Gen. Constantino Chiwenga who is considered to be a close ally of Mnangagwa’s, called a press conference, denouncing moves to purge members associated with the liberation history. And, if the purge did not stop, he warned that the military will not hesitate to step in. The General was also considered by many a possible future Vice President of Zimbabwe. Later on, signs of military intervention were seen, with tanks near the capital. The situation escalated with the early morning announcement, when Maj. Gen. S B Moyo addressed the country on state TV, vehemently denying the operation was a coup. In contrast to West Africa, southern Africa rarely sees coups. But this time the Zimbabweans gathered in huge number to march against Mugabe.

Robert Mugabe, his wife Grace and the newly elected President Emmerson Mnangagwa
(Source:http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Zimbabwe-crisis-Robert-Mugabe-and-coup/1066-4189490-9jpdv7z/index.html)

On the 19th November, the Zanu-PF Youth League, which Grace Mugabe leads, called for her expulsion from Zanu-PF forever. They also demanded the president to resign as leader of the country and party; condemning the unceremonial dismissal of Mnangagwa sacked by Mugabe (Tendai Marima, 2017). Outside the parliament and presidential offices, the civilians was seen giving hugs, and taking selfies with army personnel. The capital witnessed a congenial mood to such reaction of the military where people played loud music and danced after marching to State House to demand Mugabe's resignation. They described the day as historic and a day of freedom. Soon after ZANU-PF dismissed him as its leader, Mugabe was asked to announce his resignation to the nation. But Mugabe stunned the people by making no mention of resignation in a television address, defying his own ZANU-PF party, which had already sacked him.

On 21st November, Robert Mugabe resigned as President of Zimbabwe when the parliament began an impeachment process to end his near four decade-rule. Wild celebration broke out at a joint sitting of parliament when Mugabe’s resignation was announced. The speaker Jacob Mudenda suspended the impeachment procedure and declared that Mr. Mnangagwa popularly known as the ‘Crocodile’ would be the next President of Zimbabwe until elections due next year. Speaking to a crowd which had been waiting for him at the headquarters of the ruling Zanu-PF party, Mr Mnangagwa began by reminding people that he had been sacked by Mr. Mugabe and had fled to South Africa because of threats to his life, including an alleged poisoning three months ago. Before leaving from South Africa to Zimbabwe, he met President Jacob Zuma. On reaching Harare he was driven in a motorcade to the party headquarter. A huge crowd gathered welcoming the new hero of the country with a slogan – ‘Welcome Back Our President’, ‘Thank You for Your Endurance and Fortitude’ (Kim Sengupta, 2017). Mnangagwa in a brief speech promised to provide jobs to for everyone and praised the military commander who had carried out the coup General Constantino Chiwenga, by saying that he had managed the whole process very peacefully.

In the meanwhile, China’s role in Zimbabwe was once again in spotlight. The Zimbabwe’s top military commander had met with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing early this month. Thus, many regional observers suspect China had a hand in efforts to dethrone Robert Mugabe who wanted to stain and derail China-Africa relations. There were few experts of the opinion that the downfall of Mugabe took place from favor with China’s Communist party leaders in recent years, with Beijing particularly alarmed at the prospect of his wife, Grace Mugabe, succeeding him. However, China denied its connection with the political crisis prevailing in the country.

World Reaction towards the Crisis in Zimbabwe

The downfall of Robert Mugabe led to scenes of triumph in Zimbabwe. The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, welcomed the decision by President Robert Mugabe to step down and appreciated the peaceful transfer of power in Zimbabwe. Throughout the years, the people of Zimbabwe have demonstrated remarkable resilience and resourcefulness, and commitment to their country. The Chairperson of the Commission is confident that they, together with all their leaders, will remain steadfast in their commitment to fulfill their legitimate aspirations. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres encouraged Zimbabweans to "maintain calm and restraint" after Mugabe's resignation.

