Commentary: The Stealth Threat Has Arrived on our Borders ... What is the Way Ahead?

19 Mar, 2018 | Lt Gen (Dr) V K Saxena (Retd), PVSM,AVSM,VSM, Distinguished Fellow, VIF

Stealth and Air Defence

The stealth muscle in the air threat vehicles of today is one dimension of survivability that is fast becoming a nightmare to the air defence warriors. Why so? Because, survivability directly translates into lethality. The relationship is fairly simple. Stealthy machines, by managing to become near invisible to the sensors of the adversary, not only survive by avoiding the onslaught of the defender's air defence arsenal, but also with all the smart and intelligent arsenal at their disposal, cause disproportionate damage by getting to attack the defender's vulnerabilities nearly undetected and unchallenged. A shadow boxing of sorts, detection of stealthy air threat vehicles is therefore an operational compulsion.

Stealth Threat we Face Today

Has the Stealth threat arrived at our doors? Yes, for a one word answer, if we were to examine some features of the frontline aircrafts with our northern neighbour which are fast approaching operationalisation and are making waves all over in the professional circles.

The case in point is Chengdu J-20 (Black Eagle), a stealthy fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) with the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), optimised for long range strikes. Starting its first flight on 11 Jan 2011, J-20 was planned for induction in Jan 18. In Mar 2017, Chinese media reported that the aircraft has entered initial operational capability phase with the Air Force^1,2. In Sep 17 it was reported that J-20 officially entered military Service with the PLAAF³. In Oct 17, Chinese media reported that Chengdu Airspace Corporation (CAC) has initiated series production for J-20 and is on a path towards achieving full operational capability⁴. Though very few details are available about the said FGFA, it is assessed that the aircraft is likely to have a very strong stealth muscle.

For instance, the alignment of the outer surfaces of the aircraft is are so configured as to have all surfaces at the same angle. Such an arrangement (called Planform Alignment) reflects defender's radar signal in a definite direction away from the mother radar, making the aircraft invisible to the radar. In addition, the aircraft is likely to be painted with the state-of-the-art Radar Absorbing Material based on nano-substances and active carbon coats. This is likely to enable the aircraft to absorb most of the defender's radar energy and reflect back so little as to prohibit the defender's radars to detect the craft.

The avionics of the aircraft are so designed that it rarely offers its underbelly or its heat emitting points ( engine nozzles etc) to a full and sustained view making it difficult for the defender's missiles (especially heat seeking missiles) to lay on the aircraft and track it consistently (a precondition for missile launch).

Another stealthy feature of the aircraft relates to its weapon bays. Unlike the conventional types which always exposed to full view and hence provide strong signals for detection, weapon bays of this aircraft are fully concealed inside the body, only opening for a brief moment of firing. This reduces the aircraft's electronic signatures a great deal.

Subject Matter Experts are comparing the stealthy muscle of J-20 with the likes of F 22 Raptor, F 35 Fighting Falcon, Su- PAK FA, the Japanese ATX, or Korean KAI KF-X (last two still under development). The question is not which aircraft tips the other or otherwise, the grave fact is that the stealth threat in a tangible measure has arrived at our doors. An expert analysis has opined that J-20 has the potential of a high performance stealth aircraft. With the ever strengthening military bond between our neighbours on the North and West, the likelihood of seeing these machines on our West is only a matter of time.

Shenyang J-31 Gyrfalcon or Falcon Hawk is also maturing alongside as a fifth generation twin engine, mid-size, stealthy, multi-purpose medium fighter. Starting with its first flight in Oct 12, the aircraft is due for induction in 2018-19. The aircraft is likely to have comparable stealthy features as quoted above⁵.

If that is the shape of things firming up, where is the doubt that the stealth threat has indeed arrived at our doors. In the years to come, it is also likely to make its unwelcome appearance on our Western border.

Dealing with the Stealth Threat

If we have to counter the deadly threat from such multi-role stealth fighters like J-20, J-31 and others, we need to have sensors that can detect them in the first place. Thanks to many a state-of-the-art stealth technologies on board stealth aircrafts remain undetectable by the old conventional radars. Also, since most of such class of aircrafts have long standoff capabilities, these are likely to strike while remaining in the Beyond Visual Range (BVR) domain. It follows, that if these machines have to be countered, they must be detected electronically by our sensors at long ranges. How do we do it?

Basically, when the Electro Magnetic (EM) waves from the surveillance and other radars of the defender fall on the stealthy (also called Low Observable) aircrafts, these either get absorbed, diluted or deflected in one or multiple directions away from the mother radar. This results in the mother radar getting very weak to nil reflected signal from the aircraft, thus remaining unable to detect the stealth aircraft and paint it on its screen.

Air Defence warriors the world over are working to break the above trick one way or the other. The anti-stealth technologies are referred to as Counter Very Low Observable or CVLO technologies. Some emerging trends in the CVLO domain are briefly summarised below:-

• Experiments have shown that in contrast to the latest ultra high frequency compact radars, lower frequency radars are better suited to detect stealthy targets. Hence countries around the world engaged in the business of anti-stealth radars are producing radars in the lower frequency bands.
• Also, since the stealthy targets reflect back the defender's radar signals away from the mother radar, the trend is to produce radars so that transmitter of radar and its receiver are paced at different location (called Bi-static Radars). Also, for one transmitter, more than one receiver is placed at different locations thus increasing the probability of detection.
• Experts world over are also exploiting the lasers for detection of stealth targets. Laser waves, because of their short wave length, high beam quality, strong direction-ability, and high measuring accuracy, can successfully detect stealth targets. Radars using Laser waves are also called LIDARS (Light Detection and Ranging) ⁶.
• Another prevalent concept is Passive Detection, or more precisely, Passive Coherent Location (PCL). In this, the radars do not transmit any radar energy but achieve detection of targets based on receiving electromagnetic waves (EM) waves that hit the stealthy targets from multiple domains, such as Digital Audio Broadcast etc..

Focus India

While much is happening all round the world, what does it mean in our scenario? A possible way forward is suggested as under:-

• Since the stealth threat is very much alive at our doors, it is imperative that all new radars being procured for target detection and fire control must be stealth capable.
• It is fortunate that several legacy missile system held with the forces actually had the sensors in the low frequency bands, and hence capable of detecting stealthy aircrafts. These must be kept alive.
• Efforts must be made by our R&D to provide stealth capable radars to the forces. In this, head start is available along multiple routes of Joint Ventures/Memorandum of Understanding/Transfer of Technology (JV/MoU/ToT) etc. with foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) under the "Make in India" initiative.
• In the context of producing anti stealth equipment, what applies to the defence public sector is also equally applicable to private industry. Since the stealth muscle in our scenario is just about maturing, it is only going to become a more and more prominent feature of the futuristic air threat. Opportunities to develop stealth detectable radars for indigenous consumption, as well as for the export market either on the 'go alone' mode, or through technological tie ups, is thus an emerging business opportunity.
• In the Def Expo 2016, some radars were stated to be able to detect birds and unmanned aerial vehicles, sense-n-avoid situations, foliage penetration and portable ground surveillance. There is a need to build further on these capabilities and grow into the anti-stealth domain.

Indian Position

With what has been stated under the head 'Focus India' above, the net Indian position as of date and actions required in the foreseeable future can be summarised as under:-

• There is a need to start factoring the stealth threat in all qualitative and quantitative analyses of air threat from our potential adversaries and develop strategies to counter the same through multiple mediums. These may include optimising the existing inventory of radars, developing and procuring new anti-stealth equipment and putting out the cyber counter capability.
• Towards optimising, the vintage low frequency radars capable of CVLO must be retained and keep alive. As to new inductions, there is a need to insist that the future indigenous development of sensors is stealth capable (capability already stands demonstrated). Besides this, the Indian R&D establishment must venture into niche CVLO technologies by catching on the world trends and getting a head-start through joint ventures etc.
• And finally, the cyber warriors must train their soft arsenal towards debilitating the electronics and electromagnetics on board the stealthy machines of fifth generation warfare.

