Kanwal Sibal,
Dean, Centre for International Relations and Diplomacy, VIF
Developments in Ukraine should be understood as part of US/EU's
project of stretching the frontiers of "Europe" eastwards as far as
possible in order either to eventually topple the present Russian
political and economic order from within and make Russia a "European"
country, or isolate it as a political and economic backwater beyond a
"European" buffer extending into the former Soviet Union's heartland.
"Europe" for the protagonists of this strategy is a geography of
shared values of democracy, market economy, freedom of expression, rule
of law and respect for human rights.
The first attempt nine years ago through the Orange Revolution to
incorporate Ukraine into "Europe" proved abortive. But the objective was
not abandoned and has been pursued by leveraging internal Ukrainian
divisions, especially the strong pro-western sentiments of the Catholic,
non-Russian speaking population of western Ukraine to draw the country
towards "Europe".
The US has provided political encouragement to internal Ukrainian
forces to split with Russia by frequently affirming that as an
independent country Ukraine had the right to choose its partners; in
other words join the EU and NATO irrespective of Russian concerns.
Its democracy-promoting NGOs have been active on the ground for
years. Ukraine's leadership has proved unequal to the task of governing a
fractured country, and faced with competing pulls has played politics
with both sides - the West and Russia.
The Russians actually view Yanukovich as a bungling and corrupt
politician; politically docketing him as "pro-Russian" is an analytical
short-hand that distorts reality. The rejection of the Association
Agreement with the EU at the last minute provided "pro-democracy"
elements as well as Ukrainian ultra-nationalists just the pretext they
needed to stage violent protests leading eventually to the overthrow of
Yanukovich's legitimately elected government.
The West's support for this unconstitutional act in a territory of great
sensitivity for Russia, without weighing the likely repercussions on
Russia-Western ties, shows either acute diplomatic clumsiness or
misplaced self-confidence in handling any challenge from a weakened
Russia.
The US abetment of this political coup in Ukraine has been exposed by
the conduct of its politicians and diplomats. Apart from making
expletives the currency of diplomacy, the US Assistant Secretary in
charge of the region has been filmed handing over food packets to
anti-government street demonstrators in Kiev.
No self-respecting country would normally allow such blatant
interference in its internal affairs. That this was tolerated reveals
the insecure foundations of the Ukrainian state, the disarray of
country's political class and the penetration of foreign interests into
its political system.
The West's attitude towards Russia puzzles. Russia's "great power"
status, on the one hand, is no longer recognised and dire predictions
are made about its future because of its demographic decline, obsolete
industrial infrastructure, over-dependence on raw material exports,
heavily state controlled economy that stifles enterprise, a weak justice
system etc.
Europe, in fact, wants Russia to accept its diminished status and
instead of seeking equality with Europe as a whole, it is called to see
itself simply as another major European power.
Uneasy diplomatic relationships with Western Europe have given
Ukrainian ultra-nationalists just the pretext they needed to stage
violent protests leading eventually to the overthrow of a legitimately
elected government
Beyond that, for Europe's Russophobia to end, Russia must accept
European political, economic and social values, becoming, in fact, a
clone of western European powers.
On the other hand, Russia is still treated as the West's principal
geo-political rival and cold war rooted efforts to contain it have not
been abandoned, with employment of military, economic and ideological
tools to that end, represented by the eastward expansion of NATO, EU and
western values.
China, despite its 1.3 billion population, its emergence as the
world's second largest economy as well as its largest exporter, its
expanding military power and strategic ambitions of challenging US
hegemony in the western Pacific, is treated as less menacing.
Perceived threat
The persistent Euro-centric view that the West has of the world, the
belief that Russia has the potential to threaten the centre of gravity
of western power represented by NATO, might explain this in part.
US interests are of course served if the Russian threat is not
allowed to fade away in public mind, as that then enables the US to
continue dominating European defence and security policies through NATO.
Germany, as Russia's strongest European partner, could have played a
bridging role between US/EU and Russia, but it is constrained to work
within the limits imposed on its foreign policy by its EU/NATO
membership.
Germany was at the centre of the Cold War; it should be at the centre
of burying it permanently. It is best positioned to scotch the
resurfacing Cold War type tensions with Russia that US and select EU
countries on the immediate periphery of Russia cultivate.
Repercussions
America's domineering instincts, the language of threats,
intimidation, and sanctions by its leadership, the assumption that it
speaks for the "international community" as a whole, have once again
manifested themselves during the Ukrainian crisis.
This time it is not small and relatively defenceless countries like
Iraq, Libya, Iran or Syria, but a permanent UN Security Council member
that is being hectored by the US.
US has threatened to expel Russia from the G-8, has imposed visa
restrictions on some category of officials and is examining economic
sanctions, ignoring that the reasons being given to punish Russia could
have amply justified similar penalisation of the US for forcing regime
changes in several countries in violation of international law.
Such US conduct has international repercussions, diminishing support
for the existing international system and reinforcing the need for
re-balancing global power equations still skewed heavily in favour of
the West.
Ironically, the US is undermining the very international system that
it wants others to assume their share of the burden to support.
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