The Democratic Alliance, South Africa's main opposition party, called the resignation "a victory for the people of Zimbabwe who have suffered greatly under the latter years of Mugabe's reign". In Britain, Zimbabwe's former colonial power, Prime Minister Theresa May mentioned that the news of Mugabe's resignation was an opportunity to "forge a new path free of the oppression that characterised his rule". The United Kingdom Foreign Minister Boris Johnson said that he does not regret Mugabe's downfall and his resignation is a moment of hope for the people of Zimbabwe. On the other hand, the United States State Department released a statement congratulating the people of Zimbabwe. The embassy came out with a statement where it said; “Zimbabwe has an historic opportunity to set itself on a new path. Through that process, the United States urges unwavering respect for the rule of law and for established democratic practices” (Al-Jazeera, 2017).

For India, although the bilateral trade between the two countries are only around $250 million, the stakes are modest. India - Zimbabwe trade and investment engagements are likely to continue in the mere future as it is evident that it will bring positive results for both countries. India should continue to engage with Zimbabwe to ensure that the nations benefits from the expansion and growth of both India and Zimbabwe. Thus, India has begun investing more seriously in Africa over the past decade, so there are strategic reasons for India to follow the events closely in Zimbabwe.

Conclusion

Resignation of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe was greeted by hopes of better times for the nation's people. There was no voice of regret at his removal. The election of the new president has unleashed extraordinary hopes as hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans have joined hands to rebuild the nation to its full glory.

References

• Al-Jazeera 2017, “Robert Mugabe resigns: World reaction”. (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/robert-mugabe-resigns-world-reacti...)
• BBC News, 2000: ‘Mugabe: Freedom fighter turned autocrat’. 10th May, 2000. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/744174.stm)
• Cris Chinaka, MacDonald Dzirutwe, Joe Brock, 2017: ‘President Mugabe stuns Zimbabwe by defying pressure to resign’, Reuters World News, 19 November, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-politics/president-mugabe-st....
• Embassy of Harare, Zimbabwe, 2017 http://eoi.gov.in/harare/?pdf2000?000
• Indian Express Editorials, 2017:“A beginning, an end”. 18th November, 2017. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/a-beginning-an-end-z...
• Kim Sengupta, 2017: ‘President-elect Emmerson Mnangagwa hails 'new democracy' for Zimbabwe - but doubts remain over Robert Mugabe links’, Independent. 22nd November, 2017. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/zimbabwe-president-robert...).
• Nelson, 2017: ‘Army takes over the government of Zimbabwe seizes power from Mugabe’, My State News. November 15, 2017(https://mystatenews.com/army-takes-over-the-government-of-zimbabwe/).
• Tendai Marima, 2017, Robert Mugabe sacked as leader of ZANU-PF’, Al-Jazeera 19th November 2017. (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/robert-mugabe-sacked-leader-zanu-p...)
• The Week, 2014: “Robert Mugabe: from freedom fighter to fearsome dictator”. (http://www.theweek.co.uk/africa/61512/robert-mugabe-from-freedom-fighter...).
• Map:https://fthmb.tqn.com/2Q1S24J1k6CXRCiRWojppZHTQyk=/2666x2000/filters:fill(auto,1)/Getty_Zimbabwe-150385816-56af81535f9b58b7d019aafa.jpg

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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Image Source: https://qz.com/1133171/zimbabwe-coup-zimbabweans-are-celebrating-robert-...

Perspective on Minimising Risks in Cross Border Movement of People and Goods

Pravas Kumar Mishra, Senior Fellow, VIF

Globalisation has not just raised the aspirations of people, but has also rocked the very sovereignty of the established Westphalian nation states. As countries are developing capacities to enforce their territorial boundaries, people staying close to the international borders are losing their traditional ways of livelihood. Hence fences, immigration laws and customs acts are increasingly infringing upon their daily way of life that has been prevalent from the eons past. Consequently, demand for open traffic rights and free trade across the borders have started to gain traction in national politics and international media. However, countries in the neighbourhood are but obviously sceptical about these demands for the fear of being dumped with cheap Chinese goods. Festering inter-ethnic conflicts further add to the apprehensions of these governments. Nonetheless, there is greater realisation today on the importance of rekindling the cultural ties and enhancing the regional connectivity in Asia by the way of road, rail and sea. Besides, increase in legal commercial traffic promises the reduction in illegal trade along with the concomitant payoff of boosting local tourism.