Such is the exciting and dynamic field of stealth and anti-stealth. The eternal cause-effect duel between the prosecutors of air threat and defenders there from, is only going to become more intense and interesting in so far as it pertains to the 'magic of invisibility' on one end and the resolve to 'find the invisible' at the other. And with stealth already at our door, we need to equip ourselves to deal with the same adequately

End Notes:

1. https://wwwscamp.com/news/china/article/207732/china's-j20-stealth-fighter-flies-fighting-forces-says-stat-media. Accessed on 04 Jan 18
2. https://www.en.wikipedia.org. ChengduJ20. Accessed on 04 Jan 18
3. Popular Mechanics 29 Sep 17 >china's-J20-stealth-fighter-is-operational. Accessed on 04 Jan 18
4. Jane's Weapon Systems 26 Oct 17> cina's-J20 -fighter-moves-into-series-production. Accessed on 04 Jan 18
5. https://www. nationalinterest.org>blog>america's-F35-stealth-fighter-vs-china's new j 31 who wins. Accessed on 04 Jan 18
6. https://www.metak.de/doppler-lidar. Accessed on 04 Jan 18. Accessed on 04 Jan 18

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

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Image Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/438397344957124328/?autologin=true

गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान में हालिया विरोध क्यों

6 Feb, 2018 | Prateek Joshi, Research Associate, VIF

गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान काउंसिल, इस्लामाबाद द्वारा आयकर (अनुकूलन) कानून, 2012 के तहत प्रत्यक्ष कर लागू करने का ऐलान होने के बाद हाल में समूचे गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान में जबरदस्त विरोध प्रदर्शन शुरू हो गए। विरोध की अगुआई अंजुमन-ए-ताजिरान (जिसका मोटा अर्थ व्यापारियों की समिति है क्योंकि ताजिर का अर्थ व्यापारी होता है) और अवामी एक्शन कमेटी (एएसी) ने मिलकर किया था। कुछ दिन पहले प्रदर्शनकारियों ने कर के प्रति अपना विरोध जताने के लिए कराकरोम क्षेत्र की हाड़ कंपाने वाली ठंड में भी स्कार्डू से गिलगित शहर तक (करीब 150 किलोमीटर दूरी) “लंबा जुलूस” निकालने की घोषणा कर डाली थी।

भारतीय मीडिया ने इन घटनाओं पर झटपट प्रतिक्रिया दे डाली और समाचार चैनलों ने इस क्षेत्र के विवादित दर्जे का हवाला देते हुए इन्हें स्वतंत्रता पाने के लिए सत्ता के खिलाफ आंदोलन बता डाला। हालांकि पाकिस्तान सरकार ने दबाव में आकर अधिसूचना वापस ले ली, लेकिन जो हालात बने, उन्हें देखकर गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान इलाके के माहौल पर चर्चा करने के लिए बहुत कुछ है। इसीलिए यदि गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान के माहौल और पाकिस्तान सरकार तथा उसकी संस्थाओं के साथ उसके रिश्ते को समझना है तो वहां चल रहे खेल को, विशेषकर अगुआई कर रही अवामी एक्शन कमेटी के खेल को और उसके प्रमुख कारणों को समझना जरूरी है।

20-22 धार्मिक और राष्ट्रवादी दलों के समूह अवामी एक्शन कमेटी की स्थापना करीब चार वर्ष पहले हुई थी और 2014 में गेहूं की सब्सिडी खत्म करने के पाकिस्तान सरकार के फैसले का विरोध करने पर वह बहुत लोकप्रिय हो गई। करिश्माई वकील और तत्कालीन संयोजक अहसान अली के नेतृत्व में अवामी एक्शन कमेटी के आम लोगों से जुड़ाव और सबको जुटाने की उसकी रणनीतियों ने उसे जनता में बहुत लोकप्रिय बना दिया। पहले किए गए विरोध में अवामी एक्शन कमेटी ने कारगिलवासियों को मिलने वाली सब्सिडी का हवाला देते हुए कारगिल चलो का नारा दिया। यह बड़ा मुद्दा है क्योंकि पड़ोसी लद्दाख को गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान के मुकाबले अधिक फायदे और राजनीतिक प्रतिनिधित्व मिलता है।

दुर्भाग्य से 2014 में ही अहसान अली को संयोजक के पद से इस्तीफा देना पड़ा, जिसके बाद उन्होंने एक्शन तहरीक की बुनियाद डाली, जिसने अवामी एक्शन कमेटी को समर्थन दे दिया। दूसरी ओर अवामी एक्शन कमेटी को नए अध्यक्ष मौलाना सुल्तान रईस मिल गए, जो सुन्नी मौलवी हैं और जिनके कुख्यात संगठन सिपह-ए-सहाबा से निकले देवबंदी संगठन अहले सुन्नत वल जमात (एएसडब्ल्यूजे) से करीबी रिश्ते हैं। एएसडब्ल्यूजे की गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान शाखा के मुखिया काजी नसीर अहमद से मौलाना की नजदीकियों से कोई अनजान नहीं है फिर भी उनकी वाक्पटुता और लोगों को कायल करने की क्षमता ने लोगों को उनका मुरीद बना दिया है।

रईस जैसे पाकिस्तान समर्थक नेताओं के जरिये गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान जनांदोलनों में घुसपैठ कर पाकिस्तानी सरकार ने लोगों को पाकिस्तान के साथ रहने के पक्ष में कर लिया है। इन विरोध प्रदर्शनों की गहरी पड़ताल करने से यह समझने में मदद मिलेगी कि रईस की अगुआई में अवामी एक्शन कमेटी कैसे लोगों के मन पर काबू करने में तो कामयाब हुई ही है, सत्ता की मनचाही राह पर लोगों को चलाने में भी उसे सफलता किस तरह मिली है।

अवामी एक्शन कमेटी गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान में विवाद की बात को मानती है और गाहे-बगाहे ऐसे मुद्दे उठाती भी रही है, जो लोगों को सीधे प्रभावित करते हैं। मौलाना रईस ने अपने एक बयान में कहा था, “गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान विवादित इलाका है और इसके नागरिकों पर कर लादना गैर-कानूनी तथा असंवैधानिक है। जब सरकार गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान की जनता से कर वसूलना चाहती है तो उन्हें देश का नागरिक करार दे दिया जाता है और जब वे समान अधिकार मांगते हैं तो कहा जाता है कि यह विवादित क्षेत्र है।” फिर भी यह संगठन मानता है कि गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान की समस्याओं का एक ही हल है - पाकिस्तान में विलय।

हालिया प्रदर्शनों की प्रकृतिः “टैक्स दो हुकूक लो” का मतलब

आदेश सार्वजनिक होने के फौरन बाद जब विरोध प्रदर्शनों में अलग-अलग गुटों के लोगों ने अपने मतभेद भुलाकर समान उद्देश्य के लिए जबरदस्त एकता दिखाई तो अवामी एक्शन लीग ने (अंजुमन-ए-ताजिरान के साथ मिलकर) पूरे गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान में बंद का ऐलान कर दिया।

“टैक्स दो हुकूक लो” और “नो टैक्सेशन विदआउट रिप्रेजेंटेशन” जैसे नारे प्रदर्शनकारियों को जुटाने का जरिया बन गए। ‘हुकूक’ शब्द के यहां दो व्यापक अर्थ हैं। पहला अर्थ बहुमत के इस नजरिये से जुड़ा है कि गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान को पांचवें प्रांत के तौर पर प्रतिनिधित्व (संसद में सीटें और आम चुनावों में मतदान का अधिकार) और संवैधानिक मान्यता दी जानी चाहिए। दूसरा राष्ट्रवादियों (जिनकी संख्या बहुत कम है) का नजरिया है, जो ऊपर बताए गए अधिकारों की ही मांग करता है। राष्ट्रवादी आगे चलकर संयुक्त राष्ट्र द्वारा अधिकृत जनमत संग्रह के जरिये पाकिस्तान से आजादी चाहते हैं क्योंकि उन्हें लगता है कि निष्पक्ष जनमत संग्रह होने पर गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान की जनता पाकिस्तान से आजादी का रास्ता ही चुनेगी। राष्ट्रवादियों के अनुसार गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान का पाकिस्तान समर्थक रुख आतंकवाद विरोधी अधिनियम, 1997 की धारा 4 जैसे कठोर कदमों का नतीजा है।

भारत का पहलू

भारतीय मीडिया द्वारा की गई व्यापक कवरेज को देखते हुए और प्रदर्शन विवादित क्षेत्र में होने के कारण भारत का पहलू भी विरोध गहराने के साथ गहराता गया। किंतु विरोधाभास भी उभरने लगे।

