China’s New ADIZ over East China Sea: Implications for India

Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand, 

Senior Fellow, VIF

Declaration by China of a new overlapping Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over contested islands of Diaoyu/Senkaku besides raising tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have caused reverberations in the strategic firmament of the entire Asia-Pacific region. While the new ADIZ may not have conferred any sovereignty rights over the disputed islands, it was surely an innovative way by China of advancing its claims. It also needs to be noticed that Japan had also been at work in a similar way when it announced its ADIZ in 1967. However, what is of interest to China’s neighbours both across the land and maritime borders is how China would behave as it continues to rise. Does it really believe in a peaceful rise and harmonious neighbourhood or is it merely a slogan? As China spends more and more on military in order to reach some kind of parity with the US in the long term, would it disregard the interests of its weaker and not so weak neighbours in order to realise its ‘core interests’? Problem for India or for that matter other countries affected by China’s assertive policies are how to respond to such policies.

What is of concern to India is the possibility of an ADIZ being declared over the contested Sino-Indian borders. Though sometime back spokesman of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had clarified that such ADIZ was only applicable to littoral i.e. coastal areas but then this may not be absolutely correct as ADIZ are established both over land and sea. In the announcement of such an ADIZ over Diaoyu/Senkaku islands many strategic messages are being discerned. One message is that US will not be a reliable strategic partner or ally as it would be keener to protect its own interests and therefore would not be willing to help fully its ally or partner if push comes to a shove. American economy has become so much interwoven with the Chinese economy that it may be reluctant to enter into a hot conflict with China despite its much touted rebalance strategy or pivot to Asia and its practice of Air Sea Battle concept. The fact that US Vice-President Joe Biden during his visit to Beijing post declaration of new ADIZ did not call on China to reverse the same is also being viewed with consternation by Japan and South Korea. A second message emanating from China to its neighbours is that your interests are better served by economically and strategically engaging with China rather than with a distant power like the US whose economic and military power is in decline.

The above policy of China is also being seen in line with the Sun Tzu’s dictum of best strategy being to attack an adversary’s plan and alliances rather than get into a military conflict with him. Declaration of ADIZ is also being viewed as part of China’s anti-access and area denial strategy to thwart the strategies of America and its allies on the Asia-Pacific board.

What could be India’s response if such a zone is declared by China over the disputed areas? Evidently, India is unlikely to accept such an ADIZ and the potential for risk and unintended incidents in the air space would increase. India has been in favour of status quo despite China having increased the number of incursions/transgressions along the Line of Actual Control and especially so in the Ladakh Sector. Over the years, China has also been able to increase the number of disputed areas in Ladakh sector. However, declaration of ADIZ over the disputed border areas, if and when declared, would only be one manifestation of the larger problem of as to how should India respond to China’s rise and its attempts to dictate a new strategic discourse.

The Indian predicament is how to deal with such a situation. Does it join the US in some sort of ‘concert of democracies’ or does it cooperate-engage Beijing in the medium term? Or for that matter does it accept a China dominated Asian order?

India has long cherished its aspiration of achieving strategic autonomy; in the medium term it is unlikely to bandwagon with the US though and is more likely to continue to pursue a policy that supports its national interests.

Similarly, India will not be disposed towards accepting a China led order in Asia; even countries like Japan, Vietnam or for that matter Indonesia could be unwilling to accede to such an arrangement despite compelling economic logic and pressures.

There is also a possibility of US and China coming to some sort of understanding to share power or divide areas of influence which may create more complexities. Possibilities of G2 or a condominium has been talked about (for instance during Obama’s visit to Beijing in 2009, the Joint Statement mentioned a joint US-China role in South Asia) earlier but India remains uncomfortable with such ideas.

India is also unlikely to favour any policy that puts itself in a conflict situation. In any case India is more inclined towards internal balancing, that is, strengthening its national capabilities rather than depend upon external balancing through forming alliances with other powers. However, according to one estimate, the differential of combat power between China and India is in the ratio of 3:1. It would be only by the end of India’s 14th Five Year Defence Plan (2022-2027) that the huge gap in the combat power would likely be reduced to a manageable level of 1.5:1. But for this to happen, the Indian economy has to do well in the coming years and recover from its current decline.