Cross border ‘Haats’ have emerged as hubs of regional exchange, integrating people, enmeshing local economies and facilitating cultural interactions. Haats at Dawky in Meghalaya and Agartala are already operative on the Indo-Bangladesh border. Forty more Border Haats on the Indo-Bangladesh border are to open shortly. Declaration by Sheikh Hasina to open Chittagong and Mongla ports to our Kolkata and Haldia ports has further spurred these developments. Bridges over River Feni are to connect Chittagong and Agartala. A second bridge over River Meghna will have much larger impact on increasing trade between both the countries. Swapping of the enclaves between India and Bangladesh in 2015 had solved a long standing stalemate on security and demographic problems along North Bengal and Assam borders. With this, the adverse land possession cases that had tormented the border-guarding forces, has now been put to rest in perpetuity.

The Indo-Bangladesh Border is not an open border. Yet we had penetration of Bangladesh migrants from 1971-1974 after the Indo-Pak War and again from 1975-1977 after Sheikh Muzibur Rahman was assassinated; a third penetration was after the demolition of Babri Masjid at Ayodhya. Many demographic changes have occurred along the border districts of India and Bangladesh, particularly in North 24 Paraganas, Nadia, Murshidabad, Malda, Goalpara, Dhubri, Karim Ganj and Silchar. Nevertheless, the present Government under Sheikh Hasina has most cordial relations with India. With help of Border Guards of Bangladesh and Rapid Action Battalions, all Indian and Bangladesh militant camps opposite our border were permanently removed and the security agencies of Bangladesh and India are working together to apprehend Jammat-ul-Mujaheedeen of Bangladesh (JuMB), Islamic Chhatra Shibir (ICB) and Ansarullah Taliban of Bangladesh (ATB) cadres hiding in India, particularly in West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.

India needs to enhance surveillance along the border to clamp down on illegal trafficking of drugs, human and arms. Kolkata, Delhi and Bombay are known to be transit ports for Bangladeshi and Nepalese girls being sent to Middle East for sex trade. With the support of Jamaat-e-Islami-Bangladesh (JeIB) and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Rohingyas are believed to be indulging in narcotics and human trafficking, illegal trade of small arms and ammunitions, smuggling and illegal cross border infiltrations. Besides, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is known to have radicalised Rohingyas to wage war against India, which is a threat to both India and Bangladesh.

Porous international borders are being exploited by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan, Islamic State of Iraq & Syria (ISIS or IS) and secessionist elements to destabilise India and its neighbours. ISI operatives are also active in the North East and are funding Peoples United Liberated Front (PULF) and Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA) to cause communal disturbances. Even the IS, with support of local extremist groups like JuMB and ATB are flexing muscles in Bangladesh and West Bengal. ISI is also known to be planning to attack Hindu temples and minority groups in Bangladesh with the help of ATB, the ICB and the various Jamaats. Fake India Currency Notes (FICN) are being pumped in to Jammats and JuMB to spread their tentacles in India and to sustain their camps in the border areas of North 24 Paraganas, Nadia, Murshidabad, Malda, Dhubri, Goalpara, Kokrajhar, Karimganj and Silcher. Shia sites, Shia Muslim gatherings, and Shia places of worships in Bangladesh are being attacked by the Jammats, funded by ISI and backed by Bangladesh National Party (BNP). ISI wants to topple Hasina’s government in Dacca to bring back Begum Zia to power and are funding all expenditures of both the sons of Begum Zia - Arafat and Tariq Rahman - in London. Jammats have killed a Hindu Priest, Jagneswar Roy (50) of Santagouriya temple at Debiganj on 21 Feb 2016 to provoke India. Penetration of ISI trained jehadis from Bangladesh pose threat to our economy.