प्हले तो भारतीय मीडिया के कारण ही पाकिस्तानी मीडिया भी हरकत में आया क्योंकि भारत की ओर से खबरें आने से पहले दो दिन तक तो वह विरोध की अनदेखी ही करता रहा। फिर भी भारतीय मीडिया की भूमिका के कारण ही पाकिस्तान सरकार की नजरों में आने वाली अवामी एक्शन कमेटी ने गिलगित शहर में भारत-विरोधी जुलूस निकाला क्योंकि उसके मुताबिक भारत मुद्दे पर बेजा ध्यान दे रहा था।

एक ओर गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान के मुख्यमंत्री ने विरोध करने वालों को भारतीय एजेंट करार दिया, लेकिन दूसरी ओर सत्ता समर्थक मौलवी की अगुआई वाली अवामी एक्शन कमेटी ने उन्हीं प्रदर्शनकारियों को इकट्ठा किया। इसकी व्याख्या इस वैकल्पिक सिद्धांत से हो सकती है कि विरोध प्रदर्शन संभवतः एजेंसियों के इशारे पर यह जांचने के लिए किए गए हों कि पांचवें प्रांत के मकसद के लिए गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान के लोगों में कितनी एकता है।

पाकिस्तान सरकार संयुक्त राष्ट्र के उस प्रस्ताव से वाकिफ है, जिसमें पाकिस्तान से कहा गया है कि कश्मीर विवाद के समाधान की दिशा में पहला कदम उठाते हुए वह अपने कब्जे वाले कश्मीर (पीओके) से सेना हटाए। लेकिन वह गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान के निवासियों को यह जताने की कोशिश कर रहा है कि प्रांत का दर्जा हासिल करने और पूर्ण अधिकार प्राप्त करने की उनकी आकांक्षा को भारत पूरा नहीं होने दे रहा है।

अगला विश्वसनीय कदम, जिस पर पाकिस्तान सरकार अभी विचार कर रही है, ऐसी संवैधानिक व्यवस्था से जुड़ा है, जिसमें गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान को शक्ति हस्तांतरण एवं राष्ट्रीय प्रतिनिधित्व से संबंधित 2009 के संवैधानिक आदेश से कुछ बेहतर हासिल हो सके। इस संभावना पर पिछले हफ्ते पाकिस्तानी संसद में चर्चा की गई थी, लेकिन अधिक प्रगति नहीं हो सकी। दूसरी ओर भारत सरकार पाकिस्तान के कब्जे वाले कश्मीर के मामले में अपने रुख पर अड़ी हुई है और (चीन का पाकिस्तान आर्थिक गलियारा गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान से होकर निकाले जाने के विरोध में) चीन के बेल्ट एंड रोड कार्यक्रम का बहिष्कार तक कर चुकी है। लेकिन गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान मसले पर वह अभी तक कोई सुसंगत नीति तैयार नहीं कर पाई है।

(लेखक विवेकानंद रिसर्च फाउंडेशन, नई दिल्ली में रिसर्च एसोसिएट हैं। लेख में उनके निजी विचार हैं और वीआईएफ का उनसे सहमत होना आवश्यक नहीं है)

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Translated by: Shiwanand Dwivedi (Original Article in English)

Commentary: Japan’s Challenges and Indo-Japanese Connection - Perspectives for 2018

5 Feb, 2018 | Aftab Seth

In the new year, Japan under Shinzo Abe faces many challenges on the foreign policy front. Some of these are perennial problems and others are relatively new.

Among the continuing challenges is the threat of North Korea and its ballistic missile and nuclear arsenals. Japan has had bitter experience in this regard as the Kim regime has regularly shot missiles directly over the Japanese islands and into the Japan Sea. In this context, India has been a staunch supporter of the Japanese position; this was witnessed in the joint statements issued after Abe's visit to India in September and during Modi's visit to Japan in 2016 November. This cooperation is set to continue.

China, and the delicate relations both India and Japan have with the Middle Kingdom will remain a focus of both countries. Japan needs China's help to rein-in Pyongyang, though Japan itself continues to face Chinese threats over the Japanese Senkaku Islands claimed by China. India has supported the Japanese position in this matter.

Though both Abe and Modi have good relations with President Trump, India and Japan will continue to exchange views on how to handle the somewhat erratic turns in US policy. They both have important defense and strategic connections with the USA, bilaterally and in a triangular way as well.

South Korea is one of the other problem areas for Japan. The recrudescence of the 'comfort women’ issue and the expressed intention of the Korean leaders to have a second look at the 2015 Agreement has caused widespread indignation in Japan. India has strong economic and strategic relationship with Korea. It will be in our mutual interest to help Japan and Korea overcome their differences on this emotive issue.

Russia has good relations with India going back decades but Japan has yet to sign a peace treaty with Russia since the end of the war in 1945! This is so despite good relations between Abe and Putin.

2018 will see a further strengthening of defence ties between India and Japan. Starting in 2000, with PM Vajpayee and Modi at the helm, the two countries have seen expansion of cooperation between the two navies, coast guards and other branches of our defence forces every year. The Malabar naval exercises among USA, Japan and India are now an annual event.

The largest ever was held in July 2017 and 2018 is likely to see an even more elaborate show of force.

Abe mooted a quadrilateral connection between India, Japan, Australia and the USA when he spoke to our Parliament in August 2007. His vision became a reality when the four powerful naval nations met on the occasion of the ASEAN Summit in Manila and the East Asia Summit which followed. With the Philippines too India has a growing naval cooperation programme.

Japan will continue to build on the foundations of its work in our North East where it is assisting in extending the infrastructure of roads, railways and waterways. The objective of both India and Japan in this strategically important part of India is to improve connectivity with Myanmar and the larger ASEAN region. Both Japan and India pay highest attention to strengthening ties with all ten ASEAN countries. Presence of leaders of all ASEAN countries in Delhi on the occasion of the Republic Day on the 26th January 2018 dramatically underlines India’s commitment to this vital region. Abe himself showed his seriousness of purpose when after his electoral victory in December 2012, he went to Vietnam in January 2013 and in the space of that one year went to all 10 ASEAN nations.

In November 2016 and September 2017, both Abe and Modi affirmed their partnership in the development of Africa. Mombasa has been identified as the port which will facilitate the entry of Japanese and Indian capital, matrial and human, to assist in growth of African economies.

The underlying principle of India's work with Japan is to ensure the safety and freedom of the seas, to advance the cause of open societies adhering to the rule of law and to discourage hegemonic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

(The author is a retired Foreign Service Officer and a regarded analyst)

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

What does the Economic Survey tell us about National Security?

5 Feb, 2018 | Arvind Gupta, Director - VIF

What does India’s Economic Survey 2017-18 tell us about national security? This may sound an unusual question because in traditional understanding of national security and economy are two separate entities which are not discussed together. The two concepts do not meet except when it comes to providing resources for defence and law and order functions. Economic Surveys do not generally talk about national security.

However, with a broader understanding of national security emerging, it is now a realized that a country must have a sound economy if it has to have robust national security. Economy is the basis of national security. Weak economies are prone to high degree of security risk. Failed states have been recognized as breeding grounds for terrorism, drug running, human trafficking and similar destabilizing factors. Jobs, gender, skills, science and technology, agriculture, climate change, external trade and resources are part of national security discourse today. These are the issues which the Economic Survey deals with in detail. Therefore, the watchers of national security trends should read carefully what the Economic Survey has to say about the health of national economy because of its direct impact on national security

The Economic Survey is upbeat on immediate prospects of economic growth. It estimates that the economy is likely to grow by 7 to 7.5 percent in the year 2018-19. This is good news for the country. But the Survey also cautions that the high oil prices and the likely steep correction in the exuberant and expansive Indian stock market can adversely impact economic growth. The twin balance sheet problem – the weak balance sheets of the banks and that of their clients to whom they have lent – has not been resolved as yet although some steps have been taken in this area. Further, it cautions that the cycle of low investment and low saving rates continues. Investment seems to be picking up but these are still early days. This means that higher economic growth rates cannot be taken for granted.

Hopefully, the higher economic growth that the Survey talks about will translate into more revenues for the Government, leading to greater allocations for defence, diplomacy and internal security. However, the revenues of the Government depend upon receipts, which essentially means higher collection of taxes.