Finally, as the recent events in South China Sea and East China Sea have shown, the strategic environment in the region is increasingly becoming volatile and risk prone as the rising power moves towards changing the status quo and as the existing power architecture responds to the same. China’s new ADIZ is only a symptom of the larger strategic changes under way in the Asia Pacific. Strengthening multi lateral security architecture in the Asia Pacific and reduction of dissonance through a negotiated process would pay dividends in the long run.

Verdict 2013 – Lessons for both the Congress and the BJP

Dr. A Surya Prakash, 

Distinguished Fellow, VIF

As the campaign ended in the Delhi State Assembly Election, leaders of both the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tended to be rather dismissive of the challenge posed by Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). When asked by media persons if she was worried about the growing popularity of AAP, the former Delhi Chief Minister, Ms.Sheila Dikshit reportedly countered by asking “Who is Arvind Kejriwal?”. This was on December 4, the day of polling. On December 8, the day the votes were counted, the people of Delhi had answered her query! The BJP too tended to under estimate AAP. A national leader of this party is said to have described this fledgling political outfit as a “Chillar Party”, meaning that its worth was equivalent to small change or that it was nothing more than a children’s outfit. He too has had to re-evaluate AAP after December 8.

However, now that AAP has spread itself on the electoral map of Delhi, both the national parties need to understand the reasons for the rise of this party, which is neither based on caste or religion or region, as most new political entities are in the country, nor is it an outfit with deep pockets. In fact, after many decades, AAP is the first party which has ensured hundred percent transparency in regard to party funds and openly solicited financial support for the Aam Aadmi (Common Man). The party has risen precisely because the two national parties were seen to be contemptuous of the need for a moral and ethical framework for politics.

The UPA’s image and that of the Congress Party took a beating beginning with the scandalous stories of corruption in the conduct of the Commonwealth Games. Thereafter, many more skeletons tumbled out of its cupboards including the 2G Scam and Coalgate. This led to a national anti-corruption movement headed by Gandhian Anna Hazare for a strong Lok Pal to check corruption. The Congress Party and many union ministers were initially derisive of Anna’s efforts and this only propelled more public anger. Eventually, the government came up with a draft that fell short of Anna’s expectations. When the movement was at its height, ministers like Mr.Kapil Sibal mocked at Anna and his lieutenant Arvind Kejriwal and said laws. are made by parliament, not by gatherings in Ramlila Maidan. He also said those who lacked the ability to enter electoral politics and win seats in democratic bodies should not lecture the government. Kejriwal decided to float AAP, much against Anna’s will, to put an end to these jibes, and going by the Delhi result it can be said that he has succeeded in silencing every Congress leader who laughed at the Anna movement two years ago.

Apart from corruption, non-governance became yet another malady afflicting the UPA government at the Centre. The prime example of this was the growing insecurity among women in the national capital and the brutal rape and killing of Nirbhaya in a bus in Delhi in December, 2012. The paralysis at the government level was most visible as the union government and the Delhi Government squabbled over who was responsible for women’s safety.

As the recent election results show, the Congress has got its just deserts. But if we are to apportion blame for the rise of AAP, the BJP must get its share of it. Although the Congress Party’s arrogance and corruption created the ground for AAP, much more was expected of the BJP, which was the main opposition party. However, the BJP failed to corner the government and take the initiative for a strong anti-corruption law. It allowed the advantage to slip away and fall into the hands of Anna Hazare and AAP. Similarly, the BJP failed to take the moral high ground on issues like criminalization of politics and self-aggrandisement of MPs and MLAs with endless perks including the demand for red beacons atop their cars. In short, the party failed to take the lead and AAP stepped in to fill the moral vacuum. Throughout the campaign, the AAP accused the BJP of being the B Team of the Congress and said that the Congress and the BJP were two faces of the same coin. Somewhere this accusation struck a chord with the electorate, depriving the BJP of the much-needed majority in the Delhi Assembly. That is why Mr.Kejriwal’s initial promises include a strong anti-corruption law and an assurance that no MLA of AAP would use the red beacon on his or her car. The people are disgusted with the behavior of MPs and MLAs, who have become arrogant and insensitive to peoples’ feelings. That is why the red beacon has become a symbol of hatred of the elected representative.