The border between Bhutan and India is open and aids economic growth of Bhutan by industrial assistance, particularly hydropower projects, provided by India. Bhutan has been one the most trusted and lasting friends of India. Continued investments on strong relations with Bhutan will help India block China’s threat over the Siliguri corridor. In addition, to address sensitivities of Bhutan, cross-border movement of people and goods would also need be addressed dynamically between the local authorities.

The concept of open border with Nepal must continue to be propagated as per the 1950 Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace And Friendship. India must maintain a balanced approach to the Madheshis and rest of the Nepalese in hills and should ensure that border communication with Nepal remains open at all times.

Insurgency in North East of India is due to migration and contact of local insurgent groups with external extremists. India has banned 39 militant organisations so far, most of those are operative in Assam and Manipur. In the Indo-Myanmar border, the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) poses problems to the security of North East. Handing over of Anup Chetia by Bangladesh to India has forced the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) to come out for a dialogue, even if Paresh Barua, the chief of ULFA, is not inclined to join. Paresh Barua’s military chief, Vijoy Chinese, has expressed his support for peace talks with the Government of India. Left wing extremist’s external links with Liberation Tigers Tamil Eelam, Peoples Liberation Army, NSCN-K and North East militants needs proper scrutiny and the border guards of Nepal, Bangladesh, India and Bhutan have to work with maximum cooperation to break these links. To strengthen friendship with our neighbours we have to check and regulate trade, movement of people and goods across the open borders, while official barriers have to be resolved to maintain direct dialogue.

Through the platform of Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Group, India is committed to economic relations and mutual development, which will indirectly block entry of illegal migrants from these countries. To succeed in this venture, effective management of the borders would be the key. This would need involvement of border population and development of border infrastructure by enhancing the Border Area Development Funds. ‘Smart border’ can only be visualised by integrating the border-guarding forces with all other security and administrative agencies deployed in border areas, who should have a common goal in providing better facilities to the border population and give them their deserved dues. This will entail conducting coordinated joint patrolling with Border Guards of Bangladesh and Nepal Police. Many of the missing boundary pillars have to be re-erected and damaged pillars repaired. Since last few years, Assam militants, particularly the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), used to enter Bhutan to take shelter, which has been stopped with the help of Bhutanese security agencies and organising operations against them.

Dialogue with Bangladesh has already started giving results. Cross border communications with Nepal, which had been affected, must be reinforced and transportation of goods to all the neighbours should reach faster in the coming years. India should also help in technology upgrade of hydropower Projects in Bhutan, Nepal and border areas of Bangladesh. We can purchase the extra power from these countries, which will give a boom to bilateral cooperation in trade and commerce. The Sundarbans in Bay of Bengal, which connect India and Bangladesh, need environmental and technological of up grade. Joint industrial ventures with Bhutan and Bangladesh should be a priority. Cross border mobility between Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan by land route, railways and sea routes have noticed a tremendous increase. The climate change problems, a regular phenomenon in Bangladesh, have the impact of forced migration from low-level areas. These have to be effectively managed not only by Bangladesh but also India.

India should take leading role in South Asian regional peace too. The motor vehicle agreement should also look to larger Asian markets through seamless passenger and cargo movements. Monitoring of cyber-crime and cyber-training in all these four countries should get priority there should be a common cyber network institution and exchange of cyber crime intelligence, to get maximum result.

Border infrastructure development needs immediate focus including release of funds to modernise border guarding forces. Health hazards of border population need immediate care and hospitals of border guarding forces should be asked to attend to their health issues. We need to invest on education, logistics, economy, housing, land issues, trade, employment and inter-personal relationships in border areas with the neighbouring countries. Mutual support in providing better technologies like virtual fencing in gaps, tasers, drones, radars, long range reconnaissance and observation systems, tunnel detection instruments, surveillance and underground water sensors, air capabilities, besides joint training and sharing of border intelligence are the needs of the hour to stop illegal flow of men and materials.

Lastly, religious leaders of all the communities need to be taken on-board to participate in promotion of peace, awareness, education and development in communally affected areas of the country.
(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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Could Belt and Road Initiative Create Financial Mess for China?