The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has led to a fundamental restructuring of the indirect taxation system in the country. The Economic Survey has a whole chapter on the GST. Its findings are clear. After the initial hiccups, the GST system is stabilizing. This is good news. But we will probably have to wait a few more months to be sure of how much steady revenue will be generated by the GST. Last few months’ collections have been fluctuating. These revenues will have to be divided between the Center and the States. At the moment one can be sure that there has been a healthy increase in the number of indirect tax payers. One can be reasonably hopeful that the impact of GST on national security will be positive because the Government will have a steady stream of revenues which would only increase as the economy grows.

On the direct taxation front, the situation is not so sanguine. The worry here is that tax to GDP ratio in India is only little above 10 percent, one of the lowest in the world. More people need to be brought in the tax net. Some improvement has taken place but we will have to see where there is buoyancy in direct tax collections next year. The Survey also underlines a worrying trend that tier 2 and tier 3 tax collection local authorities are under-collecting the taxes within their powers.

The Economic Survey points to four “headwinds” the Indian economy might face in the near future, namely: Reduced opportunities for exports due to rising protectionism following a backlash against globalization; difficulties in transferring resources from low productivity to higher productivity sectors due to structural factors; lack of human capital needed against demands of the high-technology knowledge economy: and, stress on agriculture due to climate change. These are long-term challenges which will not go away immediately. The country will have to be take many steps to address these challenges.

It is ironic that despite having had a superb record of high quality contributions to world science, India is nowhere near being a global leader in this area. On the technology front, India is a net importer of technology. Brain drain is rampant. A highly intelligent workforce available in the country is being used by foreign companies who are global leaders. Our record in becoming self-reliant in strategic sectors and strategic technologies is below par except in a few fields like space and atomic energy. The country has not been able to build a proper innovation system which can encourage and absorb the desi inventors and innovators.

The Economic Survey has done well to flag the low spending – less than 1 percent of GDP - in the R&D sector. This has direct bearing on national security. Other countries spend much higher percentage of GDP on R&D. Today, the country is importing nearly 70 percent of its defence needs and it has virtually zero indigenous cyber security industry. The Economic Survey says categorically that spending on R&D should be doubled. Additional resources for science and technologies should come from the private sector and universities. It recommends that in addition to the ease of doing business, the country should create a climate for “ease of doing science”. It makes a vital point: India should invest in science and mathematics education, and take a “more mission-driven approach in areas such as dark matter, genomics, energy storage, agriculture, mathematics and cyber physical systems.” These are eminent suggestions which will not only improve the economy but also the national security.

Although the Economic Survey does not say it explicitly, climate change is a major national security threat. Adverse consequences of climate change on agriculture have been dealt with in the Economic Survey in detail. The Survey cites research to the effect that warming of the climate can lead up to 25 percent reduction in crop yields in unirrigated areas. Extreme weather events would become more frequent leading to huge dislocations and more expenditure on disaster management.

Gender issues are an important part of security discourse today. It is the women and children who bear the brunt of wars, migrations, violence, draughts, floods, pandemics and famines. The Economic Survey has some interesting analysis of the gender gap in the country, and of missing female children. The fact remains that discrimination against women, inherent in our socio-economic structures, weakens the country. It is not enough to worship the female as Shakti, it is equally important to empower her. A country cannot count to be strong unless half of its population is cared for.

The key take away from the Economic Survey is that the structure of the Indian economy is changing rapidly both due to a string of fundamental economic reforms undertaken in the last few years and because of the external factors like the relentless march of technology and the global uncertainty about oil prices which are linked to geopolitics. The Economic Survey puts forward a balanced and reasonable analysis of the Indian economy. It offers hope for economic recovery but also cautions about the pitfalls. National security rests on good economic performance. One hopes that the next edition of Economic Survey will have a chapter on national security also.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

Commentary: From Football Icon to Liberia President - Can George Weah Lead Liberia?

31 Jan, 2018 | Neha Sinha, Research Associate, VIF

Liberia is a country in West Africa which is bordered by Sierra Leone, Guinea and Ivory Coast with an area of 111,369 square kilometers and population of approximately 4.6 million people. It has a republic system of government where the president is the chief of state and head of the government. The country is in the process of reconstructing a mixed economy. This will encompass restricted form of individual freedom merged with weak centralised economic planning and government directives. Liberia is a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). For fourteen years the country remained under civil war and during this phase of conflict more than 250,000 people died and around 1.3 million people were displaced from their homes.

Political Scenario in Liberia

Liberia has faced a turbulent history marred by years of civil war and the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The country has not witnessed a peaceful transition of power since 1944. Mrs. Sirleaf became the first woman to be elected the Head of State in Africa in 2005. The country faced two civil wars, first from 1989 to 1996 and the second which occurred from 1999 to 2003. Mrs. Sirleaf, in her 12 years of power, tried to make the country a better place to live in, as the two civil wars had left Liberia; once a moderately prosperous country, in ruins. For her contribution to democracy, she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2011. Despite her efforts, the country remains one of the world’s poorest and she has been criticised over constant poverty and corruption charges. Half of the population of Liberia remains poor and about half of them suffer from inadequate food security. Generating employment remains the country’s most important domestic priority.

On the 26th of December 2017, the country experienced the first peaceful transition of power in 73 years. After the completion of two terms of Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, a former international footballer Mr. George Weah was elected President of Liberia. It was Mr. Weah’s second attempt at the presidency as a candidate. In 2006, he lost his first attempt to Mrs. Sirleaf. The Liberians were commended by the United Nations Security Council for the conflict-free conduct of elections. Apart from its people and government, the Security Council has also praised the political leaders and civil society organizations for their commendable job. Also, the media was applauded for the peaceful conduct of elections.

India-Liberia Relations at a Glance

India-Liberia relations date back over six decades of strong bonds of friendship and economic cooperation. It was President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the first Head of State from Liberia to visit India in the year 2013 when the following agreements were signed between the two countries:

• Joint Commission between both the nations were established;
• MoU between Foreign Service Institutes of both the nations;
• In the field of Oil and Gas - MoU on cooperation;
• Decision regarding funding of power transmission and distribution project in Liberia, with an agreement between Exim Bank and Government of Liberia for a Line of Credit of US$ 144 million.

Prior to this, the only visit was by President Samuel Doe in 1983, that too, to attend the Non-Alignment Summit held in Delhi. In the year 2009, Dr. Shashi Tharoor visited Liberia which was the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister since 1971, where he brought to limelight the interest of several Indian companies in various economic sectors for development - as Liberia is rich in mineral resources. Moreover, the country is rich in agricultural resources like rubber, coffee and cocoa. In 2015, Minister of State, Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Mr. G Siddeshwara went to Liberia personal invitation of Prime Minister’s to invite Mrs. Sirleaf for the third India Africa Forum (IAFS) Summit at New Delhi. During her address in the IAFS, she thanked the Indian Government and its people for the support that India had extended to Liberia to combat the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). She mentioned that the level of trade between the two countries continues to expand and access to India’s Duty Free Tariff Preferred Status enhances the partnership further.

At present, there are around 2000 Indian nationals settled in Liberia. Initially, the Indian community was mainly engaged in trading industries, however; nowadays, the diaspora is also moving towards manufacturing sector. The diaspora has made substantial contributions to the Liberian economy and the trade during the year 2016-17 stood at US$153.96 million. The main items of export to Liberia are pharmaceuticals products, food items, steel, iron, plastic, etc. - while wood, metals scrap and natural rubber are the items that India imports from Liberia. In the year 2017 -18, India provided 70 training slots to Liberia under the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme. The Indian Council of Cultural Relations also granted fully paid scholarships to six person for post-graduation. Liberia has shown its complete support for India’s desire for a permanent membership of the United Nation Security Council. In addition, India’s contribution of two contingents to United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), both 125-member strong has been well appreciated by Liberia. It was in the year 2007, that the first-ever women’s contingent of United Nation Peacekeeping i.e. the Female Formed Police Unit (FFPU) was sent to the United Nations Mission in Liberia.

To further strengthen the relationship, a significant role can be played by the establishment of an Indian Embassy in Liberia. India does not have a Liberian Mission in New Delhi. The opening of a Mission will give both the nations an edge to facilitate the bilateral movement of people and goods. This, in the long run will propel and promote business relationships between the two nations.