There are several other factors which have hurt the image of the BJP. For example, many MPs of this party have been caught in scandals like Cash-for-Questions and corruption in MPLADS. In both these instances, many MPs of this party were caught on camera indulging in corrupt practices during sting operations. The cumulative effect of all this and the unwillingness of the party leadership to breakaway from political practices that created disgust among the people hurt the party and weakened its fight against the Congress. It is sad that the BJP, which once claimed that it was a party with a difference, has become as insensitive to these issues as the Congress. If the BJP does not make a quick course correction, it will cede the moral space to the Aam Aadmi Party in several more regions of the country.

The voters have given a massive rebuff to the Congress Party and it will take that party a lot of time to recover lost ground. Meanwhile, the BJP will have to guard against complacency and take immediate steps to counter the influence of the Aam Aadmi Party if it wishes to replace the Congress at the national level. Till September 13 this year when Mr.Narendra Modi was anointed the party’s prime ministerial candidate, the BJP’s cadres were dispirited and had gone into hibernation. The recent results show that Modi’s leadership has electrified the cadres and got them to work for the party with renewed vigour. Mr.Modi will now have to take the next big step to once again make the BJP the party with a difference and enable it to recapture the moral high ground. This can be done by taking a firm stand against corruption and self-aggrandisement of peoples’ representatives. Mr.Modi has the moral aura to assert himself on these issues and he must do so quickly. If he fails to do so, the Aam Aadmi Party will continue to be an attraction for citizens in Delhi and beyond and this will certainly hurt the BJP’s final tally in the Lok Sabha poll of 2014, just as it hurt the BJP’s dream of recapturing Delhi in 2013. Will Mr.Modi act?

Pakistani Taliban’s Deadly Cocktail –Terror and Polio

Monish Gulati

A police escort was killed and another wounded when militants attacked a team of polio vaccinators on the outskirts of Peshawar on 30 November.¹ Earlier on 23 November, militants in Pakistan kidnapped eleven teachers involved in a polio vaccination campaign for school children at a private school in the Bara area of the Khyber tribal agency. The militants took the teachers to an area controlled by Taliban-affiliated Lashkar-e-Islam group.² These incidents are amongst a string of senseless attacks carried out over the last few years by the Pakistani Taliban (or the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan-TTP) on health workers working under Pakistan’s polio immunisation programme. This article looks at the impact of these actions of the TTP on Pakistan’s efforts to rid itself of polio, particularly after medical evidence has indicated that Pakistan may have contributed to the spread of the disease to Syria, and implications this holds for India.

A strain of the virus that originated in Pakistan has caused polio and crippled at least 13 children in Deir al-Zor, Syria, where an outbreak was detected in October. Genetic sequencing has confirmed the origin of the virus strain found in Syrian children. According to the Assistant Director-General for Polio, Emergencies and Country Collaboration at the World Health Organisation (WHO), the virus has travelled over land to Syria³ and is spreading across the Middle East. Emergency plans are being implemented to vaccinate more than 20 million children in the region.⁴ Closely related strains of the wild polio virus of Pakistani origin have also been detected in sewage samples in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip since February 2013. The vaccinations are to be carried out in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, West Bank, Syria, and Turkey.⁵

Pakistan

Pakistan is one of three nations in the world (others being Afghanistan and Nigeria) where polio remains endemic. Efforts to stamp out polio in Pakistan through an oral immunisation programme have been on since 1994. The programme had begun to yield results; in 2011 there were 198 new recorded cases of polio in Pakistan, while in 2012, there were just 58. However, the official number of polio cases detected so far this year, have risen to 72. Most of the polio cases have been detected in Pakistan's tribal regions; 19 cases from North Waziristan, 17 from Khyber, 9 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 6 each from Bannu and Punjab, and 4 from Sindh have been reported so far this year.⁶

The Pakistani polio programme was initially targeted by the clergy and the Taliban who declared the vaccination as a Western ploy to render Muslims sterile by alluding to the fact that it was receiving foreign financial assistance. However, there was little improvement in the situation even after the funding of the programme was taken over by the Pakistani government with the assistance of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (B&MGF), which had pledged to pay the seven per cent annual interest on the $227 million loan the Islamic Development Bank had provided to Pakistan for polio immunisation.