Prerna Gandhi, Research Associate, VIF

Since the 2000’s, predicting the timeline on collapse of Chinese economy has been a prominent theme among economists. However, the Chinese economy has proved all naysayers wrong by being resilient, and now joining the ten trillion dollars Gross Domestic Product (GDP) club. Ironically, the delay in the prophesied bubble burst can be credited to the rise of private sector in the socialist country that ensured better resource allocation. Yet, China’s modern economic journey is paved with many troubles.

From its vulnerabilities to US Federal Reserve rate hikes to expanding local government debts, China’s financial liabilities get even more complicated with the growing reach of its shadow banking sector that is beyond watch of its regulatory authorities. In such a scenario to undertake mammoth expenses of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a China-style Marshall Plan may be non-pragmatic. Funding of BRI is essentially China-led with about $500 billion¹ worth of BRI projects (both domestic and international) up to 2016 and expected to reach $4-8 trillion in entirety. Unlike the US’ Marshall Plan that covered largely one geopolitical entity, China’s BRI encompasses more than seven geopolitical regions of Asia, Africa, Eurasia and Oceania.

BRI is conceived on the premise of utilizing China’s excess capacities, while at the same time securing China’s energy and resource needs and markets for the future. Years of rapid economic growth with a devalued currency has led to large industrial over capacity and huge surplus savings, coupled with inefficient capital allocation and lagging regulatory oversight. Even though China’s external debt stands at about 13 per cent of GDP, China already has an estimated 270 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio (2016 stats). The liabilities of State-owned enterprises are estimated at about 115 per cent of GDP, which could undermine the country’s fiscal sustainability, especially in the wake of a rising fiscal deficit². Also over the last decade, China has simultaneously been plagued by ‘hot money’ (short-term speculative investments) and large domestic capital flight with an estimated $3.8 trillion in capital loss³. To cool the rapidly heating economy, China aims to transition from investment-driven to a productivity and consumption driven economy. It understands that to avoid middle-income trap, China needs to move to higher technology and upstream sectors as other developing countries catch up reducing China’s competitive advantages in cost. Today, services (50.2 per cent) comprise a larger share of China’s GDP than industry (40.2 per cent)⁴.

Thus, being capital, labor and technology intensive industry, infrastructure development in China and other countries offers the perfect platform for resolving China’s current pressing challenges. However, China’s growth has come at such a rapid pace that in less than three decades of rapid growth in the modern era it has come to reclaim its place as the world’s second largest economy, like two centuries earlier when it was the world’s largest economy. China created 139 per cent of GDP in new credit between the first quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2014. This is concerning when one looks at similar rapid credit expansion in the US and Japan that were followed by financial crises. US created 58 per cent of GDP from 2002-07 and faced the subprime mortgage crisis soon thereafter. Japan created credit equivalent to the entire size of its economy from 1985-90 and subsequently experienced more than 20 years of deflation - prolonged by lack of much needed structural reforms and declining demography⁵. In September 2016, a report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) had stated that China was within three years of a serious financial crisis⁶. Thus, rapid economic growth in China serves both to advance and postpone the inevitable financial burst as credit expansion creates security for large bailouts while deteriorating investment quality at the same time.

BRI’s priorities listed on the Belt & Road Portal mention Policy Coordination, Facilities Connectivity, Unimpeded Trade, Financial Integration and People-to-People bond. In May 2017, a United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Study (UNESCAP) warned of financial risks in countries in south and central Asia where China's announced investment value under BRI is high compared to the relative size of the economy of the recipient country. The report states that “… at a broad level, relatively easy access to large foreign loans for infrastructure projects, even if most of them tend to be on a concessional basis, could undermine macroeconomic stability in small economies with underdeveloped financial markets and less effective debt management ability⁷”. The $15 billion China-Uzbekistan investment deal signed in late 2013 is roughly equivalent to a quarter of Uzbekistan's GDP. Similarly, the $37 billion China-Kazakhstan cooperation agreement signed in late 2014 and early 2015 and the $46 billion China-Pakistan agreement in April 2015 each represent over a fifth of GDP level in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, according to the UN study. China's commitment to Pakistan has now reached $ 62 billion. Similarly, the $24 billion China-Bangladesh agreement in October 2016 is equivalent to almost 20 percent of Bangladesh's GDP⁸. China may be primarily interested in redirecting its excess capital, but if they do not generate the expected revenues, the BRI loans will leave bad assets that will clog the already overburdened Chinese financial system.