Conclusion

At present, the country looks forward for a better and efficient leadership of George Weah. It would not be an exaggeration to say that much is expected from the newly-elected president to make his country a better place to live in. A wise man once said “With great power comes great responsibility” -- a quote which couldn’t have been a better yardstick for Mr. Weah and his country in the months ahead.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

Commentary: India’s Missile Arsenal - An Overview

31 Jan, 2018 | Brig Gurmeet Kanwal, Visiting Fellow, VIF

On January 18, 2018, the personnel of the Indian armed forces test-fired the 5,000-km-plus Agni-5 Interim Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM). The test, conducted from Kalam Island in the Bay of Bengal, achieved all the mission parameters that had been stipulated. The last test of Agni-5 had been conducted on December 26, 2016. After additional user trials over the next twelve to eighteen months, the nuclear-capable Agni-5 missile will be inducted into India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC). Normally, five to seven tests are carried out, including technical trials and user trials, before a missile is inducted into the arsenal. On the operationalisation of Agni-5, all targets in China will come within range from India. The Chinese are reported to be concerned at this development.

The 4,000-km Agni-4 IRBM was successfully test-fired by personnel of the SFC from the same launch facility on January 2, 2017. After these two tests, the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrence received a good boost.

Under the aegis of its Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP), which was approved by the Government on 26 July 1983, India has achieved considerable success in ballistic missile development. The Prithvi Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) (1-metre diameter, 150 km to 350 km range, liquid-fuelled) and the multiple models of Agni IRBM (800 km to 5,000 km range, solid-fuelled) have provided India with an assured retaliation capability. Though exact details are not known in the public domain, DRDO spokespersons have shared sufficient information to allow for an assessment of the missiles’ capabilities. While the Agni-5 is still under development, the Agni- 4 is reported to be ready for deployment. According to a Ministry of Defence press release, ‘Agni-3 was inducted to strengthen India’s strategic might and joined Agni-1, Agni-2, Prithvi-2 and Dhanush (the naval version of Prithvi capable of being launched from ships even under rough sea conditions).’

Agni IRBMs are the mainstay of the surface-to-surface leg of India’s strategic forces. With the exception of the Agni-1, all Agni missiles are fully solid-fuelled with carbon composite heat shields for re-entry protection. All of the Agni variants are known to be extremely accurate and use navigation systems based on a combination of ring laser gyros and inertial navigation. Presently, at least two Agni missile groups are reported to be in service.

India’s successful experience in space research, particularly the launch of multiple satellites on a single rocket, has endowed the scientists with the capability to master MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) technology. In view of the R&D developments in China, it was considered expedient to commence a research programme on MIRV systems as a technology demonstrator. Costing Rs. 100 crore per missile, the Agni-5, with a range of 5,000 km-plus, is known to be capable of carrying MIRV warheads. At its maximum range, the Agni-5 can reach even Harbin, China’s northernmost city (according to Chinese officials, the maximum range of Agni-5 is 8,000 km). A canisterised version of the Agni-5 was first test-fired on January 15, 2015. The process of canisterisation means the warhead will be mated with the missile for storage, not stored separately and mounted on the missile shortly before launch.

Dr V K Saraswat, a former DRDO chief, said the Agni-5 had ‘ushered in fantastic opportunities in…building Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons and launching mini/micro satellites on demand’. The Agni-5, like Dongfeng 31A, is a canisterised, road mobile missile. According to Avinash Chander, director, Advanced Systems Laboratory, Hyderabad, ‘With the canister having been successfully developed, all India’s future land-based strategic missiles will be canisterised as well.’ The DRDO is also reported to have plans to develop the Agni-6 Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), which will be capable of carrying a 3-ton payload of MIRVs and manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles (MaRVs). The range of this missile, made of light weight composite materials, is expected to be over 5,500 km. However, the existence of such a programme has been officially denied.

Prithvi-1 (150 km-range), Prithvi-2 (250 km, IAF version) and Prithvi-3 (350 km) Surface to Surface Missiles (SSM) are all nuclear-capable. Prithvi missiles are liquid fuelled with strap-down inertial guidance and a manoeuvrable trajectory; accuracies are claimed to be in single digits and the circular error probability (CEP) is likely to be less than 100 metre. These dual-use missiles are capable of carrying 500 kg to 1,000 kg warheads. It is now being increasingly believed that the Prithvi-1 missile was never intended to carry nuclear warheads. Six Prithvi missile groups are reported to be in service.

As soon as the Agni-1 regiments are fully operational and the missiles have been produced in the required numbers, it should be possible to retire the Prithvi missiles from service with the SFC. However, these missiles are likely to continue to be used for conventional conflict and as part of the ballistic missile defence (BMD) technology development programme till these become obsolete. A modified Prithvi missile is the interceptor in the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) system for exo-atmospheric interception. It is also used as a target for an incoming missile.

India has a few other missiles in its arsenal. The Dhanush SSM is a ship-to-surface variant of Prithvi-3 with a maximum range of 350 km, while Nirbhay is a subsonic (Mach 0.7) cruise missile with a maximum range of 1,000 km. Of the Tomahawk and Kh-57 class, it carries a 450 kg high-explosive warhead and was successfully tested in November 2017. Prahar is a highly manoeuvrable, precision-strike tactical SSM with a range of 150 km and is armed with a conventional warhead. Comparable to the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), it has been conceived as a quick-reaction battlefield support weapon system that fills the range gap between multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRLs) and SRBMs. All of these missiles have been indigenously developed by the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), Bengaluru, and have been produced by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Secunderabad. The rate of production of Agni missiles is reported to be twelve to eighteen per annum.

India does not maintain its missile launchers on hair-trigger alerts as India’s ‘no first use’ posture does not require launch-on-warning (LoW) and launch-through-attack (LTA) capabilities. Alert levels are planned to be progressively raised based on intelligence inputs or for the purpose of signalling. As India shares its western boundary with Pakistan, the time of flight of ballistic missiles ranges from eight to thirteen minutes for a target between 600 km and 2,000 km away. Deployment sites – hides and firing positions – are selected keeping this in mind, besides other tactical parameters. Depending on the level of alert being maintained, preparation time for launch can vary from one to four hours. When deployed, missile batteries would be provided logistics support by the nearest field formation of the Army and helped with their local defence where feasible.

(The writer is Visiting Fellow, VIF and Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi)

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)

उज्बेकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान के बीच बढ़ती सहभागिता

30 Jan, 2018 | Dr Rashmini Koparkar

अफगानिस्तान के राष्ट्रपति अशरफ गनी ने हाल में उज्बेकिस्तान का आधिकारिक दौरा किया। उज्बेक राष्ट्रपति शावकत मिर्जियोवेव के साथ उनकी मुलाकात में व्यापार, सुरक्षा, विद्युत और शिक्षा सहित कई अन्य क्षेत्रों में 20 समझौतों पर हस्ताक्षर हुए। जहां तक दोनों देशों के बीच संबंधों की बात है तो पिछले एक वर्ष के दौरान उनके रिश्ते काफी प्रगाढ़ हुए हैं और राजनीतिक संवाद के साथ-साथ काफी आर्थिक सक्रियता बढ़ी है। चारों ओर भूभाग से घिरे इन दोनों देशों में नजदीकियां बढ़ना इस क्षेत्र के लिए स्वागतयोग्य है।

ताशकंद-काबुल संबंध एक दृष्टि में

उज्बेकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान ‘रणनीतिक रूप’ से एक दूसरे के नजदीक स्थित पड़ोसी हैं। उज्बेकिस्तान की सीमा सभी मध्य एशियाई गणतंत्रों (सीएआर) और अफगानिस्तान से लगती है। दूसरी ओर अफगानिस्तान दक्षिण और मध्य एशिया के बीच एक सेतु की तरह है। कुल पांच मध्य एशियाई देशों में से तीन देशों तुर्कमेनिस्तान, उज्बेकिस्तान और ताजिकिस्तान के साथ इसकी सीमा लगती है। चूंकि ये दोनों देश चारों ओर जमीन से ही घिरे यानी लैंडलॉक्ड हैं, ऐसे में व्यापार, परिवहन और संपर्क के लिए एक दूसरे पर काफी निर्भर हैं। दोनों देश 137 किलोमीटर लंबी सीमा साझा करते हैं और अमु दारया नदी के रूप में एक प्राकृतिक सीमा ही है।