Another misconception is that the polio vaccine contains materials forbidden by Islam, such as alcohol and pig’s blood.⁷ The misconceptions are worse among the Pashtun population. Officials associated with the programme, however, blame it on the country’s failure to ensure quality polio vaccination, preventing immunisation refusal and the inability to reach all children under five years of age.⁸

Since July last year, 24 health workers and policemen providing protection to these health workers have been killed and 14 others injured in 24 targeted attacks on vaccinators in different parts of the country by the Taliban.⁹ The most recent attack having taken place on the outskirts of Peshawar when two people were killed and 13 wounded in a bombing that targeted polio workers.¹⁰ Attacks on health workers have not been restricted to the north of the country; in December 2012, gunmen killed four women working on a government polio vaccination campaign in Karachi.

Other Factors

Besides vaccination refusal, denial of access to certain restive areas is a major cause for the rise in polio cases. According to reports, the authorities in FATA were unable to vaccinate around 900,000 targeted children either due to the TTP’s ban on vaccination in North and South Waziristan agencies last year or due to military action against militants in other agencies.

Many Pakistanis have viewed polio vaccination campaigns with suspicion after the CIA's use of a fake vaccination program in 2011 to collect DNA samples from residents of Osama bin Laden's compound to verify his location. The policy gave credence to the conspiracy theories in circulation. Last year, a Taliban commander in northwest Pakistan announced a ban on polio vaccines for children in the region as long as the US continues its campaign of drone strikes in the region. The TTP also believes that western powers are using polio vaccination programmes as a cover for espionage. ¹¹

However, many experts believe TTP’s strategy goes deeper. “It’s another way of trying to control the population through fear”. The difference in perception between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP on such issues gives credence to this notion. Mullah Omar had issued a statement that called for a change in the Taliban attitude, particularly towards women’s rights and education. In May 2013, the Afghan Taliban endorsed polio vaccination saying, “According to the latest international medicine science, the polio disease can only be cured by preventive measures i.e. the anti-polio drops and the vaccination of children against this disease. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan supports and lends a hand to all those programs which works for the health care of the helpless people of our country.”¹² Mullah Omar has allowed polio immunisation in Taliban dominated areas of Afghanistan since 2007.¹³

The Afghan Taliban proceeded to warn organisations not to attack polio immunisation teams. The Taliban ‘advisory’ was applicable to all its affiliates including the TTP. However the TTP continued with its targeting of Pakistani health workers carrying out polio-immunisation; drawing international condemnation. These acts, amongst others including kidnapping and extortion, were reported to have deeply strained the relations between the TTP and Mullah Omar.

Gender Aspect

It has been suggested that there is a gendered aspect to TTP’s actions based on the recent history of militant violence being directed against “lady health workers”, a body of more than 100,000 women who deliver door-to-door healthcare.¹⁴ The lady health worker programme was initiated by Benazir Bhutto in 1994, and for many women and girls in remote areas, they provide the only direct access to healthcare. A 2012 study published in the British Medical Journal looked at how the Taliban threatened and attacked female health workers in Swat during their brief period of control of the area. Lady health workers were socially ostracised after public vilification by the TTP. The study also found that many Lady health workers stopped working or left the area due to the threat to their lives.

Afghanistan

According to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, Afghanistan is one of three countries in the world where polio remains endemic. There have been 8 confirmed cases of polio in 2013 (as of October) and 37 reported cases in 2012, which were confined to the southern provinces, specifically within thirteen districts in the provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, and Uruzgan. However, the eight cases of polio confirmed in 2013 are located in the eastern provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar. Same has been confirmed by WHO, which said that polio has been eradicated across the country except Kunar and Nangarhar provinces (which are adjoining FATA).¹⁵

India

WHO removed India from the list of polio-endemic countries in March 2012 after India successfully completed an entire year without an incidence of polio. However, India will have to remain polio free for two more years before it is declared polio-free by the WHO.¹⁶ India is alive to the possibility of the polio virus entering the country through transnational movement of people, particularly from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Central government has alerted all the States bordering the neighbouring countries to strengthen surveillance. Special booths have been established on the Wagah border and Attari and Munabao train stations to ensure that all children under the age of 5 coming from across the border are given polio drops.