Infrastructure needs ‘network effects’ to generate revenue through interlinking mechanisms with existing infrastructure that will allow more people to able to utilize it. This precipitates a need for policy coordination. However, in BRI’s case China may be relying too much on incentive caused bias while disregarding actual geopolitics. Incentives influence the way people act, based on how they’re rewarded. Incentive-Caused Bias is used to explain why people with a vested interest in something will tend to guide the outcome in the direction of their interest. With increasing pressure on governments to ramp up growth rates or build massive (public) infrastructure, China expects that the states owing to monetary incentives or cheap loans will naturally coordinate their policies with that of China. At the individual and institutional level an outright reward may directly be able to influence behavior, but at a country level it may not work out smoothly as a multitude of factors are in play. Planning Fallacy is inherent in all human planning as all initial planning will almost certainly be incomplete or inaccurate in a few important respects. Thus, there are possibilities for China suffering from a confirmation bias or the general tendency for people to pay attention to information that support their conclusion and ignore information that doesn’t.

In conclusion, Chinese leadership is more than aware of the above mentioned lurking dangers. In recent time, China has received warning from nearly all major international financial institutions. It has also faced a ratings downgrade from Standard & Poor and Moody’s Investor Service. In April earlier this year President Xi Jinping had chaired a gathering to discuss “safeguarding national financial-market security”, a day after the worst losses this year in Shanghai-traded shares. While the central bank governor and the various regulators were also there, the fact the Communist Party’s premier decision-making body, the Politburo, met and decided to act on financial risk suggests there’s acceptance of the risks at the very top⁹. On 18 August 2017, China’s State Council also published a set of investment guidelines to clamp down on the “irrational” or “non-genuine” investments in BRI. Since the BRI was proposed in 2013, an until June this year, Sinosure, a state owned insurance enterprise has paid a total compensation of $1.73 billion to enterprises and banks¹⁰. This may be an understated figure considering many flagship BRI projects have failed to materialize the expected revenue. The dramatic Venezuelan economic collapse despite being a rich country, and not coincidentally, a strong beneficiary of Chinese finances, bears strong parallels to the future for Pakistan and China Pakistan Economic Corridor¹¹. Thus, whether the Chinese regulators will be able to reign in financial hazards of the Belt and Road Initiative is over for the jury to decide.

Endnotes

1. Pricewater Coopers: China and Belt & Road Infrastructure, 2016 review and outlook, February 2017, https://www.pwchk.com/en/consulting/br-watch-infrastructure.pdf

2. Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2017: Governance and Fiscal Management, Chapter 2. Perspectives from Sub-regions, http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Chapter2-Survey2017.pdf

3. Forbes: Why China Lost About $3.8 Trillion To Capital Flight In The Last Decade, February 22, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/insideasia/2017/02/22/china-capital-flight-...

4. National Bureau of Statistics of China: Composition of GDP, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/html/0302EN.jpg

5. South China Morning Post: China’s credit excess is unlike anything the world has ever seen, April 21, 2017, http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2089577/can-worlds-l...

6. Reuters: BIS warns China banks risk crisis within three years, September 19, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-banking/bis-warns-china-banks-r...

7. Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2017, Governance and Fiscal Management, Pg. 68 http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/Survey%202017-Fi...

8. Economic Times: UN warns about financial risks in China’s One Belt One Road project, May 25, 2017, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/un-warns-about-financi...

9. Bloomberg: How China Is Tackling Dangers in Its Financial System, October 10, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-09/how-china-is-getting-...

10. China's insurance industry invests RMB700 bln for B&R construction, August 21, 2017, https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/home/rolling/24203.htm

11. Bloomberg: Is Pakistan China's Venezuela?, November 27, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-27/is-pakistan-china-s...

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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