उज्बेकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान ऐतिहासिक साझा समानताओं और नस्लीय-सांस्कृतिक जुड़ाव रखते हैं, क्योंकि अतीत में लंबे समय तक दोनों देश एकसमान भू-राजनीतिक परिदृश्य में साथ रह चुके हैं। सोवियत संघ के दौर में सीमा-पार से संपर्क गतिविधियां काफी अधिक थीं खासतौर से अफगानिस्तान में हस्तक्षेप (1979 से 1989 के बीच) के दौरान ये बहुत बढ़ गई थीं। उज्बेकिस्तान-अफगानिस्तान के बीच अफगान सीमा के निकट स्थित हेरातन नामक स्थान पर 1982 में मित्रता सेतु बनाया गया जो अमु दारया के बीच कड़ी को मजबूत बनाता है। उज्बेक आजादी के बाद 1991 में दोनों देशों के बीच कूटनीतिक संबंध स्थापित हुए जो काबुल पर तालिबानी नियंत्रण के बाद टूट गए। 1990 के दशक में उज्बेकिस्तान चरमपंथ और हिंसक अतिवाद जैसी चुनौतियों से जूझ रहा था। ताजिक गृह युद्ध (1992-97) और तालिबान के उभार के बाद ये चुनौतियां और ज्यादा बढ़ गई थीं। उज्बेक सरकार सीमा पार से होने वाली गड़बड़ी को लेकर सशंकित थी तो उसने 1997 में मित्रता सेतु को बंद कर दिया जिसे 2002 में पुनः खोला गया। अमेरिका में 9/11 के आतंकी हमला इस क्षेत्र के हालात बदलने में निर्णायक रहा। उस समय उज्बेकिस्तान ने कार्शी-खानबाद में अमेरिका को एयरबेस उपलब्ध कराने के साथ ही सीमावर्ती शहर तरमेज में जर्मन इकाई को आधार उपलब्ध कराया। आंदिजान प्रकरण को लेकर अमेरिका-उज्बेकिस्तान में हुए मनमुटाव के बाद 2005 में हालांकि उज्बेकिस्तान ने अमेरिकी बेस बंद कर दिया। अमेरिकी सैन्य बलों के लिए आपूर्ति का एक प्रमुख मार्ग नॉर्दर्न डिस्ट्रिब्यूशन नेटवर्क (एनडीएन) का रास्ता मित्रता सेतु से होकर जाता था जिसके माध्यम से नाटो सेनाओं के लिए 70 प्रतिशत तेल की आपूर्ति होती थी। उज्बेकिस्तान-अफगानिस्तान रिश्तों में पिछले कुछ वर्षों के दौरान नाटकीय रूप से सुधार हुआ है जहां व्यापार, परिवहन, विद्युत इत्यादि क्षेत्रों में सहभागिता बढ़ी है:-

• तरमेज से हेरातन के बीच एक रेलवे लाइन के माध्यम से गेहूं-आटा, ईंधन, उर्वरक और उपभोक्ता वस्तुओं की ताजिकिस्तान से अफगानिस्तान को आपूर्ति होती है।
• वर्ष 2011 में उज्बेक की राष्टीय रेल कंपनी तेमिर युल्लारी ने 75 किलोमीटर लंबे हेरातन-मजार-ए-शरीफ रेलवे नेटवर्क को तैयार किया। 1.5 अरब डॉलर की लागत से बनी इस परियोजना को एशियाई विकास बैंक (एडीबी) से वित्तीय मदद मिली।
• काबुल और मजार-ए-शरीफ को जोड़ने वाली सड़क पर उज्बेकिस्तान ने 11 पुल और क्रॉसिंग भी बनाए।
• उज्बेकिस्तान अफगानिस्तान को बिजली उपलब्ध कराने वाला प्रमुख आपूर्तिकर्ता है। काबुल को बिजली आपूर्ति करने के लिए 2009 में 150 मेगावाट क्षमता की एक विद्युत पारेषण लाइन की आधारशिला रखी गई। बाद में इसकी क्षमता बढ़ाकर 300 मेगावाट कर दी गई।

लगभग 3.2 करोड़ की आबादी के साथ उज्बेकिस्तान मध्य एशिया में सबसे अधिक जनसंख्या वाला देश है। अपनी गतिशील और विविधीकृत अर्थव्यवस्था के साथ यह अफगानिस्तान के राष्ट्रीय पुनर्निर्माण की प्रक्रिया में बहुत मददगार हो सकता है और विशेषकर खाद्य सुरक्षा, ऊर्जा और तकनीकी सहयोग में बहुत सहायक सिद्ध होगा।

उज्बेकिस्तान अफगानिस्तान की ओर से अस्थिरता को लेकर अभी भी आशंकित है कि वहां से अमेरिकी फौज की विदाई के बाद स्थितियां बिगड़ सकती हैं। अफगानिस्तान में असुरक्षा और अस्थिरता का बढ़ा भाव पड़ोसी मध्य एशियाई देशों के लिए भी चिंता का कारण बनेगा। भले ही बड़ी संख्या में उज्बेक अफगानिस्तान में रहते हों, लेकिन अक्सर यह पहलू द्विपक्षीय रिश्तों में निर्णायक रहता है। इस मामले में सुरक्षा चिंताओं और आर्थिक हित सबसे महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका निभाते हैं।

मिर्जियोवेव की पड़ोसियों को वरीयता देने वाली नीति

वर्ष 2016 में सत्ता में आने के बाद राष्ट्रपति मिर्जियोवेव ने दोहराया कि मध्य एशिया ही उनकी विदेश नीति के मूल में होगा। चूंकि उज्बेकिस्तान चारों ओर से जमीन से घिरा देश है तो वह आंतरिक और बाहरी वृद्धि के लिए काफी हद तक पड़ोसियों पर ही निर्भर है। इस बात को ध्यान में रखते हुए मिर्जियोवेव अन्य मध्य एशियाई पड़ोसी देशों के साथ ही अफगानिस्तान के साथ रिश्तों को सुधारने की दिशा में कड़ी मेहनत कर रहे हैं। एक साल में मध्य एशियाई देशों के 12 दौरे और इस दौरान द्विपक्षीय बैठकों के अनगिनत दौरों के साथ ही कई अंतरराष्ट्रीय सम्मेलनों से इतर हुई वार्ताओं से यह साफ तौर पर झलकता है।

वर्ष 2017 के पहले नौ महीनों के दौरान उज्बेकिस्तान और कजाकिस्तान के बीच कारोबार में 30 प्रतिशत की बढ़ोतरी दर्ज की गई। इसी तरह किर्गिस्तान के साथ भी उसके रिश्तों में सुधार हो रहा है जहां सीमाओं को खोलने और जल विवादों को सुलझाने की पहल हुई है। ताजिकिस्तान के मामले में ताशकंद और दुशांबे के बीच 25 वर्षों बाद सीधी उड़ान सेवा शुरू की गई। मिर्जियोवेव की संतुलित, खुली और व्यावहारिक विदेश नीति ने क्षेत्रीय सहयोग की दिशा में सकारात्मक माहौल का निर्माण किया है।

प्रगाढ़ होते उज्बेक -अफगान संबंध

पिछले कुछ महीनों के दौरान उज्बेकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान के रिश्तों में उल्लेखनीय सुधार हुआ है। जनवरी, 2017 में उज्बेकिस्तान के विदेश मंत्री अब्दुलाजिज कामिलोव ने काबुल का आधिकारिक दौरा किया। उस यात्रा के दौरान दोनों पक्षों ने द्विपक्षीय व्यापार को एक अरब डॉलर तक बढ़ाने के लिए द्विपक्षीय व्यापार एवं आर्थिक रोड मैप पर हस्ताक्षर किए। वर्ष 2016 में व्यापार टर्नओवर 52 करोड़ डॉलर रहा। साथ ही परिवहन अवसंरचना, सुरक्षा और मादक पदार्थों की तस्करी रोकने के समझौतों पर भी सहमति बनी।

जून 2007 में अस्ताना में हुई शांघाई सहयोग संगठन (एससीओ) और सितंबर, 2017 में इस्लामिक देशों के संगठन (ओआईसी) के विज्ञान एवं प्रौद्योगिकी सम्मेलन से इतर भी उज्बेक-अफगान राष्ट्रपतियों ने द्विपक्षीय बैठक की। मई, 2017 में मिर्जियोवेव ने इस्मातिल्ला इर्गाशेव को अफगानिस्तान में राष्ट्रपति का विशेष दूत नियुक्त किया।