In 2012, after WHO removed India from the list of polio-endemic countries, Dr. Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, a vaccine expert at Aga Khan University’s medical school in Karachi, stated “[n]othing wounded our pride as much as that”. Following the WHO announcement, Pakistan’s government went on an emergency footing. A cabinet-level “polio cell” ¹⁷ was created and various mullahs were drafted to endorse the vaccination campaign in order to dispel persistent rumours and to give moral legitimacy to the program. The mullahs subsequently issued 24 fatwas in favour of vaccination and the same was disseminated to the public through the health care workers.

Impact

Given the current situation where Syrians refugees in neighboring countries have topped two million and that the immunization level in these areas is not reassuring, the risk of further spread of the wild poliovirus across the region is considered to be high. A surveillance alert has been issued to actively search for additional potential cases. Lebanon, which hosts more than 800,000 Syrian refugees, is vaccinating all children under five. In Europe, experts have warned that the Syrian refugees could inadvertently bring polio virus to Europe.¹⁸ The issue has further complicated the humanitarian crisis arising out of the Syrian conflict.

Back in Pakistan, the government has included polio vaccination programme on the agenda for the proposed dialogue with the Taliban groups. Imran Khan’s new provincial government in KPK is planning to give polio workers weapons licenses to carry their own guns.¹⁹ However, the issue remains complex not only because of the TTP and insurgency in FATA but because of the fact that the polio virus is also endemic to Afghanistan and that Pakistan hosts large number Afghan refugees. This worsening situation in Pakistan has the capability to negate the positive gains seen in Afghanistan as cross-border movements in the region could see a resurge of polio in the region.

India on the other hand, besides escalation of terrorism post-2014, would also be mindful of the polio virus as a destabilized region could see refugee movements into the country at a time it would be celebrating the success of its decades-long ‘Pulse-polio’ programme.

(The author is an independent analyst based in New Delhi)

Endnotes

1. Polio cop, 3 soldiers killed in attacks, The Nation, December 01, 2013. http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/na...
2. Jibran Ahmad. Pakistan militants kidnap 11 teachers in polio vaccination campaign, Reuters, November 23, 2013. http://news.yahoo.com/pakistan-militants-kidnap-11-teachers-polio-vaccin...
3. Syed Fazl-e-Haider. The virus of extremism fuels the spread of polio in Pakistan, The National, November 2, 2013. http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/the-virus-of-e...
4. Stephanie Nebehay Polio strain in Syria originated in Pakistan, WHO confirms, Reuters, Nov. 11, 2013. http://www.nbcnews.com/health/polio-strain-syria-originated-pakistan-who...
5. WHO: Pakistan Polio Strain In Syria, RFE/RL, November 12, 2013.
   http://www.rferl.org/content/pakistan-polio-syria/25165286.html
6. Ashfaq Yusufzai. Polio incidence higher than last year, Dawn, November 13, 2013.
   http://dawn.com/news/1056082/polio-incidence-higher-than-last-year
7. Samira Shackle. The struggle for a Polio-free Pakistan, NewStatesman, June 252013. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/struggle-polio-free-pakistan
8. Ser 6.
9. Ser 3.
10. 2 killed in blast targeting Pakistani polio workers, CNN, October 8, 2013. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/07/world/asia/pakistan-polio-workers-attack/
11. Ser 3.
12. Zubair Babakarkhail and Dean Nelson. Taliban renounces war on anti-polio workers, The Telegraph, May 13 2013. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/10053981/Tali...
13. Yaroslav Trofimov. ‘Risky Ally in War on Polio: the Taliban,’ WSJ, January 15, 2010. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB126298998237022117
14. Ser 7.
15. BBC Pashto, November 19, 2013.
16. Aarti Dhar. India no more a polio-endemic country: WHO, The Hindu, February 25, 2012. http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/india-no-more-a-polioendemic-cou...
17. Khoso directs revival of Polio Cell, Dawn, June 02, 2013.
    http://dawn.com/2013/06/02/khoso-directs-revival-of-polio-cell/
18. Owen Bennett. Europe at risk of polio outbreak as refugees flee Syria, Express, November 8, 2013. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/441872/Europe-at-risk-of-polio-outbr...
19. Ser 7.  

International Conference at RUSI, London on Afghanistan 2014 and Beyond

The first two days were devoted to briefings by the UK government officials and their research staff and panel discussions with the visiting scholars and practitioners. On 04 December, interaction between the senior policy advisers of the Foreign and Common Wealth Office and UK’s Ministry of Defence and the delegates to the conference took place. Mr. Patrick Moody outlined the UK policy on Afghanistan and reasons for the same. Broadly the aim was that Afghanistan does not pose any threat in future particularly to UK and to the region and the international community in general. He spelt out some details of how UK was implementing its policy objectives through its contributions towards creating a viable state. Besides its aid efforts, UK was also active in encouraging the negotiation process with Taliban for eventual political reconciliation. Ben Fender, Political Counsellor at the British Embassy in Kabul happened to be in town and he explained the complexities of the reconciliation process. 

The delegates did make some observations on the reconciliation process and expressed a degree of skepticism in the manner the negotiations have proceeded so far. However, there was a general consensus that successful elections may create conducive climate to recommence the reconciliation process.

A trilateral conference on Afghanistan’s future between scholars from Royal United Services Institution, VIF experts and researchers from various Chinese think tanks was organized in London from 04 to 06 December 2013. The VIF delegation was led by its Director Mr. Ajit Doval and comprised of Gen. (Retd.) NC Vij, Amb. TCA Rangachari, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Ravi Sawhney and Brig. (Retd.) Vinod Anand. The Chinese delegation was led by Dr. Hu Shisheng, Director of Institute of South and Southeast Asian Studies which is part of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. The main objective of the discussions was to gaze into future and assess as to how peace, stability and prosperity can be ensured once the western troops leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014.

The next stop was at UK’s Ministry Of Defence where it was explained that significant risks of the security situation worsening remain. Weak leadership and corruption in Afghan National Security Forces, high attrition rates, lack of logistic support including equipment and funding issues to sustain the force need to be further addressed. It was also noticed that the UK along with its allies was working to develop Afghan National Army as a counter insurgency force and not as a regular army that can defend its borders from any adventuresome neighbour. The parting thought was that the UK would be doing less but in a more meaningful way.

On the second day, an interaction with held with Rt. Hon. Richard Ottaway, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. The objective of the Committee is to exercise close oversight over the foreign policy so that it goes in the right direction. Post-2014 situation in Afghanistan and UK’s policy objectives were discussed. There was exchange of Indian and Chinese perspectives on the issue. Thereafter, a panel discussion involving the staff and researchers of UK’s Department of International Development was held. Each side explained the trends and challenges of the Afghan economy and how best a successful economic transition can be ensured in post 2014 Afghanistan. This was an area where India, China and the UK could cooperate and help stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. Later, a visit to Cabinet War Rooms was also organized.

A seminar was organized on 06 December where detailed presentations and discussions were carried out on the subjects of security, regional dynamics, reconciliation and Afghan economy. Many useful ideas for bringing peace, stability and prosperity to Afghanistan including some thoughts about cooperation especially in the realm of economy were exchanged. The objective was to formulate a set of recommendation that could be distributed to the decision makers in the respective governments

India must Solidify Ties with Japan for Growth, Moderating China

Kanwal Sibal, 

Dean, Centre for International Relations and Diplomacy, VIF

The visit of Japan’s royal couple to India, the first in the history of India-Japan relations, deserved greater attention by our media. The government did make special gestures to underline the visit’s importance, with the Prime Minister receiving the couple at the airport and the External Affairs Minister acting as the Minister-in-waiting. But the media did not amplify the government’s political signals, which a mature media with geopolitical sense should have.