नवंबर, 2017 में अफगान राष्ट्रीय विमानन सेवा काम एयर ने ताशकंद और काबुल के बीच पहली सीधी यात्री उड़ान शुरू की। दोनों देशों के बीच विमानन सहयोग में अफगान पायलटों को प्रशिक्षण, काम एयर के विमानों का रखरखाव और ताशकंद में ट्रांजिट सुविधाएं उपलब्ध कराना भी शामिल है।

राष्ट्रपति गनी की दिसंबर, 2017 में उज्बेकिस्तान यात्रा उज्बेक-अफगान रिश्तों को आगे ले जाने का महत्वपूर्ण कदम रही। दोनों राष्ट्रपतियों ने छोटे से लेकर बड़े और व्यापक विषयों पर बात करते हुए संयुक्त बयान पर हस्ताक्षर किए। इस दौरान व्यापार, सुरक्षा, विद्युत और शिक्षा जैसे क्षेत्रों में 20 अंतरमंत्रीय समझौते हुए। इसमें कुछ अग्रलिखित बिंदुओं पर सहमति बनी:-

• हेरात और मजार-ए-शरीफ के बीच रेलवे लाइन निर्माण का अनुबंध।
• 500 किलोवाट क्षमता वाली सुरखान-पुल-ए-खुमरी विद्युत पारेषण लाइन का निर्माण।
• सुरक्षा मामलों पर संयुक्त आयोग की स्थापना।
• हेरातन सेतु की सुरक्षा को लेकर सहयोग पर समझौता।
• काबुल और मजार-ए-शरीफ में उज्बेक-अफगान ट्रेडिंग हाउस के साथ ही तरमेज में इंटरनेशनल लॉजिस्टिक सेंटर की स्थापना।
• सीमावर्ती शहर तरमेज में अफगान काउंसलेट को खोलना।

दोनों देशों ने अंतरराष्ट्रीय आतंकवाद और विदेशी लड़ाकों, अतिवाद, संगठित अपराध, अवैध आव्रजन और अवैध चीजों और मादक पदार्थों की तस्करी को रोकने के लिए संयुक्त कार्रवाई पर भी सहमति जताई। दोनों राष्ट्रपतियों ने अफगान-नेतृत्व के माध्यम से अफगानिस्तान सरकार और तालिबान के बीच शांति के साथ कोई राजनीतिक हल निकालने पर भी जोर दिया। इस बात पर जोर दिया गया कि इसमें कोई भी राजनीतिक समझौता संयुक्त राष्ट्र चार्टर में उल्लिखित मूलभूत अंतरराष्टीय प्रावधानों और सिद्धांतों के अनुरूप होना चाहिए।

निष्कर्ष

चूंकि उज्बेकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान पड़ोसी देश हैं तो एक दूसरे की विदेश नीति में महत्वपूर्ण स्थान रखते हैं। अफगानिस्तान में सुरक्षा स्थिति का मध्य एशिया की सुरक्षा और स्थायित्व पर सीधा असर पड़ सकता है। ऐसे में शांति बहाली की प्रक्रिया में उज्बेकिस्तान अफगान सरकार को पूरा सहयोग दे रहा है। साथ ही अफगानिस्तान को क्षेत्रीय आर्थिक प्रगति का हिस्सा बनाने के लिए उसे परिवहन और ऊर्जा के क्षेत्र में भी मदद कर रहा है।

भारत ने भी अफगानिस्तान के साथ अपनी मित्रता को और गहराई दी है जिसमें राजनीतिक, सुरक्षा, आर्थिक, शैक्षणिक, सांस्कृतिक और मानवीय क्षेत्रों में संबंधों को नया क्षितिज मिला है। अभी हाल में ही हमने ईरान स्थित चाबहार बंदरगार के माध्यम से 15,000 टन गेहूं की शुरुआती खेप अफगानिस्तान पहुंचाई है। इसके माध्यम से अफगानिस्तान और मध्य एशियाई देशों के साथ व्यापार एवं आवाजाही हेतु भारत के लिए एक नया रास्ता खुला है। व्यापार, संपर्क, ऊर्जा और सुरक्षा जैसे क्षेत्रों में बढ़ता सहयोग भारत, उज्बेकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान जैसी क्षेत्रीय शक्तियों को और करीब ला सकता है जो हजारों वर्षों के ऐतिहासिक एवं सांस्कृतिक संबंधो को और प्रगाढ़ बनाएगा।

(लेख में व्यक्त विचारों से वीआईएफ की सहमति अनिवार्य नहीं है)

Tripura and a North-Eastern Perspective

30 Jan, 2018 | Gautam Sen

India`s north-east is a fascinating geo-political entity in the country`s internal context. The developments in the region, or rather the sub-region, has continued to have ramifications since the first decade of India`s nationhood, both internally and in its south and south-eastern periphery. An interesting aspect is that each of the components of the region i.e., the North-Eastern States, have different attributes, politically and economically, as well as from the development and security perspectives. While the region has a predominant mongoloid ethnicity, the North-Eastern State of Tripura (Twipra in local Kokborok dialect, meaning `land by the water`), has been a melting pot of indigenous ethnic-tribal cultural collective of Tibeto-Burman stock – the Tiprasa, and of Bengali aspirations, traditions and way of life imbibed particularly from the migrants or settlers from the eastern districts of erstwhile East Bengal, now Bangladesh.

It may be worthwhile to appraise how the different strands coalesced into a mix of cultures and inescapably impinged on socio-economic development, political consolidation, economic growth and internal security milieu of Tripura. In a sense, Tripura is mini replica of West Bengal, but in many respects it is also substantially different. Tripura, at the government level and in its inhabitants’ psyche, has not been generally acknowledged as a `mini` West Bengal or even its sister state. This has been the outlook even when the Indian National Congress (INC) was in power in both the states. Same has been the situation after the Communists came to govern both the states, notwithstanding fraternalisation between the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) units of and West Bengal Tripura, and their leaders.

The state of administration, political processes and developments, economy and the security environment of the two provinces i.e. of West Bengal and Tripura, have been quite dissimilar. Tripura has been trying to evolve from its princely state antecedents and under-developed past to a province within the Indian Union yearning for development, and ethno-cultural and political stability, in harmonious juxtaposition with its neighbouring North-Eastern States. Being land-locked and at a distant South-East corner of the region have been the constraints for Tripura. Not that the different state governments of Tripura or union governments were oblivious to these impediments, but the geopolitical milieu around the North-East and the post-independence growth deficit have compounded the constraints. The unfortunate tribal uprising in the 1980’s and the Mandwai massacre in June 1980, when the ethnic tribals slaughtered a large number of Bengalis, were the outcome of politico-economic contestations between different segments of the State’s population; it was also indicative of successive State Administration`s inability to respond to the demand of its indigenous people for land rights, protection of their forest resource-base livelihood and culture. Notwithstanding a politically cohesive and livelihood issues-based approach of CPI-M governments of the past two decades - to the extent of broadly accommodating indigenous tribal interests harmoniously with those of the settler Bengalis - some underlying tension has remained in the socio-political realm of the State.

The State has been unique to the extent that it gave substantive political space to the indigenous tribals through the medium of the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), headquartered at Khumulwng in the West district. The TTAADC was constituted through an enactment of India`s Parliament, included in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, and made effective from 1st April, 1985. The TTAADC encompasses more than two-thirds of the State, with only a few fringe border areas in South-West Tripura outside its territorial ambit. This implies that, nearly the whole of Tripura has a dualism in its administrative structure and disposition. Though functional areas of governance and sanctioning powers are well demarcated between the State Government and the TTAADC, most of Tripura is administered vis-à-vis their respective domains by two entities, i.e. the State Secretariat at Agartala and the TTAADC. 15 departments, including management of land other than of government, forests, water resources, public health, school-level academic institutions, and some more, are under the control of TTAADC, with nearly 15 lakh people served by this autonomous body. It has revenue raising powers of taxing goods, animals, vehicles, boats and professional earnings to mobilise funds for executing programmatic functions pertaining to the areas devolved to it. The State Government also shares a part of its revenue with the TTAADC, apropos central and state finance commissions’ recommendations. The institutional arrangements cited above have been quite farsighted and has stood the test of more than three decades of governance.