Special

Our media gives excessive coverage to visits by the US President or Pakistani leaders, down to frivolous details of fashion and food. The coverage of the royal couple’s visit was muted by comparison, even though much could have been said about the exceptional dignity and grace of the guests. Perhaps the Japanese side may not have wanted to promote celebrity coverage of the visit, as that might have been incompatible with the relationship of respect and distance between the Japanese public and the royal couple. Nonetheless, we seemed to have lost the sense of the moment, as the visit of the Emperor and Empress of Japan- a 2600 years old monarchy- had special significance in historical terms.

The rising tensions between Japan and China unduly coloured the media commentary on the visit. No doubt India and Japan see a shared interest in dealing with the challenges posed by an increasingly assertive China. The visit of the royal couple coincided with China’s declaration of a new Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) that covers the disputed Senkaku islands, which made the China dimension of the developing India-Japan strategic partnership more topical.

The Japanese political managers of the royal visit rightly did not want to narrow its purpose by overemphasising the China context. To avoid unnecessary China-baiting and put matters in perspective, they briefed the media on the comparative content of the Japan-China and the Japan-India relationships, showing dramatically how the latter is a pale shadow of the former. Japan’s $345 billion trade with China far surpasses the $18.5 billion trade with India. China is Japan’s largest trade partner, with Japan’s FDI there totalling $69 billion in 2011, as against its $ 15.9 billion total investment in India. 80,000 Chinese were studying in Japan in 2009 compared to India’s 541. Whatever the degree of deterioration in Japan-China ties, the stakes the two have in each other are enormous.

Japan has been Asia’s leading Asian power for long, regaining that position soon after its devastation during the second World War. For the last two decades, the Japanese economy, suffering from persistent deflation, has eroded Japan’s international standing, with the perceived failure of the Japanese economic model, the country’s fractious politics and the social challenges generated by its ageing population.

Disparity

During this period China has risen, becoming now the world’s second largest economy and the largest exporter too. Political pundits note that never in history have China and Japan risen together and that when one has been rising the other has been in decline, a point that even Chinese diplomats openly make.

Would this mean that if Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to revive Japan’s economy and its international status, putting Japan once again into an upward curve, he is inevitably putting his country into a collision course with China? Closer analysis will show that while Japan has been a formidable power economically, it has been politically undersized because of its defence dependence on the US and the post-war limitations imposed on its defence establishment constitutionally by the US. China’s exaggerated ventilating of its historical grievances about Japan is self-serving as it seeks to give political and moral justification for its actions that stoke tensions in the East China Sea.

It cannot be that China, a nuclear power with military muscle that aims at countering US power in the region through access denial capabilities, really feels threatened by Japan, even if Japanese armed forces cannot be trifled with. Its accusations that nationalism and militarism are being revived in Japan would have more credibility if China were not guilty of the same iniquity.

Need of the hour

Japan seems to be the sharp edge of China’s growing power struggle with the US. The strategic subjugation of Japan would be essential for the rollback of US power from the region. China’s provocations in the South China and East China seas, and now its ADIZ declaration, are calibrated moves to test US resolve, push it to temporise to protect its massive political and economic stakes in China and, in the process, gain more strategic space for itself. The objective is to weaken US hegemony in the region and replace it with China’s own hegemony.

The implications of China’s aggressive posture in the east are serious for us in the west as the forces driving Chinese policies are more important than their geographical expression at a point in time. China is currently presenting a relatively more conciliatory face to us, though it is also insidiously strengthening its territorial claims on Arunachal Pradesh by inventing new Tibetan names for it. We are inclined to assess China’s political conduct based less on its totality than on our bilateral engagement. China is actually not bereft of “soft-power” as even its adversaries, including India, are receptive to justifications for its unacceptable behaviour based on its narrative of past humiliations. China’s conduct towards Japan derives from its growing great power consciousness and the re-ordering of global equations that this must lead to in its view.

We have to face this reality as a rising Asian power. We must therefore solidify our relationship with Japan primarily for accelerating our own growth with injections of Japanese investments and technology, which will serve also to moderate China’s ambitions.