However, a devolutionary arrangement like the TTAADC would not have succeeded had not the bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh been conducive. The problem of insurgency, which arose consequent on alienation of the indigenous tribal people, was aggravated because of the sanctuary provided by Bangladesh governments to the armed cadres of the local insurgent outfits, viz. the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and All Tripura Tiger Force (ATFF), and their leaders. These outfits spearheaded the insurgency and espoused the indigenous peoples’ cause, infiltrated into Tripura from across an Tripura-Bangladesh Border traversing riverine terrain, agricultural tracts and forests, and virtually unfenced till the border fencing programme was taken up seriously in the 1990’s. The fact that the border guarding forces of India and Bangladesh were not in really friendly disposition, particularly during the regime of Sheikh Khaleda Zia and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party, aggravated the internal security situation in Tripura.

Consequent on the Awami League Government coming to power in Bangladesh in 2009, there was substantial improvement in bilateral relations between the two countries. Dhaka took decisive action to close down the hideouts of the NLFT and ATTF insurgents in Bangladesh and deport some of their leaders to India, leading to stability in border management and the security scenario in Tripura. Enhancement of professional prowess of the State’s police personnel and effectiveness of administration, with a conjoint approach by the Union and State Governments, notwithstanding that they were of different political orientation, facilitated this positive change. This is borne out by the National Crime Records Bureau data of the recent years (post-2016) which indicate less than 5000 cases of reported cognizable offences for a population of approximately 40 lakh.

The issues which presently require attention or intervention are : (a) political adjustment or understanding on the enhancement of powers and functional capacity of the TTADC; (b) further strengthening of the State’s rights-based economic delivery systems; and, (c) greater institutionalised development along the India-Tripura frontier areas in terms of sustainable growth, welfare and security. The salience of these issues are highlighted in the backdrop of the recent demand for full statehood encompassing the existing TTAADC area - notwithstanding the demand being politically inspired and projected on narrow ethnic considerations - for integrated development of the State and obviating sectarian tension. Among the North-Eastern States, Tripura has been performing well towards putting in place effective grassroot delivery systems, agricultural growth, mobilisation of investible resources with a credit-deposit ratio of nearly 35 percent insofar as the banking network is concerned, and management of the State’s finances. However, towards boosting its informal economy and its progressive formalisation, employment generation and having a garland network of small-scale development hubs along the Tripura-Bangladesh Border, there is a need to reinforce the present scale of development activities and for the authorities at Agartala and New Delhi to work as part of one continuum.

In the heat of the approaching State Assembly elections, the demand for statehood of the TTAADC area has been escalated by the Indigenous People’s Front of Twipra (IPFT) and the situation in parts of the State become contentious. The IPFT demands are for introduction of an Inner Line Permit system to control inflow of non-indigenous people to Tripura and their settling down into economic activities in the State, recognition of Kokborok tribal language as a medium of official communication and education, and 50 percent reservation of seats for the tribals in the State Legislature. The Central Government has constituted an internal committee to delve into the demands to obtain a viable solution for the indigenous peoples’ demand for statehood, as projected by the IPFT, without eroding the structure and basis of the Tripura State. The demand, if acceded to in its entirety, will have repercussions on the State itself, apart from triggering further demands on similar lines in many other North-Eastern States having ethnic diversity like Assam, Mizoram and Manipur, and perhaps also in the West Bengal areas affected by the Gorkhaland agitation.

Furthermore, a Twipra Tribal province will substantively disrupt the integrity and cohesion of the present Tripura State and pose issues on its effective administrative management from politico-economic and security perspectives. The State shares a 856 km long frontier with Bangladesh. There is presently a high level of coordination between the state and central armed police forces deployed in Tripura. Gradual extension of border ‘haats’ (markets) is a welcome phenomenon for Tripura`s development, stability of the border and bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh. Border haats are already functional at Srinagar (South district) and Kamalasagar (Sipahijhala district), and two more at Palbasti (North district) and Kamalpur (Dhalai district) are on the anvil. The haats are informal markets for exchange of local produce of the border and near-border areas and items of household usage in Tripura and Bangladesh on barter basis; to an extent, currencies of the respective countries are validated based on informal understanding on exchange value, without customs duty, that is intended to improve livelihood of the border area residents. An annual turnover of approximately Rs. 10 crore from these four haats is anticipated. Substantial improvement in rail connectivity to Tripura through Assam, and to the border point of Agartala-Akhaura for trans-shipment of men and material is also in progress. An integrated check post and transit facility at the Agartala-Akhaura Border Point, is also functioning. The impact of creation of a separate State for the Tripura indigenous people on these institutions and facilities need to be carefully appraised before altering the political and constitutional disposition of the State.

While the above-referred issue of indigenous peoples’ demand for statehood has to be dealt with a mature holistic approach, because of its ramifications as mentioned above, the juxtaposition of the State with regard to development and stability of India’s North-Eastern region, as well as apropos `Act East Policy`, have also to be suitably reckoned. The upswing in India’s relations with Bangladesh during the Awami League regimes of Sheikh Hasina has enabled the fruition of the former’s inescapable need for a riverine linkage to Tripura from West Bengal, expeditious transportation of men and material, and infrastructure project stores to Tripura. People-to-people relations through the Agartala-Dhaka bus service and numerous strands of cultural exchanges within the ambience of Bengali language and culture have also blossomed. It is in India’s interest to reinforce these achievements and explore further opportunities for viable linkages, viz. through air and sea connection between, say, West Bengal, Tripura and South-East Asia. This could be achieved within the canopy of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multilateral Sectoral Technical & Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and India`s `Act East Policy`.

The development model being followed in Tripura can accommodate such linkages. The characteristics of the people of Tripura and the state of its economy are likely to facilitate local employment generation in back-end activities of economic ventures and export-oriented establishments of the State in commerce with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. In the process, a gradual formalisation of the Tripura`s economy will also take place. Increasing the economic viability of the state`s rubber plantations, improved latex and other bi-products’ processing, and increasing the productivity of the State`s agriculture and allied sectors, viz. horticulture and fisheries, are some of the activities which can be gainfully attempted within the framework of Government of India’s development policies for the North-Eastern Region - thus leading to higher employment within Tripura and trade linkages with Bangladesh and the ASEAN region. All these activities can co-exist for some time with the rubric of grassroot exchanges through the medium of border haats. In such a scenario, Tripura can serve as a model of stability and growth in India’s North-Eastern Region, while performing a reasonably contributory role towards promotion of the country’s `Act East` initiative.

Within the intra-north-eastern domain, Tripura has geographical and socio-economic linkages with Assam and Mizoram, States with which it shares inter-state boundaries of 53 km and 109 km respectively. Till recently, National Highway-44, linking Guwahati, Shillong, Badarpur and Agartala, was the only durable road link between Assam and Tripura. It is necessary to improve this arterial link to all-weather condition and international surface standard. This infrastructural link has a relevance towards promoting inter-state commerce within North-Eastern Region as well as for providing a lateral connectivity to the prospective Trans-Asian Highway which is to eventually link the region with Myanmar and Thailand. As regards Tripura and Mizoram, there is a need for ethnic harmony in both the States. The travails of the Reangs and Chakmas in Mizoram in the 1990’s and the last decade, consequent on impediments imposed by that State on their cultural expression and lack of development, are required to be redressed on a long-term basis. Otherwise, internal displacement of these communities to Tripura, as in the late 1990’s, will only strain the State’s resources and adversely impact its internal socio-political harmony. Instituting effective autonomous councils for these ethnic communities in Mizoram is the most viable way to prevent negative fallouts in both these states.

Tripura is a energy storehouse of the North-East by virtue of its substantial petroleum and natural gas reserves. A common market approach, based on an integrated power grid system, is an inescapable need. Already electricity transmission has commenced from the gas-based power projects of the State to Bangladesh. An institutional arrangement is necessary for joint India-Bangladesh management of a Tripura-energy based network under an agreed equity partnership of assets. Such an arrangement will not require periodic negotiations between India and Bangladesh on product or output pricing, but instead be based on the overall economics of the joint venture. Tripura State Government will perforce have to be the main Indian stake holder apart from Indian investors who evince interest. Energy development and marketing on a partnership basis as above, is likely to provide opportunities and resources for upgrading and modernisation of the gas wells in Tripura, apart from additional employment in the state in ancillary activities.

(The author is a retired senior IDAS officer who has served as Adviser to a North-East State)

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)